저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 금은 인플레이션 헤지로 여겨지지만 장기적으로 나쁜 투자라고 주장한다. 버핏의 핵심 주장: 금은 생산성이 없는 자산이며, 100년 보유해도 금 1온스는 그대로 1온스일 뿐이다. 반면 농지는 매년 작물을 생산하고, 주식은 배당을 지급한다. 버핏의 수치 근거: 1900년 초 다우지수는 약 66, 금은 20달러였고 100년 후 금은 약 11,400달러였으나 다우는 배당 누적으로 훨씬 큰 수익을 냈다. 버크셔 주가도 금 대비 크게 상승했다고 언급. 버핏의 금 투자자 비판: 금 투자자들은 종이화폐 가치 하락이라는 전제는 맞지만 투자 이론에서 틀렸다고 평가한다. 금 옹호자들이 사람들을 겁주려는 동기가 있다고 지적. 영상 진행자 부연: 금은 가격 상승이 수요 증가에만 의존하는 구조적 불리함이 있으며, 주식·부동산·농지 같은 생산적 자산이 장기적으로 크게 앞선다고 설명. 비교 사례: 코카콜라 주식을 2007년에 매수해 보유했다면 이익 창출이 누적되었지만 금은 아무것도 주지 않았다. S&P500은 최근 10년 연평균 약 14.3%(배당 제외) 수익률을 보였다. 최근 10년 성과: 2011년 10월 약 2,100달러였던 금이 2021년 10월 약 1,800~1,900달러 수준으로 마이너스 수익률을 기록했으며, 인플레이션율도 따라잡지 못했다. 진행자는 이 기간 금을 사는 대신 집에 현금을 두는 편이 나았다고 말한다. 결론: 장기 투자에서 금보다 생산적 자산이 우월하며, 금은 단기적 공포 수요에 의존하는 자산이라는 것. 주의: 영상 시점은 2021년 11월로, 금 가격 등 수치는 당시 기준이다.
다듬은 글
okay so it's no secret that the united states and frankly the entire world is experiencing high levels of inflation that most countries around the world haven't experienced in decades you're probably seeing this inflation which refers to things that are becoming more expensive in your everyday life whether it is prices at the grocery store gas for your car or even just the rent you pay for your apartment inflation has resulted in higher prices for nearly everything so how do you as an investor deal with that well conventional wisdom says that you should be investing in things like gold as a hedge against inflation but not so fast here's legendary investor warren buffett explaining why gold is a lousy investment even when there is inflation you had a shareholder who asked you a question about gold over the weekend and your response was pretty interesting berkshire versus gold you want to talk about how that's performed over the years yeah but we can go beyond that but certainly when we took over berkshire uh berkshire was selling at 15 a share and gold was selling at 20 an ounce and then gold is now 1600 and berkshire's 120 000.
