저자: TristanCooper · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 테슬라 주가가 펀더멘털 대비 지나치게 높다고 보고 공매도 중이며, 이는 거품 붕괴에 베팅한 것이다. 버리의 논지: 2008년 미국 주택시장 공매도로 성공한 이력이 있으며, 이번에도 대중과 반대로 베팅했다. 테슬라 시총은 경쟁 완성차 업체 대비 약 5~20배 높으며, 생산능력·EPS 등에서 대부분 대형 자동차사보다 뒤처진다고 지적한다. 버리는 테슬라가 주가가 높을 때 증자를 하라고 머스크에게 조언했다고 전해진다. 다만 고평가가 곧바로 하락으로 이어진다는 뜻은 아니다. 주가 상승 요인(긍정): 2020년 3분기 인도량 약 13.9만 대로 분기 최고, 분기 흑자 지속, 2019년 EBIT 약 8,000만 달러 흑자 전환, S&P500 편입으로 패시브 자금 유입. 버리의 부정 요인: 규제 크레딧 판매 수익(2019년 5억 달러 이상, 누적 10억 달러 이상)으로 인위적 흑자를 만든다는 점, 노르웨이 등 보조금·세제 혜택에 의존한 수요, 전기차 전환의 느린 속도와 인프라 한계, 애플·독일 완성차 업체 등 경쟁 심화. 출연자 견해: 테슬라의 성과는 인정하나 8,000억 달러 시총과 포드 대비 약 20배 가치는 정당화되기 어렵다는 입장으로 보인다. 최종 판단은 시청자에게 맡긴다고 밝혔다. 리스크: 고평가 상태가 장기간 유지될 수 있어 공매도 타이밍의 위험이 있다.
다듬은 글
it is often said that if you want to be a successful investor you have to stand against the popular opinion one person who has a record of doing exactly that is michael bury he's a physician who left his medical career to start his own hedge fund okay so what happened was back in 2008 michael bat against the american housing market the very market that nearly everyone was betting on and effectively he made his clients hundreds of millions of dollars through this short back then bury looked at the numbers and saw that the risk of investing in the housing market and mortgages were far higher than what most investors were accounting for and he was right eventually the housing market took a plunge and michael was on the right side of the trade okay so today michael is also making a similar bet he's betting one more time against the popular opinion he has recently announced that he is selling the very hot stock that many investors are buying tesla just like in 2008 burri is seeing a huge gap between the actual share price of the famous electric car company and the company's actual performance a small benchmarking exercise would reveal that tesla is actually behind most other large automakers in terms of production capacity currently and earnings per share among other measures yet its market cap is about 5 10 20 times higher than its competitors so the way buri sees it is tesla's fundamentals do not support such a high share price he even went on and advised elon musk to issue more shares at the current price level to take advantage of the current market valuation because buri does not believe it's sustainable the price and even though the stock might seem overvalued to some speculators this does not necessarily mean that it will start falling right away from where it is now investor sentiment around the stock has been positive for quite a while and this upward movement was not entirely unfounded many factors have made 2020 a positive year for tesla i want to first go over tesla's positives what makes tesla a great company but then i want to go over the negatives and the reasons why buries shorten it so you know the first factor that's contributed to tesla's growth is their deliveries for instance tesla delivered over 139 000 vehicles to its customers in the third quarter of 2020.
this is the highest number of units that tesla has ever delivered in a single quarter and for a market that is hungry for good news this was more than enough the stock price increased following this news so tesla's deliveries have been growing steadily over the years however they are still below the company's selling capacity tesla can make 690 000 units a year in total from all its factories worldwide but its annual sales are still below 500 000.
