저자: lyndsay hollomon · 외국인
다듬은 글
guest sees more Road bumps ahead for president Trump Peter Schiff is the CEO of Eur Pacific Capital and he joins us now Peter I've Been On Assignment or vacation or whatever the last few times that you're on uh so I'm glad to have you back today um let's get straight to it and talk about the markets and what you're seeing um you know we just traded the S&P it seems that the Trump trade is alive and well and markets are continuing to fly high what are your thoughts well I think the trade has unraveled a bit remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the dollar has surrendered 100% of its gains post Trump's election and so year to dat even though the S&P is up priced in Gold the S&P is actually down and if you compare the US Stock Market to other stock markets around the world the US Stock Market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks and that's what I've been doing well Gold's been bouncing around uh but we're stuck right now 1266 that's not exactly a massively um successful trade if you ask me over the last couple of months well I year to date it's up more than the Dow it's up more than the S&P 500 and even though the S&P has made a new high it's not much higher than it was a few months ago so the US markets have been pretty steady while foreign markets have been much stronger Emerging Markets have been very strong and I expect this trend to continue and I think it'll accelerate in the second half of the Year okay is going to jump in uh the dollars retraced everything as you said is the dollar saying conclusively that Donald Trump's going to get no progrowth policies through and do you agree with it well I don't think it's really an indictment of trump more of the Federal Reserve and I think that even if the FED hikes again in a couple of weeks I mean they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the FED uh claimed to be data dependent and they hiked interest rates despite the fact that the data uh was much weaker than they thought I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts I think we're getting ready to start a new uh easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy Divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress okay Peter but from a broader standpoint and the fact that Donald Trump can't get anything done and we've lost conf in that Trump tra it's unraveled as you said it him being there and not having um another Administration that seemed to Target Corporations I'm just throwing me a bone is it slightly more positive than the situation that existed 68 months ago well absolutely look having a b a president who is business friendly as opposed to the enemy of business is a good thing but look devaluations are not going to help Trump remember when George Bush took over from from Bill Clinton he was obviously more friendly to business than was Bill Clinton but it didn't stop the stock market from collapsing because when he took office valuations were extremely high and we had the Fed propping Up the market uh with aggressive monetary policy I mean not nearly as aggressive as it's been recently but I think Donald Trump has walked into a similar situation as George Bush so even if he's friendlier to business it doesn't mean the stock market's going to do well under his presidency Peter you and I haven't talked in some time but um you have come on the show a lot telling me that the FED has no option but uh other than to Institute more quantitative easing programs and that interest rates would stay at zero forever that doesn't seem to be the case um what are the fed's moves now well the FED is still very close to zero I mean really the target rate is still below 1% okay but we're looking at potentially two more hikes this year well even if we get two more hikes you're looking at interest rates that in real terms are negative if you take the interest rate and subtract ract it from the inflation rate even the one that the government reports you're looking at negative interest rates but if you actually look beneath the government's statistics look at how weak the economy has been I mean you can see that uh in the retailers that are blowing up all the stores that are being shut down you can see it look at the auto sales that are out again today look at the inventories piling up look at all the debt that consumers have racked up credit card debt auto loans student loans uh look what's happening with labor force participation so the economy is still weak despite all of this fed stimulus Peter you have to the things you just threw out there when you said about retail you have to admit that's more of a Jeff Bezos Factor than it is of any sort of commentary on the consumer you do not agree with that no I don't I do agree that more people are shopping on Amazon but the sales at Amazon do not equal all the sales that are being lost at all the brick and mortar stores that are shutting down yes the market share at Amazon is growing but the overall Market is shrinking because Americans are broke they have lousy job jobs they have no savings and they're maxed out on their borrowing and a lot of Americans that used to have home equity no longer have homes they're now renting and their rent goes up every year um Peter bringing it back to DC and um you know your sort of take on the markets at this point if Trump doesn't get any major policy reform through this year what happens do we crack well look I do think that we're going to get some combination of tax cuts and increased government spending through Congress and it may be the reaction to the fact that we go back into recession and it's and it's sold as a stimulus rather than as tax reform but unfortunately you know there's no real political courage among the Republicans to do what's right when it comes to tax reform repealing Obamacare and