저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 2021년 빅 아이디어를 소개하며 전기차 시장 성장과 중국 전기차 생태계를 낙관했고, 비트코인은 기관 진입 초기이며 2021년 고점은 아직 나오지 않았다고 주장했다. 전기차: 2020년 220만 대 수준인 전기차 판매가 2025년 약 2,300~4,000만 대로 성장할 것으로 전망했다. 테슬라는 미국과 중국에서 1위 브랜드로 여전히 핵심 보유 종목이다. ARK 펀드는 테슬라 목표가 4,000달러 전망을 언급했다. 중국 전기차: 중국 내 소형 전기차는 골프카트 수준이라 진정한 전기차로 보지 않는다. 바이두(자율주행 플랫폼, 가장 높은 확신 종목), BYD(워런 버핏 보유, ARK도 보유 경험), 지리(볼보 인수) 등에 관심을 보였다. 니오는 미보유, 샤오펑은 테슬라를 모방 중이라 언급했다. 오토X도 캘리포니아 완전 자율주행 승인으로 주목할 종목으로 꼽았다. 비트코인: 2021년 고점은 아직 나오지 않았다고 보며 4만 달러 고점이 이미 나왔다는 시각에 동의하지 않는다. 구글 검색량 대비 가격 투기 활동이 적어 2017년과 달리 아직 과열이 아니라고 판단한다. 비트코인과 타 자산 간 상관관계가 가장 낮아 분산투자 효과가 크다는 점을 근거로 들었다. 기관 동향: 마이크로스트래티지의 전액 비트코인 투자와 추가 증자, 스퀘어의 자산 1% 비트코인 편입, 매스뮤추얼의 1억 달러 투자를 기관 진입 신호로 해석했다. 다만 마이크로스트래티지 사례는 규제 당국이 개입할 수 있다고 우려했다. 피델리티 커스터디, ICE, CME 비트코인 선물 등 제도권 인프라 구축도 긍정적으로 평가했다. 비트코인 구조: 시가총액은 약 6,000억 달러 수준이며 탈중앙화로 규제 집중 공격 지점(throat to choke)이 없다고 강조했다. 중국이 거래소를 폐쇄하자 거래가 일본, 태국, 한국 등으로 이동했다는 사례를 들었다. 기타 2021년 빅 아이디어: 헬스케어, 디지털 지갑, 우주항공, 배송 드론 등 15개 테마를 제시했다. 관련 리서치와 매매 내역은 ARK 웹사이트에 공개되어 있다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
arc invest funds have been on a tear over the last year its arc innovation fund alone has more than quadrupled since the low we saw in march and now founder and ceo kathy wood has her eyes set on a new theme for innovation jen rogers sat down with kathy wood and brings us his interview jen there's always a lot of attention on what kathy looking at specifically because she has been so focused on a lot of these innovation names that have performed so well over the last year that's right and as you said she's done incredibly well uh her portfolio of thematic active etfs are raking in some 30 billion in inflows last year 8 billion in january returns above 100 so she really made a name for herself early on crypto and then it was that tesla call uh tesla our biggest holding the tesla call going to 4 000.
uh look she turned out to be right on tesla she's now talking about her big ideas for 2021 and electric vehicles are still part of her thesis on innovation and disruption that's one of the things we talked about if we're right this uh market is going to go from 2.2 million sales that's units uh in 2020 it might be 2.3 to 40 million in 2025.
