저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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Harry Dent의 2024년 대폭락(약 90%, 1929~32급) 예측을 반박. 과거 예측이 여러 차례 빗나갔고, 주식은 인덱스 자금·알고리즘 매수로 급락 완충, 주택은 2008년(약 27%)보다 낙폭이 클 근거 없음. 금리 인하 전망으로 TLT(장기채) 매력 언급, 정기 인덱스 투자 강조.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two stup G socks I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and today we want to talk about some of these doomsday predictions in particular there was an article that came out about Harry Dent talking about how 2024 is going to be the greatest crash of all time you know prepare your butthole and just get ready for it because it's going to be brutal is basically what the tone of this article was but we're GNA break it down a little bit Point by point we see what he says two stupid guys Tre STS right no boy well I'd honestly never heard of Harry Dent until we started talking about Michael bur and a lot of his doomsday predictions and you know basically what people were saying is like oh you should kle this other guy and you know he's uh it's it's interesting to to listen to some of his points certainly then they have some validity to them but like you know it takes it to an extreme kind of media grabbing sort of thing but if you all remember this famous One by by bur here talking about how this is the greatest speculative bubble Of All Times by two orders of magnitude Harry Dent really has been echoing the same sentiment and he's going to say even definitively 2024 is when we see it come to fruition as far as just be clear he was wrong they're both wrong they're both if you say there's a crash every year eventually you're going to be right so yeah this is that famous they've predicted a hundred of the last two crashes scenario you know that works you know not to say that you shouldn't pay attention to them because it's always good to kind of understand the issues that maybe developing in the market and you people going highlight it so this is this is kind of like a article that was about the the video he put out where he's talking about this everything bubble across stocks and crypto and housing and that's gonna burst particularly in 2024 and he goes on to make some very precise predictions which make it very easy to refute and show you just exactly how dramatic he's being all right so we've actually I I think it was 2022 or 2023 we actually looked at his because he gave a month one time and we did multiple videos like didn't happen yeah High exactly that was I think it was like March like 23 like not even close no no exactly um you know greatest crash of our lifetime you start saying things like that that's that's pretty what's the word I want to say dramatic right you know you're talking about major life-changing things economic cycles that can make or break you right you know this is the stuff where you set up generational wealth or destroy it and lose it all in once and he also highlighted government spending here which has kind of been a news cycle in the last week or so as we kind of crested a a new mark in in US government that I'm not sure if you saw the presentation or if you were familiar with the the levels we're at but it's pretty crazy um so you know basic like I said he's saying the biggest single crash a year we'll ever see in our lifetimes is going to be this year uh he talks about the creating of the everything bubble and asset prices and how um you know sp500 fell sharply this is 2022 he's talking about that 2023 it kind of rebounded and then house prices have also surged to record highs despite the elevated mortgage rates we're still seeing you know know home prices stay significantly elevated and this is where he goes on to make his kind of size of his prediction the crash is not going to be a correction okay this is going to be more like 1929 to 1932 level right we we've heard of that but I don't know if you know off the top of your head like how how large was the crash of the you know the the Great Depression here do you have an concept 50 uh no it's even larger than that oh God yeah it's at almost 90% % Crash from Peak to trough that's what he's calling for do do you think there there's any chance in the hell we we approach a 90% Peak to trough crash no no okay well any chance in hell yes like 1% but yeah no this is when World War III potentially breaks out you know obviously is a possibility unfortunately if you read the news but it's it's a completely different environment right like imagine Apple or Google or meta who bring in billions and billions like 20 billion a quarter for some of these companies imagine them going from what's Google at so40 so $13 a share okay I would love to buy some Google at that would be great I don't that's not going it's not going to happen and it let's say you say Google all right they crashed cuz they did something terrible but there's no way you're going to have all of these companies that are literally worth 40 % of the Spy because they bring in together trillions of dollars it's the sales are there so it just doesn't it's not going to work yeah I 90% is an absolutely ridiculous number no like that that that is something that you know this this is mind you this this happened before the S&P 500 Index even like existed right we have all this indexed money now I don't think the index money would would allow something like that to happen because it's going to provide a like kind of a a cushion or a sock shock absorber is probably the word I'm looking for um would be my thought process you're not gonna see anything that violent in terms of swings no you're also going to have hedge funds as soon as spy hits an insane low where they're going to have algorithms start going off and buying everything possible because it's just you can't have apple at $20 a share and also making 30 billion a quarter or 20 billion a qu that's not a thing yeah I know well you you would see the kind of algorithmic trading would accelerate the the downward pressure in the short term all 1987 kind of stock market crash um so you know initially that that kind of can add more F you know gasoline to the fire for a short period of time U but I agree it would ultimately probably limit the the downward you know movement um but this is important to kind of keep in mind too here is I'm the guy that's praying for a crash everybody else is not you know that that that's his don't forget that that's his idea is that he wants this to have happen and one of the ways you can make something like this happen is right is by by dispersing this information by sewing these seeds you know that's why you see these like really prominent bears that are out there in community constantly and throwing this information out there is because they want everyone to kind of be a little fearful and think that maybe he's right maybe this is the big one maybe this is what's gonna happen right does that make sense yeah no it's it's um it's a self-fulfilling prophecy idea but when you say it every year and also give a precise month and then you're wrong just seemingly every time but like twice I don't it just loses weight well he went on to make another prediction basically talking about like the housing market although you know not exactly but imagine no not only can you buy the house you want at half off so he was saying around a 50% decline in housing if that were to be believ as