it must close this gap if it wants to make the most of its resources and increase efficiency the second factor behind the ryzen tesla stock price is that the company is now generating a quarterly profit consistently its financial performance has been improving gradually and it is now closer to achieving the annual profitability goal in 2019 tesla's earnings before interest and tax were 80 million which is an impressive figure and the first positive ebit earnings before interest tax annually third and perhaps the most important factor and i'm sure you guys are aware of this tesla has been recently added to the s p 500 this is used as most analysts benchmark to measure how american equities are doing for many investors this is a psychological milestone it gives them a moral boost especially given that the s p 500 has had an extended uptrend that lasted for 10 years before the pandemic and now it has recovered to reach new all-time record highs for tesla being in the s p 500 would mean that the stock has now become more valuable from a portfolio composition standpoint it now results in its stock being bought automatically by passive investment funds that track the index in other words by joining the renowned index tesla has become a part of so many portfolios around the world that hold or track the s p 500 those three factors have helped the stock achieve unprecedented momentum the question is how long will this last michael bury at least if you go by his short position on tesla stock he does not think that this momentum will last and he's actually betting on this being a bubble and a popping so what are the reasons first of all it's sale of regulatory credits not vehicles has given it this push this artificial push it needed to get closer to making a profit for those who don't know regulatory credits are units granted to companies by authorities to set a limit on how much carbon emissions they can let into the atmosphere for a company like tesla which is 100 compliance all of those credits can be sold since it does not use them the sale of regulatory credits alone has brought to tesla more than half a billion dollars in 2019.
they're a good source of revenue that tesla has successfully tapped into and by considering the revenue from selling those credits in previous years tesla has cumulatively earned over 1 billion dollars thus far all at zero cost another qualm that a lot of tesla shorts have is that the demand for the vehicles uh some of it at least is artificial because in many countries where electric vehicles are being sold customers are benefiting from generous tax rebates this means that a considerable part of the demand for electric vehicles is not driven by the customer's desire to purchase electric vehicles but by incentives from the governments now this can be clearly seen in one of the biggest markets worldwide for electric vehicles norway if you combine the subsidies that tesla have received along with the tax rebates given to its customers it shows that the success that tesla has enjoyed comes partially at least from government policies which some people at least are arguing that it's not sustainable another reason that the shorts have is that yes the transportation sector is a big contributor to carbon emissions and relying on electric cars would surely help reduce those emissions there's no doubt about it but this transition is taking place quite slowly and it'll take years if not decades to complete it requires a change in infrastructure and the economics need to make sense for both the consumers and the producers it may be one story for the usa to get this infrastructure but other countries around the world it's not so easy or profitable electric vehicles they existed even before fuel engine cars did but they did not become popular because fuel based cars were much cheaper to use at least back then for electric vehicles to become the norm economic feasibility and efficiency is a must it should not cost a lot of money for customers to buy and drive an electric vehicle nor should it take so much time for them to find a charging station and fully charge the car progress needs to be made in those areas and the question is the progress has not been made yet so why is the price so high this is what michael bury is questioning aside from all of these other downsides uh tesla also has to deal with competition this is one of the main things that that is causing shorts to to come into the market you know what can we say news has surfaced that apple the deep pocketed giant is in the process of making its own electric car based on the reports we would see an electric car from apple in 2024 apple's ability to make good software is not debatable moreover even in the energy storage domain the company does offer good lithium-ion batteries both of those capabilities make apple a worthy contender for tesla but apple was just one small potential competitor you've got big german automakers they're also working on producing their own electric vehicles from scratch instead of trying to adjust their older fuel-based models all of these companies are far superior to tesla in terms of production capacity and you can also argue engineering prowess so michael bury is not entirely out of touch with reality when he said that the price of tesla's stock is too high yes tesla have done well over the years they're the leading electric car manufacturing company that's for sure they're the leaders in renewable energy but are they rarely worth over 800 billion dollars which it's currently valued at is it rarely worth 20 times the amount of ford's valuation michael bury certainly doesn't think so and i've outlined some of the key reasons why he shorted it but the main one is the price that's the question that every investor wants to know does tesla justify its price michael brewery doesn't think so other investors do well you make up your mind on whether you think they do or not
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