so all of these announcements have increased our confidence that the capital markets are going to finance this transition from internal combustion engine to electric that's great uh who is going to be leading the charge so to speak uh we still think it is tesla certainly in the united states even in china tesla is the number one brand uh now the smaller vehicles in china there is a company um i've forgotten its name uh it might be associated with saic uh and gm by the way that is pulling ahead uh but it's that's not a counted as a true electric vehicle these are the ones that go 25 miles an hour golf cart types of things uh so we think that uh china might hold uh the secret as to the next big winners uh we know that neo we do not own neo it's a battery swapping company so instead of charging they swap batteries that that is uh going to to win win the day uh we think that x-pung which we do not own but which is emulating tesla might we're seeing uh and we do own in our more specialized strategies byd was a a battery manufacturer to begin with and warren buffett owns has owned for many years uh a piece of byd that has done very well we owned that and then uh geely which bought volvo and and um i believe the chairman of gili owns a position in daimler it is also doing a lot of interesting things in terms of partnering with various companies including baidu so if i if i had to give you which of the chinese names we have the highest conviction in uh it's probably baidu and that had been a hard sell for me because their search business was falling apart and it did seem to me with more than 150 or 200 electric vehicle manufacturers many being government subsidized that there would be a blood bloodbath and and baidu's the government has deemed it the autonomous platform for china uh we weren't sure whether to believe that or not or if it would get caught up in the carnage but it does seem to be doing something very interesting and there's also another company called auto x this is more uh this is they're working with dongfeng in which is mostly involved in the trucking space but we did take note that auto x got has gotten approval from california to go uh fully autonomous there i didn't know that until very recently so that could be another one to watch so uh big ideas 2021 first of all i just want to remind people that all your research is on your website along with all your trades i mean everything is there people so you can go and click and read the whole thing we're going to go through a couple more of the big ideas though and i want to talk about crypto uh we've got number six and seven bitcoins fundamentals and bitcoin preparing for institutions so you know you've got a lot of fans in the crypto space i want to know what you think here and of course bitcoin some people think look it's already hit its highs for 2021 the high water mark of above 40 000.
what's arcs thinking here uh we do not agree with that uh and what's been interesting this time around is to if you look at google search trends for bitcoin or bitcoin's price uh against the bitcoin price itself um you'll find that there's not a lot of speculative activity by that measure in fact in 2017 they were one for one together but it has been pretty quiet until maybe very recently but throughout last year and so that gave us a lot of comfort we believe that the institutional behavior uh and moves recently have been fascinating we have been expecting institutions to start moving into bitcoin and other crypto assets but primarily uh bitcoin the most secure of the blockchains um because uh because it if you look at the correlation of bitcoin's performance relative to any other asset class it is it has the lowest correlation meaning if you buy some bitcoin you will further diversify your portfolio and increase your returns with lower risk right so that's why institutions look for that low correlation bitcoin has it and so that's clear we have 10 years of history now but what surprised me and us generally was to watch microstrategy which has put all of its all the cash on its balance sheet into bitcoin and even did another equity offering so it could put more cash on its balance and i i think that's a little crazy because i i i think the regulators will have something to say about this in terms of what is this is this company the microstrategy technology company or is it like an etf so we don't know about that but then you saw square put one percent of all of its assets in bitcoin and i think you're going to see more of that we didn't expect that what we did expect was because of the low correlation of returns uh institutional investors to move in the most surprising one to me thus far has been mass mutual it put a hundred million dollars into its general account now its general account is enormous so a hundred million dollars is something like point zero zero one but what what that move told us is you know mass mutual's very conservative and very highly regulated and so it had to jump through many more regulatory hurdles uh than i thought would have been possible by now uh so i think that uh is a seal of approval and then of course you have the institutional infrastructure moving into into place whether it's with custody and everyone knows a lot about fidelity being out there in terms of wanting to custody bitcoin in particular uh you have the intercontinental exchange uh and uh and you've got the cme now with bitcoin futures uh one settling in uh kind one settling in cash uh and so uh we do believe that uh bitcoin is getting ready for institutional but when we when we actually think about this is bitcoin ready for institutions bitcoin is only it's roughly a 600 billion dollar market cap so not even half the size of apple or amazon right doesn't put it into perspective and yet it is a very big idea i think a much bigger idea than uh apple or amazon it's the first global truly global digital currency out there and it it is completely decentralized there's no throat to choke so unlike uh with libra you know you had europe and the us and many countries saying we'll never know this uh that's because there was one throat to joke with with bitcoin there's no throat to choke and in fact when when uh china uh basically shut down the exchanges in china that uh uh dealt in crypto especially bitcoin that activity just moved over to japan thailand and korea other countries that wanted they wanted to move ahead in this innovation space they did not want to miss this next big thing so they have 15 uh big ideas for 2021 aside from the two we just talked about uh there is some healthcare plays in here uh digital wallets and also uh orbital aerospace and delivery drones so you can read all the research because akiko they they give it all away uh you can see all her trades and what she's moving into and out of but it is interesting to get her take a little bit deeper on some of these big calls and especially on bitcoin she says we haven't seen the high watermark for 2021.
yeah i mean not just interesting to hear her takes but they've actually performed quite well so certainly worth checking that as well jen thanks so much for bringing us that interview with kathy wood
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