저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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2024 중간 예산 발표 직후 인터뷰. 재생에너지·수소·방산·철도·PSU 등 정부 정책 섹터가 1년간 많이 올라 가격에 상당 부분 선반영됐다고 봄. 시장 단기 조정 가능성을 언급하며 본인 보유주는 20~25%까지 하락을 감내할 수 있다고 함. 소형주·신규투자자 유입에 따른 거품 우려, 장기 인프라 성장 기대는 유지. 투자 방법으로 펀더멘털 괴리 시 매도 후 재투자, 장기 보유 강조.
다듬은 글
What is the perspective for markets and for investors right now to speak on all of this and more? I have with me someone who I think goes viral every time he speaks as an investor, Vijay Keria, with us at the NDTV Profit Studios. Vijay ji, it feels very good to meet you today on the budget day. You saw the budget, digested it, and what came out of it, I belched.
It was such a good budget that my soul was satisfied, that is why I said it was a good budget. And what about the rest of the budget, it was an interim budget, as we all know that in this, the Finance Minister was not going to give the dividend cheque in his own hand, but the direction and the guidance that he has given, he did it and one thing you should understand is that there was a sync between what people in the market think and the budget was presented like what I am trying to tell you in this, the names of the Finance Minister took during the budget like renewable energy like hydrogen like airport Like tourism, like PSUs, like railways and defence, and the market is bullish in these sectors in the last one year, so there has been a sink between what investors are thinking and what FM has presented, so the market understands the pulse of the government and also understands the pulse of the market, you know, but this pulse did not seem to be missing, one you saw the way the market responded tepidly, not a very excitedly [laughs].
First, let me answer your first question, you understand that all these sectors have grown two times, three times, four times, five times in a year. There are many sectors like defence, if you talk about them, all these things are in price. Right now, when does the new market grow with the government, when something unexpected happens, all the things will be discounted.
If there is a price drop on everything, then the market needs oxygen to grow. Right now, the oxygen is empty liquidity, everything else is more or less. Here in the market, I feel that there is a discount on how much order the company has from the government. What is the budget, how much is the expansion, how much is happening, all these things are known by everyone now, there is nothing in calling it a surprise, by saying this it seems that even when something good comes and there is a trend in our market that buy on rumours and sell on news, so when the news comes, then after that, if you look at the market a little, first the prices increase, then when the company's report comes, then the prices fall because it is at a discount earlier, so the market is different and the economy is different, in the sense both are together, but the reaction or action that happens in the market first, where is the direction of things for the market, if you are saying that the good things or the positive triggers are largely discounted, Jerome Powell ji also did not bother much, he said that yes there will be a rate cut, but it will not happen in March, you have an election coming up, the market has mostly discounted that too, we will see the continuity stability, so where is the next trigger, the next trigger is true, I do not think that the market is as it is today, even the GST figures There was an all- time high collection of Rs 172,000 crore, whatever you see, everything is positive, so I don't think that the next trigger will be any internal trigger, perhaps in my opinion, there is nothing like that.
And as you said, elections too, of course, are discounted, and ever since Nitish ji has come, he has joined this government, now only Rahul Gandhi is left to join, so what I mean to say is that the kind of environment that is being created, it seems that the morale is discounted, so if some external factor is created, it could be an external factor, which could put some brakes on it, or like what happens in the market here, one by one, you keep taking fools, you need a bigger fool than yourself, you need a bigger fool than yourself who can free you and he himself gets trapped, so how long does this continue, one should see, one should be a little cautious, this is what I think, no, I wo n't say fools, but from this definition, you should see that a lot of new investors have come into the market, a lot of new investors.
Now, have you had your first experience as one of pretty much what ever they by run up massively, you think that phase is now coming to an end, where you will see these huge returns, then huge run up, then judge to be you no more sensible kind of an outlook and expectation, see Tamna ji, what do I think, first of all, while you are talking about you, I am remembering one of my songs, if you permit me, I had written a song earlier, in 21, the market was showing new highs every day, so I had written a song that you are making new highs daily, why are you creating so much hurry, you will fall, why are you moving so fast, why are you scaring people like this, I had written something just now, I have said the entire eight lines, then the market says in the end that what should I do, this is my nature, you are creating so much hurry, so people here want to become rich quickly, everyone wants to become millionaires quickly, so this new investor that you are talking about, this froth is definitely being created in the market There is one more thing I would like to tell you and you should see that if you had seen a few days ago, even last year, if the Sensex had fallen by 500-600 points in a day, then it would have looked like a crush, that the index had fallen by 600 points.
I am talking only about the Sensex, right now you see, the 1500 index of the Sensex has also increased, but 1500-1600 points have started looking common now. It has happened two or three times that the index fell by 1500 points, after which it recovered. What I think is that the index is creating a place, it is creating such a situation that if 1500 points falls, people get into panic, after that it recovers, then people get ready for the second time, that 1500 is not a big deal, so it means that a time will come when it will be known that 5000 points will go away, this 1500 went today, 1500 went yesterday, 1500 went day before yesterday, so this is not the timing.
