저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 증시 투자자 저변이 2020년 이후 KYC 간소화로 급격히 확대되었고 향후 수억 명으로 늘 것이라 주장. 2024년 지수 10% 상승 때 중소형주 포트폴리오는 30~70% 하락 가능성을 언급하며 조정은 건전한 과정이라 강조. 외국인 매도와 중소형주 과열(자금 쏠림) 문제를 지적. 중소형주 SIP 중단 권유 발언(타인 인용)에는 반대하며 SIP 유지 및 장기 적립을 권고.
다듬은 글
so till a few years ago investing in equity markets was limited I think to a small part of the population the revolution that you've seen in the last four to five years let's start with that because I think that's the watermark in a sense when you look back at the Indian Equity markets yeah see I started my career in stock market in 1980 so I have seen 45 years of the market and it was extremely primitive uh in uh' 80s and I was also not knowing much about the markets and started building research press and slowly build the company and all but it was going on till about 2020 and somewhere in90s this kyc trouble came for introduction of the clients and it became so notorious that it was taking 8 10 days to open an account and it went on like this till 2020 by 2020 what happened was digal infrastructure was ready for the payment for uh trading uh everything was ready digital infrastruct ready but still kyc was physical and in 2020 thanks to co what they did they removed the physical verification you started getting instead of three lakh customers we started 3 million customers per month wow you must you just said in last 12 months you did 3.8 million customers per month and it is cumula in character it's not a flow it's a accumulation it's like a a dam so uh so number of customers it's not that 3 million came and some other 3 million came next month it is all 185 190 million customers are participating in the market every day in mahak on the best of the day the maybe 50 million people will take a dip here on a average day there will be more than 50 million people who are taking dip so this is Maham mahak and this is just about the start when we go to in 3 years time to 300 million right now we in 190 and see there are some duplication some 40 50% there must be duplication still we'll go to 300 million and my sense is by turn turn of the decade we might be at 500 million so this is a Relentless expansion of the Capital Market this kind of thing happens once in a lifetime these are life-changing things this will change the trajectory of corporate history of India I'm telling you it is just about begun and that's why you must have seen hottest IPO Market in the world you know so there lot of things will happen as we go along but right now there was too much of demand between 2020 and 2024 there excessive demand for the for the stocks and uh so incidentally FIS they turn negative at some point of time as the valuation became really expensive but they have only large GS so when they started selling large caps the entire momentum shifted to mid is small where there was no play there was only one way and the stock went to the roof now the question really is is that Revolution a one-way Revolution Let's come to what is happening in the markets right now and the context of it so yes we have had um a downtick in key indices fiis have been selling at record levels we've had maybe two consecutive I say three or four consecutive quarters of corporate results which have not been up to the mark but the retail investor or the Indian investor has continuously shown Faith they have very famously been called the shock absorbers for the capital markets so my question to you is if you are speaking to these shock absorbers right now what is your message to them how do they make sure that they sail through this storm see it's painful I mean when markets go down I don't like it nobody likes it who has invested uh they would like to see higher price but for every unlo you have to have vom you can't just keep doing up and up in the breathing also you have to come down so the correction and healthy correction is a very very integral part of the market in last 45 years I have understood that I also don't like the correction corrective phase but it is it is almost like a part of the life reversion to mean is part of the life so last year in 2024 the index went up by 10% but everybody's portfolio did anywhere between 30 to 40% 50% or maybe 70% lower the size of the stock higher was the return okay now in the current year index actually will go down by 10 12% or 15% but the portfolio will go down by much larger amount so one minute you think that the index in the current here could go down by 10 12% and has gone down even further is more pay we don't okay I don't know about I'm just saying I'm just making a broad this thing that in calendar 24 when the index went up by 10 12% you have no business to make 40% that 30% it's a stolen money that's how it works the re much like that is that what we're seeing right now because I'm asking about so um a very prominent person recently talked about stopping sips in small and midcap stocks said that small and midcap stocks right now you should exit Lock Stock and Barrel was the exact quote now coincidence the very concept of sip systematic investment plan so so that aaging out will Market do it you should not break your sip you should not break your sip in fact longer the Sip maybe the the Sip might be required to be longer than 35 40 months you know if you stay a little longer there'll be deep correction you'll buy very cheap and then again the smooth Curve will happen it's not that uh uh once the midcap or small cap they they correct they will never come back all the the good companies they will they'll come back understood but is there a fundamental issue with the way small and midcap companies have been valued and the pace at which they have grown is there a fundamental concern which is why the correction right now is what we are seeing but see you you just not starting a SI like yesterday say a year back also you started so first you had a 40% up for the first 12 months you had 40% growth now you'll pay some some portion of that you'll give away and then in in 25 you'll give away in 26 again you start making it so sip is all about averages yeah no no of course yeah so uh it it is the I mean you must understand the very idea of sip you know it is for taking you should not bother about where the market is small overheated okay see as I told you right in the beginning that there was excessive flow mutual fund flow Mutual flow how the stack is your entire say 400 lakh cor as of today I think it is about 4005 lak 410 lakh the total market cap the the say two or 3 years back the breakup was about 75 to 80% was large cap that is top 100 companies or 150 companies and uh midc cap would be about 15 16% and 7 8% 9% would be small cap now how the flow is see flow should also be matching but flow was different flow is like 15% is going to a small cap and 25 30 30 5% is going to midcap and large cap is getting again 35% so 65% of the market cap is getting 35% flow and 20% of the market G is getting 35 so what is going to happen you're pushing too much of money in a much smaller market and then you see the firework
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