not replacing it with anything we need the free market to solve our health care problems not more government and the other problem is Trump himself you know when he ran for president he promised not to touch entitlements he promised to increase spending on the military and we're not going to make any real progress on the deficit unless we cut entitlements unless we cut military spending so once you take that off the table it doesn't really matter what they do with the discretionary spending because it's not enough to make a real difference okay Peter always great to have you and to get your views we'll talk to you soon not exactly a massively um successful trade if you ask me over the last couple of months well I year to date it's up more than the Dow it's up more than the S&P 500 and even though the S&P is made a new high it's not much higher than it was a few months ago so the US markets have been pretty steady while foreign markets have been much stronger Emerging Markets have been very strong and I expect this trend to continue and I think it'll accelerate in the second half of the Year okay Jim's going to jump in uh the dollars retraced everything as you said is the dollar saying conclusively that Donald Trump's going to get no progrowth policies through and do you agree with it well I don't think it's really an indictment of trump more of the Federal Reserve andan I think that even if the FED hikes again in a couple of weeks I mean they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the FED uh claimed to be data dependent and they hiked interest rates despite the fact that the data uh was much weaker than they thought I think the markets are starting gu sees more Road bumps ahead for president Trump Peter Schiff is the CEO of Eur Pacific Capital and he joins us now Peter have been on assignment or vacation or whatever the last few times that you're on uh so I'm glad to have you back today um let's get straight to it and talk about the markets and what you're seeing um you know we just traded the S&P it seems that the Trump trade is alive and well and markets are continuing to fly high what are your thoughts well I think the trade has unraveled a bit remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the dollar has surrendered 100% of its gains post Trump's election and so year-to date even though the S&P is up priced in gold the S&P is actually down and if you compare the US Stock Market to other stock markets around the world the US Stock Market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks and that's what I've been doing well Gold's been bouncing around uh but we're stuck right now 1266 that'ss look at how weak the economy has been I mean you can see that uh in the retailers that are blowing up all the stores that are being shut down you can see look at the auto sales that are out again today look at the inventories piling up look at all the debt that consumers have racked up credit card debt auto loans student loans uh look what's happening with labor force participation so the economy is still weak despite all of this fed stimulus Peter you have to the things you just threw out there when you said about retail you have to admit that's more of a Jeff Bezos Factor than it is of any sort of commentary on the consumer you do not agree with that no I don't I do agree that more people are shopping on Amazon but the sales at Amazon do not equal all the sales that are being lost at all the brick and mortar stores that are shutting down yes the market share at Amazon is growing but the overall Market is shrinking because Americans are broke they have lousy jobs they have no savings and they're maxed out on their borrowing and a lot of Americans that used to have home equity no longer have homes they're now renting and their rent goes look beyond the hikes to the cuts I think we're getting ready to start a new uh easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy Divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress okay Peter but from a broader standpoint and the fact that Donald Trump can't get anything done and we've lost confidence in that Trump trade it's unraveled as you said it him being there and not having um another Administration that seem to Target Corporations I'm just throwing me a bone is it slightly more positive than the situation that existed 68 months ago well absolutely look having a b a president who is business friendly as opposed to the enemy of business is a good thing but look the valuations are not going to help Trump remember when George Bush took over from Bill Clinton he was obviously more friendly to business than was Bill Clinton but it didn't stop the stock market from collapsing because when he took office valuations were extremely high and we had the Fed propping Up the market uh with aggressive monetary policy I mean not nearly as aggressive as it's been recently but I think Donald Trump has walked into a similar situation as George Bush so even if he's friendlier to business it doesn't mean the stock market's going to do well under his presidency Peter you and I haven't talked in some time but um you have come on the show a lot telling me that the FED has no option but uh other than to Institute more quantitative easing programs and that interest rates would stay at zero forever that doesn't seem to be the case um what are the fed's moves next now well the FED is still very close to zero I mean really the target rate is still below 1% okay but we're looking at potentially two more hikes this year well even if we get two more hikes you're looking at interest rates that in real terms are negative if you take the interest rate and subtract it from the inflation rate even the one that the government reports you're looking at negative interest rates but if you actually look beneath the government statistic
Comments 0