I also don't know whether this is going to happen tomorrow or after a month or two months, I do n't know, so should we understand that you are watching and thinking about what to do next, what kind of bet should we place, you feel that a correction is yet to come before the elections, it is difficult to say, but I tell people this and I myself also think this and I try to adopt this, that I am sitting with the thought that whatever shares are sitting with me, it is possible that the market will fall, my shares will reach 20-25, so I am mentally prepared for that, that my shares can fall till 15-20, 25 because the increase that has happened inside that also increased due to this bull market, if such a bull market had not happened then look at what happens in a bull market, people make a price today for what is going to happen in 2-3 years, and when there is a recession, when there is a bear market, then we talk about the trailing index, we talk about the trailing numbers that in March 2023, this If you had earned, then today this price is high and if you multiply it by 25 and 26, you will say that this price is low, that is the difference in sentiment, so I look at my stocks like this, okay, if there is a recession, it will fall to 20 or 25, it will fall, so I am okay with it, but the public may not think like this, there is not that much stability for them, what is your advice for those who are looking at new markets, are looking for, you talked about all these sectors, railways, solar energy is the other big one, housing stock like Hatko was zooming right now are those making sense in terms of valuations, some of the shares must be making sense and some of the shares are not making sense and as I said that some time people discount the earnings of 2026, 27, 28 in 2024, so it is a mind game, what do you think, but that happens till Diwali in the market, when a little bit of that post-spring season comes in the market So everybody forgets the past, past, past, two years, four years, even the next quarter and then they start remembering the previous quarter.
So this is the cycle of life here, just like there is a cycle of day and night, there is spring, there is season, similarly this is also a cycle. Right now Diwali is going on here, so it is fine, now the weather is fine, for now it is fine, for now it is fine, it is not known for how long it will remain fine.
So yes, then don't say this, prepare yourself for the fact that the market may fall any time. Vijay ji, we talk about the market, we talk about new investors, but among them there are many such investors who are present in the Indian market today through SIP and look at their numbers, Rs 1000 crore in SIPs in the last month was clocked for them.
May be the preparation of seeing their portfolio come down is not as much, they have also seen a one direction kind of move. What would be your advice for them? I will tell you first of all, this Rs 16700 crore per month is just very Small number that means just 500 crore a day just imagine in a market cap of three and a half to four trillion dollars now if you understand 500 crore daily if it comes under SIP then what is this this is nothing hum log ko aise lagta hai because we have seen 5000 crore coming per month and 7000 crore coming per month so that is why we feel the number is very high but I don't think it is a high number in the country of such a big country and such financial literacy now people are becoming literate about financing and all about investment and so I think this 16000 crore 70000 crore per month is a joke in fact if you ask me I think it will come every week and may be if not soon may be in five seven years it could come daily also 16000 crore one major change what I am seeing in the mindset Of the public of people here in India is this, remember Tamanna ji, earlier we used to talk about roti, cloth and makaan, so that was the logo in India, the movie also came about roti, cloth and makaan, so that was the basic, that was the only requirement that you need roti, cloth and makaan, now things have changed in the last 15 years and mainly for the last 10 years, you will see roti, cloth, makaan and data, now data has become more important than roti, you can diet, you may have food at you know, by following a diet, you should not eat less, whatever you eat, clothes, there are 50, five shirts, one shirt can manage, you can manage with, you can't compromise on data, from waking up in the morning till sleeping at night, good morning till good night, your data is used, even nonsense work will be done, it will be useful, okay, even my driver keeps on using the mobile, just imagine, okay, so what I am saying is roti, cloth, makaan and data, now the fourth edition is roti, cloth, makaan, data And SIP and investment in the market and stock market, so now this is the new edition of roti kapda makaan data and SIP or stock market, so this is becoming a cult in India and this cult when India has a cult, when if there is some fashion trend in India, then you know 100 crore people would feed milk to Lord Ganesha, Sakat man, such a revolution is taking place here, I feel that such a revolution has started in the stock market here, but not everyone has an idea of its ups and downs, the new investors who come, the first timers, they do not understand the integrity of this stock market, but once they get hurt, they leave and when they come back, they become a little smart, so this rotation of theirs continues, well, because of your roti kapda makaan data and SIP, the condition of banks is deteriorating, their deposits are falling, what we are seeing at this time, today the public sector banks have risen after the budget, but the reaction of the banking sector which was seen in our market also, are you worried about this or do you think so It has been an overreaction.
No, no, I am not worried about it. It is not going to make any difference. The way the economy is going to grow, now in the Amrit Kaal, the way we are talking that today we have an economy of 4.5 trillion dollars, whatever it is, we are talking that in 207 it will become an economy of 30 trillion dollars or 35 trillion dollars.
So, all these temporary hiccups that you are talking about, I think all these are temporary, everything will get adjusted in this and once the per capita income increases beyond 00, which economists also say that when the per capita income increases above 2200-2500, then there is a revolution in spending.
