저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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투자는 '지지 않는 게임(losers game)'이라는 관점에서, 실수를 피하는 방어적 투자가 중요하다고 강조. 1978년 하이일드 채권 사례를 들어, 기대치가 낮은 B등급 채권은 생존만 하면 상향 여지가 있어 서프라이즈가 상방에 있다고 설명. 핵심은 자산의 질보다 가격(가치 대비 가격)이며, 과거 우량주 고평가 매수(1968~73년 90% 손실)가 실패 사례로 제시됨. 생존 여부를 걸러내는 것이 분석가의 핵심 역할이라고 결론.
다듬은 글
investing is a losers game and so the best way to win at tennis is by at investing is by not hitting losers now I believe also that it's a losers game not as much as Charlie believes and not for the same reason Charlie believes that that investing is a losers game uh because the market is efficient and securities are priced right I believe there are inefficiencies I just think it's hard to consistently take advantage of them and you have to be an exceptional person to take advantage of them on a assistant basis and uh uh you know the reason that the pro can go for winners is because he is so well schooled and practiced and steady and talented that he knows that if he does this with his foot and this with his hip and this with his elbow and this with his wrist that the ball will go where he wants he doesn't worry about miscues uh wind sun in his eyes uh distraction he's so well schooled um and in fact you know in in scoring tennis matches they keep track of something called unforced errors and the reason they keep track of them is because there are so few the pro doesn't make a lot of unforced Errors we make unforced errors all the time and so we have in order to survive we have to avoid them so the point is if you're going to be an investor you have to decide am I good enough to go for winners or should I emphasize the avoidance of losers in my Approach and then the fourth input uh oh so I I I say here that the difficulty of getting it right is what makes defensive investing so important because it's just for us in investing especially because there's Randomness if we do the right thing with our foot and hip and arm and elbow we're not going to get a winner every time and then the fourth uh uh origin that I wanted to talk to you about today was my meeting with Mike milin in November 1978 so uh in 78 I got a call from my boss at City Bank and he said there's some guy in California named Mike milin and he deals with something called high yield bonds can you figure out what that means because one of our clients had asked for a high yield Bond portfolio and in that day nobody knew about it it was it was uh unknown and uh so I I I uh I met with Mike in November of 1978 he came to see me a city in New York he was looking for clients he was just starting off the in the high yel Bond industry and it was a great meeting and he explained to me that uh if you buy AAA bonds there's only one way to go triaa bonds are bonds that everybody thinks are great their companies are making a lot of money they have prudent balance sheets the Outlook is good everything's perfect so if everything's perfect that means it can't get better and if it can't get better that means it can can only get worse it doesn't have to get worse but if there is a change it's going to be for the worse and if you've bought a bond on the assumption that it's perfect and it gets worse then you lose money so uh that's important on the other hand he said if you buy single B bonds and they survive there's only one way for them to go which is upgrade now that's not exactly true because they can default and go bankrupt but the ones that survive will go up will be upgraded and the surprises are likely to be on the upside so this was very important again this is about trying to hit winners avoid losers and if you're buying bonds that most people don't think much of it's hard to have a big loser because such low expectations are Incorporated now let me digress for a minute because this is really important how do you make money as an investor the people who don't know think the way you do it is by buying good assets a good building stock in a good company or something like that that is not the secret for Success the secret for success in investing is buying things for less than they worth so if you buy a high quality asset you know there's a and I say in the book there's a guy in on the radio I I used to when I lived in La I listened to NPR on the way to work and there was a guy who's and I heard him say it he said well if you go into a store and you like the product buy the stock couldn't be more wrong because what determines the success of an investor is not what he buys but what he pays for it and if you buy a high quality asset but you overpay for it you're in big trouble and you can buy a very low quality asset but if you pay less than it's worth chances are you're going to make money so the so the book says chapter three says the most important thing is value figuring out what the value of an asset is but number four says the most important thing is the relationship between price and value so let's assume that you're able to figure out the value if you pay more than that you're in trouble if you get it for Less the wind is at your back so um it was very very important then uh to be in an area where the surprises were likely to be on the upside and if you buy the bonds of b-rated companies about which there are such low expect ation maybe it's easy for there to be a favorable surprise now how can I how can I prove to you that the expectations were low the answer is that uh if you look in the Moody's guide to Bonds in those years it what was the definition of a b-rated bond quote fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment in other words it's a bad investment now I drove here from the airport in my car and if I take you outside to look at my car and I offer to you for sale because I I don't need that car anymore when I'm done here uh uh I'm not coming back if I say to you would you like to buy my car what is the one question you must ask me before saying yes or no price you get an A you get an A so in other words it's a good buy at a certain price it's a big bad buy at another price Moody is now saying that b-rated bonds are a bad buy without any reference to price so in other words there's no price at which a company that has some credit risk uh is is worth investing in and by the way before I turned to high yield bonds in 78 I was part of the bank's me Machinery to buy the bonds of uh the stocks of America's best companies and I explained the lunch how if you bought the bonds of H packet Perkin Elma Texas Instruments at Merc Lily Xerox IBM Kodak Polaroid AIG cocacola and proctoring Gamma and if you bought them all in ' 68 and you held them until 73 you lost 90% of your money why because they were overpriced the average stock since the postwar has traded at 16 times its next year's earnings these were trading at 80 and 90 times why because they were so good everybody it's great companies nothing can go wrong so it doesn't matter what price you pay and if you pay 80 or 90 times that's fine and uh so here we are in my experience again experience as a teacher you invest in the best companies in America you lose a lot of money then you go to the high yield Bond business you buy you invest in the worst companies in America you make the most money so it's an instructive lesson if you have your eyes open and and and you learn from experience uh which which I did um but the key words were and they survive right there's a little trap there because you have to you have to catch those three words if you buy single B bonds that don't survive then you're in big trouble so it but it's obviously it's torically true that if if a company of about which the expectations are low uh survives it'll probably at minimum it'll pay off at maturity and maybe in the meantime it'll be upgraded or taken over if they survive so what that convinced me when I was starting the high Bond business and this conversation came at a great point in time is that my analyst should spend all their time trying to weed out the ones that don't survive not finding the ones that will have favorable events but just excluding the ones that have unfavorable events
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