저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 달러 약세와 금값 상승은 2018년 이후에도 계속되며, 연말에 가속될 가능성이 크다는 전망. 달러 약세 원인: 연준의 정상화 기대와 경기 개선 믿음으로 2017년 초 달러가 강세였으나 이제 그 상승분을 반납 중이며, 2017년 8월까지 6개월 연속 하락해 1985년 이후 최악의 해가 될 전망. 금값 흐름: 금이 온스당 1,320달러를 돌파했고 달러 기준으로 상승 추세가 이어져 연말까지 지속, 내년에는 가속될 것으로 봄. 북한 긴장은 하루 효과에 그쳤고 주식시장이 오르고 있어 안전자산 수요가 아니라 달러 탈출·인플레 헤지 목적의 매수라고 주장. 글로벌 통화정책: 미국·유럽·일본·중국 전반의 통화 팽창과 인위적 저금리로 법정통화 가치가 떨어질 것이며, 향후 지정학적 위기가 발생하면 주식 매도 후 금으로 몰릴 것이라 봄. 달러 약세의 영향: 달러 부채·상품 수입국인 신흥국에는 긍정적이나 미국인의 구매력 감소와 생활수준 하락을 초래. 결국 금리 상승 압력으로 이어질 것. 달러 롱 전략 평가: 골드만삭스가 달러 롱을 제시한 데 대해 반대하며, 그 거래는 이미 소진됐고 달러 매도가 더 유망하다고 봄. 연준 전망: 연준은 경기 데이터와 무관하게 금리를 올려왔으며, 12월 추가 인상 가능성은 있으나 사이클 종반에 가깝고 곧 금리 인하·제로금리 복귀 및 대규모 QE가 올 것으로 예상. 재정 전망: 재정적자가 향후 수년간 급증할 것이며 허리케인 피해 지원과 감세로 차입이 불가피하다고 봄. 부채한도: 부채한도 상향은 확실시되며 이는 달러에 지속적인 하방 압력을 가한다는 입장. 시장 반응은 제한적일 것으로 암시.
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golde breached $1300 this week so what brought us to this point and will this last please welcome CEO of euro pacific capital peter schiff Peter thank you so much for talking with me about this when one does well the other doesn't do so well we're talking about the dollar versus gold if you look at gold in the US dollar since November of last year up and down went way down and then it swung right up it's been the strongest in a while let's just say but since the beginning of this year we've just seen it go straight up we're seeing a total decline now a short-term drop-off for the dollar is this a problem that's been happening for some time now well I think the dollar had a substantial rise based on the expectation that the Fed would be able to normalize interest rates and unwind its massive balance sheet and a general belief that the feds experiment had actually succeeded and that the economy was in better shape as a result and so the dollar kind of rode that rally and now I think it's starting to surrender those ill-gotten gains you know the dollar is on pace for its worst year since 1985 we just finished the month of August a Down month for the dollar it's been down six months in a row and so the weakness in the dollar is one of the reasons that the price of gold has been rising in dollar terms but it hasn't risen much in terms of other currencies but I think that's about to change I think now that we've really kind of broken out Gold's above 13 20 in dollars and in fact gol was strong most of today even as the dollar began the day firmer it did end negative but gold was still up against all currencies and I do think that that trend is going to continue between now and the end of the year and then accelerate next year you know the argument can be made that political tensions with North Korea pushed gold up causing it to breach 1300 this week what do you think well gold was going up regardless of the political tensions in North Korea which seemed to act you know to last just one day in fact gold was up that evening but it acts finished down the following morning so gold has been rising and it's not because of a safe haven you know if people really were concerned if there were geopolitical fear out there the stock markets would be falling but they're not the stock markets are rising so people are not buying gold because they need a safe haven at least not from a geopolitical events I think they're buying gold to get out of the US dollar they're buying gold to have safety from inflation which a lot of people haven't understood the risk but I do think globally the risks are going to start to become more evident as a result of monetary policy that has existed around the world not just the United States but in Europe and Japan and China there's been a lot of money creation interest rates have been held artificially low and I think fiat currencies around the world are going to be losing