but but you can take a broader example than that if if you if you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it 100 years you can go to it every day and you could you can cool to it and you can caress it and and you can fondle it and and and 100 years from now you'll have one ounce of gold and it won't have done anything for you in between if you buy 100 acres of farmland it will produce for you every year you can use that money to buy more farmland you can do it all kinds of things but for a hundred years it will produce things for you and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of the 100 years you could buy the dow jones industrial average for 66 at the start of 1900 gold was then 20 at the end it was 11 400 but you'd all gotten dividends for 100 years so a productive asset of any kind a decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time now in any given one-year period five-year period any asset can outperform another asset tulips why don't you why don't you join me why don't you join me and buy some cows i mean i like your farmland but you know you're in nebraska for iowa you love steak i mean we we can have leather we can have um manure we can have milk we can have meat we'll employ them you can have the manure i'll take the meat i've got plenty of the manure no but we employ people taking care of the cows i mean yeah little bar of gold that's worth 50 whatever we had one in here look i think it was worth like 60 or 70 000 i can get like so many head of cattle for that and and be product that was my point i but you like farmland you just too lazy to take care of the cattle or something pay some people absolutely absolutely have you ever tried to take care of cattle joe it must be i think it might be hard i i know i've tipped a few but i've never uh have you i've now i hope you have not kissed that that's mean it's cool they're sweet they're sweet but they're not too bright like me with land you can get somebody else to do all the work give them a percentage of the crop and you can sit back there for 100 years and get a percentage of the crop and you still got the land when you get all through i will guarantee you that farm land over 100 years is going to be gold and solar solar equities why do you think gold bugs gets so irate because they really come out yeah it's very interesting if you if you go on cnbc and say that bonds are kind of a poor investment you know people don't get mad at you you don't even hear from the treasury i mean you can you can knock almost any investment and people may get a little irritated but when you talk about gold uh and of course that says something about about their motivations for ownership they want people to agree with them they want people everybody they want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold and and caves may like might be a better investment than gold i mean at least they're not producing more caves all the time so they want they want people to be as afraid as they are because that's that's what's going to produce an increase in prices incidentally their right to be afraid of paper money i mean they they have a very their basic premise that that paper money around the world is going to get worth less and less and less over time is is absolutely correct but you just disagree with the investment theory beyond that yeah yeah where they run from that and and they should run from it uh is where in my view they make the mistake but they have a correct basic premise okay i want to elaborate on one of the points that buffett made that really explains why gold is a poor investment over the long term yes gold may outperform what buffett refers to as productive assets such as stocks over short periods of time call it months a year or even five years but over an investing lifetime productive assets will significantly outperform gold this is because gold is at a structural disadvantage to other investments let me explain why by comparing gold to other investments meet john our hypothetical investor for this example let's say john has been working hard and saving money and he now has 100 thousand dollars to invest let's look at the investment choices he has gold real estate farmland or stocks if he invests that 100 000 in gold the only way john will make money is if the price of gold increases however since gold does not produce anything the only way this will happen is if demand for gold increases while the supply of it remains constant that is economics 101 this is what warren buffett means when he calls gold an unproductive asset this becomes especially apparent when you compare gold to the other investment alternatives if john would instead put that 100 thousand dollars into real estate let's say it's a small house that he can rent out to tenants every single month that house is rented to tenants john is going to receive a rent check so at the end of each month john still owns the house but that house has produced rental income for him so not only does john benefit from the house going up in value likely every year he also gets income from renting that house out and guess what rents go up pretty much every year so the rental income john receives from the house will likely increase every year as well real estate checks the box of being a productive asset next up is farmland if john buys a few acres of farmland every year that farmland produces crops for john these crops can then be sold and turned into cash farmland 2 checks the box for being a productive asset and though we have stocks while it is true that like gold the value of a stock is also based on supply and demand over the long term the value of the stock is based upon the profits the underlying business produces over its lifetime as warren buffett's mentor the legendary ben graham said in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine and if you want to check out the video i did summarizing ben graham's book the intelligent investor you can check it out here look at coca-cola stock for example if you had bought a share of coca-cola stock back in 2007 and held it until now look at what the company would have produced for you in the way of earnings however gold over that same period of time would have produced nothing for you as an owner this is why gold as an investment is at a structural disadvantage compared to productive assets if you need any more proof take a look at the 10-year chart of the s p 500 over the last 10 years the average annual return of the s p 500 has been 14.3 percent not including dividends how exactly does that compare to gold maybe you're thinking gold returned 12 or 10 or maybe even 8 of things were really bad all of these are wrong the real answer is much worse over the last 10 years the return on owning gold has actually been negative gold was selling for around 2100 an ounce in october 2011 and is now selling for about hundred dollars an ounce at the time this video is being made in october 2021 so much for being a store of value the return on gold hasn't even kept up with the inflation rate during the last 10 years you would have been better off keeping your money under your mattress at home over the past 10 years than investing in gold so there we have it i hope you guys enjoyed this video and learned something new if you haven't already make sure to like this video arting the world's greatest investors talk to you next time
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