So we are on that cusp, at that inflection point and all this will get adjusted in the future. Okay, so let's come to the point now because those who are watching are thinking that Vijay Kediyal is there, he will tell us the solutions, he will tell us the sectors, he will tell us the method, that now At this inflection point in this market, as you said, how to make money, which sectors do you think are right, and is there a need to look at your portfolio right now?
Some companies have grown so much that the fundamentals may not match. If you feel that the fundamentals are not matching, then you should stop yourself from selling. You will be sorry, and if you regret, you will regret after booking a profit. If you feel that there is a mismatch and the fundamentals are not back, then you should sell those shares and buy other shares which you feel are just starting their journey.
So, this is the method you will have to follow. This is my view that invest like a bull, sit like a bear and watch like an eagle. You will have to check your plant every day like a plant, whether it is getting proper nutrition, whether it is getting water, air, water, sunlight, etc. So, after investing once, what work do you have?
This is your You should look after the plant. People will have to adopt this method and give up the obsession of making money quickly. Because most of the people here are unsuccessful in the stock market because they start considering it as gambling or like a casino, they think that money will come immediately and think of making money quickly.
If you consider it as a business, then how will you treat business? The market will reward you as per your perception. If you will treat it like going against the grain, it will prove to be a game for you. So let's come back to the main point. Right now, do you feel that all these sectors and stocks, your self-reliant themes with government push, will work?
You can tell some of your favorite sectors and stocks. What I think is that this Amrit Kaal of ours is going on, there is going to be exponential development and growth in it. There will be exponential growth. It is not that one sector or two sectors will run. I think sectors will run at 90 and all sectors will run.
The difference can be this much that There are some sectors which you can understand will run at a speed of 140 km, some may run at a speed of 80 km, then this will be the kind of development, only then it will be considered as four-pronged development, so I feel that all these themes are going to work and one thing I have understood very well is that India is following the model of China, I feel so because in 1980, we and China were at the same place and after that China's economy became six times bigger than ours, five times, six times bigger than ours in the last 30 years, so it is good that what good things did it do, we should learn from all of us, the biggest contribution in the development that has taken place in China has been of course health and education, but the development that is visible is of infrastructure, so I feel that the government is also thinking the same way about infrastructure, saying this, expansion is happening in all the power sectors, it is happening at airports, ports, roads, railways, defence.
It has been going on and so all these sectors which cater to these things, whatever the government has named, whatever the FM has named today, all these sectors are going to do well, including the PSU banks etc. which you mentioned earlier, they are cheap, they will also do well, so these more or less all the sectors will do well, the timing can be different, they can also fall first, there can be a time wise correction, there can also be a price wise correction, be prepared for that, my last question to you is that in the meantime, what we saw throughout 2023, that small cap and mid cap companies, especially small cap companies, were giving very good returns, do you feel that this trend will continue or is there a need for some caution now?
No, there is a need for caution for sure, this trend is going on, nothing in the stock market moves in a single trend that it will continue forever, it never happens, people forget the past history, the thing is that when a new trend comes and the new people who come, since they have not seen the first one before, they forget the trend, so my People think that this will not work and at some point it will stop, there will be a reaction, there will be a crash, but ultimately the underlying trend of the economy depends on the economy, if ours is good then good stocks will recover immediately and those who do not have the strength, they will probably not, whatever happens to them will happen, alright, before leaving, like we rap, Vijay Kad ji, we cannot leave you without a poem and a song, your message for today's investor, my message for today's investor is that look what is there in the stock market, the most important thing is that here the seasons keep changing, here good weather, bad weather, everything keeps coming, so people should know how to survive here, they should know the quality of staying there, it should not be like a moment's dawn, that the guest is for the whole night, then you come as a guest for one night and earn money, and the market sinks and you are also out, you should not do that work, then your morale will be so broken that you will be ready to play the second innings, if you will not have any morale left in you, then you should think of yourself like this Understand that first [ __ ] is more important, know yourself, what is my attitude, what is my personality, and move in the market with the thought that even if the market sinks, I will stay here, it will not cost me so much money that I should leave, and a new crop has come in the stock market, the retailer is the king, right now, if you ask who is the king, it is the retailer, because of the complete participation of the retailer, this market has shone and they have given a good reply to FIs, they have given a befitting reply to FIs, so the king of this market is the retailer, but all these people are new, they should understand that their time has come, but they should stay, so I wrote a four-line poem, Piyush Goyal ji and Phanve ji had given me an award, which you said, 'S Investor by the way, AC Investor S' means Dubs, so I had given the Ist award, I had recited a poem that stay in every situation, this is the rule of time, the auto driver has become the CM, the tea seller has become the PM, this game is still going on, Karni You are ready, tighten your belt and take up the challenge, now it is your turn, now it is your turn, wow on that note, thank you very much, thank you so much Vijay Kedia ji for joining us, so that was this investor Vijay Kedia on how he views the budget and the journey for the markets and investors g ahe1
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