value and so people want to get out of them and some people buy stocks and other people are buying gold and I think more and more people will be buying gold around the world and if we ever do get a real geopolitical threat then I think people will flock into gold as they dump equities but that's not happening yet well let's take a little bit of a more in-depth view of the dollars decline since June we're talking 97 down to 93 on the dollar index now some are seeing that as a good thing myk's well from goldman sachs has said it's actually an attractive prospect and we can should consider a long trade on the dollar what are your thoughts well yeah I think going along the dollar would be wrong I mean I think that trade has already played out and I think the better you know the real money's gonna be made betting against the dollar but the question of whether or not a dollar going down is a good thing it depends on your perspective you know if your foreign if you don't own dollars if your debt is denominated in dollars if you buy commodities that are priced in dollars but your income is in other currencies then it's a good thing and I think the weakening dollar will end up being a very positive event for a lot of people around the world particularly in the emerging markets that have a lot of US dollar-denominated debt and especially some of the countries that not only have dollar debt but that export commodities so they will benefit but it is a negative for America because a weak dollar means that Americans have less purchasing power so it means our standard of living goes down because things are more expensive for us to buy and ultimately it's going to push up interest rates as the world has to price in dollar weakness into interest rates and so far the Fed has been able to keep rates artificially low but a strong dollar made that much easier for the Fed once it's fighting a weakening dollar the task is going to become increasingly difficult right so let's talk about those those rates traders in the u.s.
they're more interested many times of course in knowing about Fed policy we heard some tepid statements Jackson Hole last week we're talking looking at spending inflation by the feds own index that it looks at pretty low do you think there could be an interest rate rate hike by December a lot of people say no do we see another rate hike at all what can it do to the dollar prices by the end of the year well I think the dollar the dollar is going to go down regardless of what the Fed does I mean that trend is in motion and you know the Fed has shown a propensity to raise rates regardless of the economic data ever since Trump was elected president so I don't really know what they're going to do maybe they'll raise Garrett rates again before the end of the year but regardless I think they're very close to the end of the cycle I mean anybody who's smart now is looking beyond the next rate hike to the next rate cut because that's going to be the beginning of the next easing cycle which i think is going to take rates back to zero maybe even below zero it's going to unleash you know QE for which I think will be bigger than the first round one two and three combined and so those are going to be more important factors also look at the budget a deficit that I think is going to be exploding over the next several years particularly if we go into a recession but if we get tax cuts you know of course we're gonna have some big government aid package for the victims of the hurricane and right in Texas and you know all that money has to be borrowed because we literally have nothing saved for a rainy day and when we have a day where it pours you know we have to go and borrow the money okay real quick before we go we got to talk about this debt ceiling September's a big month for the u.s.
