저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시겔 교수는 연준의 대차대조표 축소와 금리 인상에도 강세장은 아직 끝나지 않았으며, 법인세 개혁이 시장에 추가 상승 동력을 줄 것이라고 봄. 연준 발표 해석: 가장 큰 시장 반응은 대차대조표 축소(10월 시작)보다 2018년 점도표가 여전히 금리 인상 3회를 시사한 매파적 내용에서 나왔음. 일부 관측자는 낮은 인플레이션 때문에 인상 축소를 기대했으나 그렇지 않았고, 12월 인상 기대도 높음. 장기 금리 전망: 장기 중립금리가 4.25%에서 2.75% 수준으로 낮아졌고 옐런도 이를 언급. 교수는 과거에 장기금리가 너무 높다고 말해 왔으며 금리가 과거 수준으로 돌아가기는 어렵다고 봄. 다만 2019~2020년 점도표 분산이 커서 예측 불확실성이 큼. 대차대조표 축소 영향: 4.5조 달러 규모 축소는 전례 없는 실험이며 민간 흡수가 필요함. 외국인 미국채 매수는 최근 감소. 연준은 2019년경 약 5,000억 달러 추가 축소 계획이며 재정적자도 연 5,000~6,000억 달러로 채권 공급 부담이 큼. 시장은 큰 반응을 보이지 않을 것으로 예상. 금리와 주식: 10년물 금리는 모기지 금리와 주택 시장에 가장 중요한 변수이며, 장기 채권 금리는 주식의 경쟁 자산이라 주식시장에도 영향을 줌. 시장 전망: 교수는 강세장이 아직 더 갈 수 있다고 봄. 여러 달 어두운 시기에도 세제 개혁에 대한 확신을 유지했고, 이제 법인세 개혁 기대가 커졌다고 평가. 법인세 개혁 효과: 법인세 개혁이 이뤄지면 올해 안에도 주식시장을 약 10% 끌어올릴 수 있다고 전망. 전제는 개혁이 실제 성사되는 것. 경기 전망: 2020년 경기 상황은 예측하기 어렵고, 장기 경기 확장 기록 경신 여부도 불확실하다고 인정. 대출 금리와 채권 공급 측면의 리스크는 존재하나 교수 본인은 연준 긴축이 이 강세장을 끝낼 것으로 보지 않음.
다듬은 글
welcome to trading nation I'm Brian Sullivan were pleased to be joined once again by Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel professors great to chat with you again sir thanks for joining us happy to be here all right so Fed day Wednesday Janet yellen's press conference but really it's gonna be all about the unwinding of their four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet in fixed increments every month you've been bullish on stocks we know that are you changing your bullish stance based on what you heard the feds say no and actually I I think the most reaction was not actually from the unwind which was expected to start in October but a rather hawkish dotplot for next year 2018 and still three increases penciled in now again when the time comes we out we have to admit going through history they have been penciling in many more than has ever come about but I think there were some market observers who thought with a low inflation with hurricanes and other disruption that it might have been down due to increases next year and it was not it was still at three and in addition a vast majority do expect an increase in December again despite hurricane disruptions the the dot plot indicates that it's pretty overwhelming in that condition I still think it's gonna be up in the air depending on what the daddy is but I think those two things cause the bond market you saw the yield ship did definitely jump on the fed news the weird thing to me professor was that this dotplot thing right where everybody literally puts on a plot where they think interest rates are going to be I mean that's literally what it is it's like a lite-brite for the fit I guess is that if you look at 2019 and 2020 the range is massive it goes from I think somebody's at four percent to somebody's at one percent which says to me they either can't agree or don't know or it's some sort of big guess should we be nervous about that well I you want to know the truth I think he is a big guest for everybody it's fair but they're also fine wine two four and a half trillion 2018 is a big guess for in many ways and in a way I mean in a way you're right how do we know what the economy is really gonna be like in in 2020 I mean are we gonna dip into a recession you know are we are we going to be you know pushing on the longest expansion in US history so I'm not too surprised what I thought was interesting Brian was the fact that the long run has moved significantly lower down to two and three-quarters and in fact Janet Yellen mentioned that a number of times in her news conference you know I for many years have said those long-run are too high you know they used to be at four four and a quarter points and the you know the interest rates are never going to be as high as they had before we'll never say never but most likely not and that the Fed was way too high in the future and it is very interesting that that long-term is now down well below three percent down to two and three quarters so this idea that we are in a lower interest rate range is is catching on at the Fed yeah listen the guessing I hear your point professor a couple years out who knows anybody's you know guess really what's gonna happen I guess my concern though would be is that it's okay if you don't know because it may be a fallacy to say that you do however you're also undergoing a never before tried for an you know couple trillion dollar unwinding of a balance sheet so does it owner view at all that you you're basically doing as one of our guests on CBC said an experiment on an experiment well I mean you're unwinding the experiment quantitative easing you know raise the fed balance sheet from under a trillion to over four yelling and others have said we're not going back to that under a trill you know the best guess is somewhere around to this is bonds that have to be absorbed by the market as well as our deficit so you know actually at the math some of them the Fed is adding another 500 billion not this next year but I think in 2019 if they go on plan our deficit is another five six hundred billion that's a lot of bonds to absorb I'm a little surprised the market has generally been sanguine than in in in this hand is expected it I don't expect a huge reaction but yes these bonds are not have to be absorbed by the private sector and we do note that foreign buying of of US government bonds has definitely dried up in in the recent year so it's it's a lot of this has to be taken on by domestic private investors but I guess quickly a lot of our audience does not trade bonds or not bond they may not you know they're just maybe they own an S&P 500 index fund or you know a couple of mutual funds bottom bottom line professor is is what the Fed trying to do going to derail one of the greatest bull markets in the history of modern mankind no no I really don't think so I don't think so and by the way the selling of the bonds does influence everyone the ten-year bond is the most important variable for the mortgage rate by far so you know home buying home ownership housing starts everything like that is really linked to those the interest rate on that long bond and that long bond also affects stock market as we know because stocks are long-term investments so are bonds that's the compa of the competition over there but going down to your basic question Brian I think this bull market has a way to run I think there's new hope that taxes really have a chance to be done