저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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시장 결론: 무역 긴장과 금리 인상 우려로 주식 급락이 나타났으며, 기술주 조정이 다른 섹터로 순환되면 건강한 강세장이 이어질 수 있다는 진단. 시장 하락 원인: 관세 불확실성이 직접적 촉발 요인이고, 연준의 장기 매파적 입장이 배경이라는 설명. 연준과 금리: 2020년 중간값 기준 연방기금금리 3.6% 전망과 10년물 금리 약 3%대 대비 단기금리 역전 우려. 전후 미국에서 장단기 금리 역전은 매번 경기침체로 이어졌다고 언급. 파월 의장은 단기적으로 비둘기파, 장기적으로 매파로 보인다는 평가. 고용과 경제: 노동시장 증가율이 연 20만 명 흡수 수준을 크게 웃돌아 실업률 하락 압력이 있으며, 경기를 늦추지 않으면 어느 시점 충돌이 불가피하다는 견해. 필립스곡선이 훨씬 평탄해졌다는 점도 인정. 무역: 중국의 지식재산권 관련 관행은 WTO 위반 소지가 커 트럼프 행정부가 공식 채널로 시정을 시도하는 것은 정당하다는 입장. 다만 의도치 않은 부작용(과거 오바마 시기 닭고기 부품 수출 중단 사례 등)이 있을 수 있어 전개를 지켜봐야 한다고 봄. 전면 무역전쟁 가능성에 대해서는 측정된 조치로 보인다는 낙관적 관측. 기술주: 한 섹터가 계속 주도하는 장은 건강하지 않으며, 에너지·금융 등으로 주도권이 순환하는 것이 건강한 강세장이라고 평가. 단기적으로는 금리와 무역 불확실성이 시장을 계속 압박할 것으로 전망. 주식은 장기 자산이므로 향후 9개월보다 2~4년의 흐름이 더 중요하다는 장기 관점 강조.
다듬은 글
let's get more in the markets now let's welcome in professor Jeremy Siegel joining us stuff from the Wharton School as always professor welcome back it's nice to see again happy to be here what do you make of this sell-off and these fears over tariffs on China well I mean it's a one-two punch today I definitely think the tariff uncertainty is probably the proximate cause but I definitely think the the long-run hawkish stance of the Fed I know they didn't go to four which is I think what the knee-jerk reaction why it was favorable yesterday for this year but they're projecting a median in 2020 of three point six on the Fed Funds will take a cookie as we've been talking the ten years to eight that's an inversion of the curve Wow I mean every inversion in the post-world War two period has been filed by a recession now you could say well by then the ten year will be much higher well if the tenure is going to be much higher we'd all be shortened to ten year so there's a there's a lot of things going on there then there's others say well they're not going to be that hawkish but you know once they're on a path every quarter they're raising rates it's got to be bad news before they don't raise the rates and thought I think that these has a problem I thought the Chairman put on both hats yesterday as I said I think that he sounded like a dove in the near term and a big time hawk not that far down the road yeah right and by the way I think he did an excellent job for the first time many times you know you make a bluff in one way or the other and he was smooth and he was to the point I I was I was really quite impressed with him but don't forget I mean stocks are long-term assets then your bonds are 10 years so you know what happened next nine months is one thing but what happens two three four years ago is still very very important and obviously the data will tell us what's going to happen but you he said we're not we're way above the growth rate of absorbing the 200,000 a year monthly flows which is going to squeeze that unemployment right now he did admit the folk curve is a lot flatter but we take a look at what the unemployment rates going to be and you know there yeah the question is we got to slow this economy or there's going to be a clash at some point yeah and that's what the filters at and I think that's a wording professor all right we got the details is this a a bull market killing scenario then if a trade war fully erupts well if a trade wall fully erupted and I'm glad it does look like a measured step where they're going to look for comments from the trade groups you know this and the base of fact is that you know China does hold US companies pay a ransom of intellectual property for entry into the world's second-biggest economy that is really against WTO and there's some good cause for Trump to go through established channels to try to correct that and that would be to the benefit the United States now there's always unintended consequences from doing that Obama put some trade restrictions on I think they stopped chicken parts from going over to China there's always going to be something we're gonna have to see how that unfolds uncertainty why so it's it's a very important move but to be very fruitful for the United States lastly before I let you go what do you make of this roll over in technology as closely as you follow markets when you lose a leadership group or certainly one appears to be teetering on the edge how should we view this well I think as some of your comment ater said there's it could be taken up by others it can be taken up by energy it can be taken up by financials absolutely I think if only one group leads and continues to lead that's not a healthy bull market I think a healthy bull market is one that does rotate to other sectors I'm not particularly disturbed about that but the markets still going to be challenged by the interest rates and trade uncertainty over the next week certainly that's why we have you on professor to shed some light on how we should be viewing all this we appreciate it as always the Wharton School Spencer Jeremy Siegel live as always take a look at what the unemployment rates going to be and you know there yeah the question is we've got to slow this economy or there's going to be a clash at some point yeah and that's what the filters dad and I think that's a word professor alright we got the details is this a a bull market killing scenario then if a trade war fully erupts well if a trade war fully erupted and I'm glad it does look like a measured step where they're going to look for comments from the trade groups you know this and the base of fact is that you know China does hold US companies pay a ransom of intellectual property for entry into yeah right and by the way I think he did an excellent job for the first time many times you know you make a bluff in one way or the other and he was smooth and he was to the point I I was I was really quite impressed with him but don't forget I mean stocks are long-term assets then your bonds are 10 years so you know what happened next nine months is one thing but what happens two three four years ago is still very very important and obviously the data will tell us what's going to happen but you know he said we're not we're way above the growth rate absorbing the 200,000 a year monthly flows which is going to squeeze that unemployment right now he did admit the folk curve is a lot flatter but we let's get more in the markets now let's welcome in professor Jeremy Siegel joining us from the Wharton School as always professor welcome back it's nice to see you again happy to be here what do you make of this sell-off and these fears over tariffs on China well I mean it's a one-two punch today I definitely think the tariff uncertainty is probably the proximate cause but I definitely think the the long-run hawkish stance of the Fed I know they didn't go to four which is I think what the knee-jerk reaction why was favorable yesterday for this year but they're projecting a median and 2020 of three point six on the Fed Funds will take another world second biggest economy that is really against WTO and there's some good cause for Trump to go through established channels to try to correct that and that would be to the benefit the United States now where there's always unintended consequences from doing that Obama put some trade restrictions on I think they stopped chicken parts from going over to China there is always going to be something we're gonna have to see how that unfolds uncertainty why so it's it's a very important move but to be very fruitful for the United States lastly before I let you go what do you make of this roll over in technology as closely as you follow markets when you lose okay as we've been talking the ten years to eight that's an inversion of the curve Wow I mean every inversion in the post-world War two period has been filed by a recession now you could say well by then the ten year will be much higher well if the tenure is going to be much higher we start all be charting the 10 year so there's a there's a lot of things going on there then there's others say well they're not going to be that hawkish but you know once they're on a path they recorder they're raising rates it's got to be bad news before they don't raise the rates and I think that these has a problem I thought the Chairman put on both hats yesterday as I said I think that he sounded like a dove in the near term and a big-time hawk not that far down the road
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