like an actual you know uh you know what's word I want to say a concrete data point of half right um I wanted ah Hadad and go maybe go back look at the 2008 financial crisis to see like what was the peak that tro there uh was it as significant as I don't think it was anywhere close to half off um in reality it was about 27% so it was about a quarter uh the fall from Peak the trough and don't forget just how artificially hot garbage the housing market was before this you know great financial recession right we're talking about remember this scene from yeah The Big Short it's like we're talking about or something strippers with multiple houses and you know constantly doing refinancing their loans because they're in interest only mortgages things like that that doesn't exist right now you know that there're very very few you need to have a massive pile of kindling in order to be able to throw an ember on it and get a fire like you did back in 2008 where it was 27% and he's talking about 50% we have nowhere near the artificial garbage propping up the market right now we also have hedge funds buying up houses left and right so the demand is still there not that I agree with it but but the demand is still there so it doesn't make sense exactly and then you know you had whole neighborhoods uh uh being built that were just vacant Lots effectively or vacant vacant homes you know this is not what we're seeing heading into this kind of economic tightening cycle so that to think of the fact that he's calling now for a larger reduction like that even doesn't even Broach like anything on reality you know that you know might as well start selling property on Mars if you think this is actually going to make sense uh so this is kind of the number I was talking about alluded to earlier we just cost $34 trillion this week you know there a big moment for the US uh you know very nice is it weird that I think the debt per taxpayer of 264,000 see actually just debt per citizen of 101,000 so like my 11-month old baby already 100K in debt yeah oh boy yeah obviously that's a but you know Dave Ramsey needs to start addressing the real problems of this country okay you know even though if you can completely eliminate all your personal debt you're still hundreds of thousand dollars in government debt what the hell you know there's no getting out of this that's absolutely disgusting oh wait let me these are numbers interesting let me move my face the US federal debt to GDP yeah you you can actually go and Google uh this is like US debt clock or something like that as far as the website there's they slice it and dice it 8,000 ways your States also have individual debt that is in the order of I didn't look up yours but like you know it can be tens of thousand thousand of dollars per citizen as well so yeah your your 11mon old $100,000 and and federal government debt also has another 10K probably at least in state that I'm in Arizona I'm gonna say we're not in a in in as much date debt as other states quite potentially potentially um uh I just want to look at this too briefly we talk about like the kind of bond interest rates right so as interest rates um start to go down the price of the bond will go up they have that reciprocal nature right um The Dot Plot for the Federal Reserve for the most recent meeting called for three 25 basis point uh Cuts in 2024 if you look at the CME fed watch tool which basically the market betting on what they think inter trates are going to do if you look at December 2024 you know the blue basically indicates like the the highest percentage this is where they think the most likely kind of Target area for the fedun funds rate will be as you notice the numbers get you know kind of lower as we go out because it's more more and more uncertain um but if you're tracking to the the highest likelihood one which is 350 to 375 for the FED funds base rate that's like a 1.75% cut so they're saying now not going to get the three basis 325 basis point cuts that the Federal Reserve was pricing in they're saying GNA get an additional percent above that yeah so they're saying the r gonna get agressively cut by almost 2% next year it's great for the TLT trade baby the TLT trade yeah true after yeah one thing I want to just highlight with this is you know you hear all this noise about um you know timing the market and all these doomsday scenarios 2024 is be horrible you know what does that tell you to try to do that tells you oh I maybe I should be saving up cash I can buy when Google hits $13 a share that that is not the way to trade though based upon all historical data you know is the encapsulation yeah unless it happens um you know at 13 a share go out get yourself another job okay you start flipping hamburgers earning a share of Google an hour okay yeah absolutely that's how you keep create generational wealth right there um but it's time in the market is what matters the most right this is setting up your automatic investments just putting money into it this is what I've been doing with majority of my kind of contributions now um just Index Fund investing on a regular time basis stop thinking about it because the more you think about it the more you're going to screw up and hurt yourself in the long run solid solid yeah so this is TLT um I believe this is oh this is the housing crisis right this is this is the 2008 crisis all right the the goal here is I'm just trying to show you what happens to bonds during recession so we're at a really unique point with TLT we've done multiple videos on TLT but essentially uh as interest rates are going to be cut TLT logically doesn't mean it has to be but logically since it has an inverse relationship should also increase in addition this is what happens during recessions not only because of rate creases but because of other things bunch of factors but here is TLT shooting up sexy daddy going from like one or 90 to like 120 so yeah 33% go to the next slide and this is the stock market so do the exact opposite all right yeah fight the safety right people buy things per the safer yeah exactly L go to the next slide this is your spy during Co okay wow I don't think anyone would have predicted that this this after it's crazy not at all no i% fed printer running right there and then this is your TLT hit hit essentially alltime highs all right yeah so we're chilling around 95 we're actually right at the like 200 moving average um I am not loading up more I have I think I have 350 shares um I'm not loading up more but as if it approaches like 93 is I'm going to sell puts cash secured puts because this is kind of an accumulation of Fairly ideal conditions for bonds right bonds got hammered to hell we had an interest rate that we have not seen in a very long time like I don't know 17 years or something some somewhere around there yeah um everyone fled to stocks and now you have a possible recession even though people still are thinking it's a soft Landing it's still going to be great for bonds so I am thinking about putting more money in but I'm I'm biing my time here all right and don't forget the lesson from the Congressional video we did last week too what what did Congress invest in last year Bond Bond there you go you always follow Nancy Pelosi follow the money follow the money all right all right guys catch you the next one
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