you know I mean I remain steadfast throughout the some of the Bleak days in the last few months when no one thought anything could be done there's a little bit more optimism now I think a corporate tax deal will be done and I think that that will be positive for the equity market how much what do you think it would give for the market if we can push on to a number percentage I mean I mean I mean I would say corporate tax reform is could add another 10% to the market even this year if it looks very likely to get done Wow and it's something that they're starting to work on and the president's making some unexpected moves professor we'll see what could happen there's always professor Siegel we really appreciate your time and insight thank you sir thank you Brian I mean are we going to dip into a recession you know are we are we going to be you know pushing on the longest expansion in US history so I'm not too surprised what I thought was interesting Brian was the fact that the long run has moved significantly lower down to two and three quarters and in fact Janet Yellen mentioned that a number of times in her news conference you know I for many years have said those long-run are too high you know they used to be at four four and a quarter points and the you know the interest rates are never going to be as high as they had before we'll never say never but most likely not and that the Fed was way to I in the future and it is very interesting that that long term is now down well below three percent down to two and three quarters so this idea that we are in a lower interest rate range is is catching on at the Fed yeah listen the guessing I hear your point professor a couple years out who knows anybody's you know guess really what's gonna happen I guess my concern though would be is that it's okay if you don't know because it may be a fallacy to say that you do however you're also it's a lot of it this has to be taken on by domestic private investors but I guess quickly a lot of our audience does not trade bonds or not bond they may not you know they're just maybe they own an S&P 500 index fund or you know a couple of mutual funds bottom bottom line professor is is what the Fed trying to do going to derail one of the greatest bull markets in the history of modern mankind no I know I really don't think so I don't think so and by the way the selling of the bonds does influence every one the ten-year bond is the most important variable for the mortgage rate by far so you know home buying home ownership housing starts everything like that is really linked to those the interest rate on that long bond and that long bond also affects stock market as we know because stocks are long-term investments so are bonds that's the compa of the competition over there but going down to your basic question Brian I think this bull market has a way to run I think there's new hope that taxes really have a chance to be done you know I mean I remain steadfast throughout the some of the Bleak days in the last few months when no one thought anything could be done undergoing a never before tried foreign you know a couple trillion dollar unwinding of a balance sheet so does it owner view at all that you you're basically doing as one of our guests on CBC said an experiment on an experiment well I mean you're unwinding the experiment quantitative easing you know raise the Fed balance sheet from under a trillion to over four yelling and others have said we're not going back to that under a trill you know the best guess is somewhere around to this is bonds that have to be absorbed by the market as well as our deficit so you know actually at the maximum the Fed is adding another five hundred billion not this next year but I think in 2019 if they go on plan our deficit is another five six hundred billion that's a lot of bonds to absorb I'm a little surprised the market has generally been sanguine than in in in this hand is expected it I don't expect a huge reaction but yes these bonds are not have to be absorbed by the private sector and we do note that foreign buying of of US government bonds has definitely grown up in in the recent year so it's welcome to trading nation I'm Brian Sullivan were pleased to be joined once again by Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel professors great to chat with you again sir thanks for joining us happy to be here alright so fed day Wednesday Janet yellen's press conference but really it's gonna be all about the unwinding of their four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet and fixed increments every month you've been bullish on stocks we know that are you changing your bullish stance based on what you heard the feds say no and actually I I think the most reaction was not actually from the unwind which was expected to start in October but a rather hawkish dotplot for next year 2018 and still three increases penciled in now again when the time comes we out we have to admit going through history they have been penciling in many more than has ever come about but I think there were some market observers who thought with the low inflation with hurricanes and other disruption that it might have been down due to increases next year and it was not it was still at 3 and in addition a vast majority do expect an increase in December again despite hurricane disruptions the the dot plot indicates that it's pretty overwhelming in that condition I still think it's going to be up in the air depending on what the daddy is but I think those two things cause the bond market you saw the yield you did definitely jump on the fed news the weird thing to me professor was that this dot plot thing right where everybody literally puts on a plot where they think it your straits are going to be I mean that's literally what it is it's like a light bright for the fifth I guess is that if you look at 2019 and 2020 the range is massive it goes from I think somebody's at 4% to somebody's at 1% which says to me they either can't agree or don't know or it's some sort of big guess should we be nervous about that well I you want to know the truth I think 2020 is a big guess for everybody it's fair but they're also unwind four and a half trillion number 2018 is a big guess for in many ways and in a way I mean in a way you're right how do we know what the economy is really going to be like in in 2020
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