[ Bill Gross ] 17 May 2017 The stock market sell off

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right the selloff continues here we are looking at the lows of the session right now investors are growing uh concerned that Republicans are not going to be able to move forward on this progrowth economic agenda up until now Wall Street has I got to say remained pretty optimistic and they've taken everything with a grain of salt they have been most focused on tax reform and Healthcare reform and they have assumed it's all going to happen but now suddenly some of that is being put into doubt as we watch a market that's off 3 48 points a in news of the president's dismissal of FBI director James col and all that that entails including the memo Etc joining me right now with a look at how you should be thinking about it we have legendary investor and Janice Capital portfolio manager Bill gross bill it is good to see you and what a day to have you here oh thank you Trish it's good to be here what a day is right um you know the market has been uh standing still for the last three or four weeks and now we've got a a big day do you think this is going to continue I mean what what do you think is behind this selloff right now and is it lasting in your view well I think it's the the stronger uh potential uh evidence uh you know related to uh Comey and the uh FBI investigation as well as the Russian investigation you know all I know though about Washington politics Trish is what I hear on Fox News uh uh but from an investment standpoint it appears that the current termo oil threatens or I think at least delays the Republican agenda which you just mentioned for tax cuts and infrastructure spending that you know risk markets were counting on to justify current prices and I think the summer in Washington is going to be politically focused as opposed to economically focused and that may stall the the markets yeah I mean that's that's the concern right bill that you you got this circus going on in in Washington right now and you have people people uh in the Democratic party that that don't want president Trump there and and they don't want lower taxes and they don't want repeal and replace when it comes to Obamacare and so they will do everything in their power to derail that agenda but you know investors uh you know I guess as I look at the market right now I'm asking you I mean do they actually think that the Democrats are going to be successful or is this perhaps just a blip on the radar well I think it's more than a blip and if if the not successful in in terms of their ultimate objective which might be to remove Trump from office um they certainly will delay the the Trump agenda and congressional action in terms of tax cuts and deregulation and uh repatriation of1 to2 trillion dollars from uh overseas which the market may have been Canon on you know investors should remember Trish that uh since the election in November uh stocks are up 10% and while you know some of that is due to earnings gains and and a really good earnings season for the past month or two in terms of announcements uh a 10% gain was based uh significantly on uh the potential for tax cuts and uh that may be delayed and ultimately it may be forestalled you think so delayed forestalled not happening at all Bill well um you know we we'll see I I I think markets are at levels now not just stocks but bonds as well in terms of the low yields that uh suggest that you know future capital gains may be limited U you know investors are counting on those double digit types of returns and I don't think we're going to get it um let me ask you about the fed and their involvement in all of this because throughout Obama's tenure Janet Yellen and Company were very actively involved some might say too involved and they've kind of indicated that they're they're not going to continue that do you think given the environment if we're not ble to get stuff out of Washington if we're not able to see Economic Policy reform will the FED need to be more proactive yet again well I I think they'll need to be proactive from the standpoint of um of forestalling uh interest rate hikes you know they've talked about two to three hikes per year over the next several years to to renormalize short-term rates and to renormalize uh Bond rates but you know if we have problems here in terms of economic growth if we have problems in terms of the fiscal agenda that Trump is proposing then I I think the FED becomes more cautious and you know perhaps only raises interest rates by 25 basis points or a quarter of a point uh per year as opposed to the 75 that the market and the FED we're talking about just a week or two weeks ago very interesting so perhaps a a more reluctant Federal Reserve there to move on interest rates where does that leave yields what do you think the 10e is going to look like like say 6 months from now well goodness we're at uh 2.2% and I think Trish I yes I I think significantly that that 2.2% is is still very very low and that it's related to uh considerable extent to German yields and to Japanese yields and to a certain extent this is a global market and so the the question that you've asked is related to to Global growth I I do think that interest rates globally will be moving higher you asked me where the tenure will be now at 220 I think perhaps at 250 or 260 you know over the next 6 to nine months but nothing significant in terms of an increase as long as we have these problems in Washington Bill gross so good to see you thank you sir appreciate it very much markets are at levels not just stocks but bonds as well in terms of the low yields that uh suggest that you know future capital gains may be limited um you know investors are counting on those double digit types of returns and I don't think we're going to get it um let me ask you about the fed and their involvement in all of this because throughout Obama's tenure Janet Yellen and Company were very actively involved some might say too involved and they've kind of indicated that they're they're not going to continue that do you think given the environment if we're not able to get stuff out of Washington if we're not able to see Economic Policy reform will the FED need to be more proactive yet again well I I think they'll need to be proactive from the standpoint of um of uh forestalling uh interest rate hikes you know they've talked about two to three hikes per all right the selloff continues here we are looking at the lows of the session right now investors are growing uh concerned that Republicans are not going to be able to move forward on this progrowth economic agenda up until now Wall Street yes I got to say me pretty optimistic and they've taken everything with a grain of salt they have been most focused on tax reform and Health Care reform and they have assumed it's all going to happen but now suddenly some of that is being put into doubt as we watch a market that's off 348 points a in news of the president's dismissal of FBI director James col and all that that entails including the memo Etc joining me right now with a look at how you should be thinking about it we have legendary investor and Janice Capital portfolio manager Bill gross bill it is good to see you and what a day to have you here oh thank you Trish it's good to be here what a day is right um you know the market has been uh standing still for the last three or four weeks and now we've got a a big day do you think this is going to continue I mean what what do you think is behind this selloff right now and is it lasting in your view well I think it's the the stronger uh potential uh evidence uh you know related to uh Comey and the uh FBI investigation as well as the Russian investigation you know all I know though about Washington politics Trish is what I hear on Fox News uh uh but from an investment standpoint it appears that the current turmoil threatens or I think at least delays the Republican agenda which you just mentioned for tax cuts and infrastructure spending that you know risk markets were counting on to justify current prices and I think the summer in Washington um they certainly will delay the the Trump agenda and congressional action in terms of tax cuts and deregulation and uh repatriation of1 to2 trillion dollar from uh overseas which the market may have been Canon on you know investors should remember Trish that uh since the election in November uh stocks are up 10% and while you know some of that is due to earnings gains and and a really good earnings season for the past month or two in terms of announcements uh a 10% gain was based significantly on the potential for tax cuts and that may be delayed and ultimately it may be forestalled you think so delayed forestalled not happen at all Bill well um you know we we'll see I I I think Marton is going to be politically focused as opposed to economically focused and that may stall the the markets yeah I mean that's that's the concern right bill that you you got this circus going on in in Washington right now and you have people uh in the Democratic party that that don't want president Trump there and and they don't want lower taxes and they don't want repeal and replace when it comes to Obamacare and so they will do everything in their power to derail that agenda but you know investors uh you know I guess as I look at the market right now I'm asking you I mean do they actually think that the Democrats are going to be successful or or is this perhaps just a blip on the radar well I think it's more than a blip and if if they're not successful and in terms of their ultimate objective which might be to remove Trump from office