government it hits up on Capitol Hill again it's not only gonna have to talk about raising that debt ceiling but also to create a spending bill for the next fiscal year as we move into these talks do you think we'll see any sort of market reaction or will this turn into sort of another wait and see situation where we won't see any real market reactions until we either raise the debt ceiling or go into a shutdown of some sort yeah well you know I don't think anybody really believes that the debt ceiling is not going to go up I mean this is a phony crisis that they manufacture but you know the real crisis is the debt ceiling going up I mean I would love to see the debt ceiling stay there because that would shut down the borrowing and forced government to cut you know it's size and spend less money but you know we're gonna keep on raising the debt ceiling and that is the crisis because it means the debt keeps growing and so the downward pressure on the dollar is gonna keep rising right you're not alone in that fear let me tell you thank you very much Peter chef's CEO of euro pacific capital concerned if there were geopolitical fear out there the stock markets would be falling but they're not the stock markets are rising so people are not buying gold because they need a safe haven at least not from geopolitical events I think they're buying gold to get out of the US dollar they're buying gold to have safety from inflation which a lot of people haven't understood the risk but I do think globally the risks are going to start to become more evident as a result of monetary policy that has existed around the world not just the United States but in Europe and Japan and China there's been a lot of money creation interest rates have been held artificially low and I think fiat currencies around the world are going to be losing value and so people want to get out of them and some people buy stocks and other people are buying gold and I think more and more people will be buying gold around the world and if we ever do get a real geopolitical threat then I think people will flock into gold as they dump equities but that's not happening yet well let's take a little bit of a more in-depth view of the dollars decline since June we're talking 97 down to 93 on the dollar index now some are seeing that as a good thing myk's well from goldman sachs has said it's actually an attractive prospect and we can should consider a long trade on the dollar what are your thoughts well yeah I think going along the dollar would be wrong I mean I think that trade has already played out and I think the better you know the real money's gonna be made betting against the dollar but the question of whether or not a dollar going down is a good thing it depends on your perspective you know if your foreign if you don't own dollars if your debt is denominated in dollars if you buy commodities that are priced in dollars but your income is in other currencies then it's a good thing and I think the weakening dollar will end up being a very positive event for a lot of people around the world particularly in the emerging markets that have a lot of US dollar-denominated debt and especially some of the countries that not only have dollar debt but that export commodities so they will benefit but it is a negative for America because a weak dollar means that Americans have less purchasing power so it means our standard of living goes down because things are more expensive for us to buy and ultimately it's going to push up interest rates as the world has to price in dollar weakness into interest rates and so far the Fed has been able to keep rates artificially low but a strong dollar made that much easier for the Fed once it's fighting a weakening dollar the task is going to become increasingly difficult right so let's talk about those those rates traders in the u.s.
they're more interested many times of course in knowing about Fed policy we heard some tepid statements Jackson Hole last week we're talking looking at spending inflation by the feds own index that it looks at pretty low do you think there could be an interest rate rate hike by December a lot of people say no do we see another rate hike at all and what could it do to the dollar prices by the end of the year well I think the dollar the dollar is going to go down regardless of what the Fed does I mean that trend is in motion and you know the Fed has shown a propensity to raise rates regardless of the economic data ever since Trump was elected president so I don't really know what they're going to do maybe they'll raise rates again before the end of the year but regardless I think they're very close to the end of the cycle I mean anybody who's smart now is looking beyond the next rate hike to the next rate cut be golde breached $1300 this week so what brought us to this point and will this last please welcome CEO of euro pacific capital peter chef peter thank you so much for talking with me about this when one does well the other doesn't do so well we're talking about the dollar versus gold if you look at gold and the US dollar since November of last year up and down went way down and then it swung right up it's been the strongest in a while let's just say but since the beginning of this year we've just seen it go straight up we're seeing a total decline now short term drop-off for the dollar is this a problem that's been happening for some time now well I think the dollar had a substantial rise based on the expectation that the Fed would be able to normalize interest rates and unwind its massive balance sheet and a general belief that the feds experiment had actually succeeded and that the economy was in better shape as a result and so the dollar kind of rode that rally and now I think it's starting to surrender those ill-gotten gains you know the dollar is on pace for its worst year since 1985 we just finished a month of August a Down month for the dollar it's been down six months in a row and so the weakness and the dollar is one of the reasons that the price of gold has been rising in dollar terms but it hasn't risen much in terms of other currencies but I think that's about to change I think now that we've really kind of broken out Gold's above 13 20 in dollars and in fact gol was strong most of today even as the dollar began the day firmer it did end negative but gold was still up against all currencies and I do think that that trend is going to continue between now on the end of the year and then accelerate next year you know the argument can be made that political tensions with North Korea pushed gold up causing it to breach 1,300 this week what do you think well gold was going up regardless of the political tensions in North Korea which seemed to act you know to last just one day in fact gold was up that evening but it actually finished down the following morning so goal has been rising and it's not because of a safe-haven you know if people really were
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