저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 증시는 백신 보급과 경기 재개로 하반기부터 강한 회복이 예상되며, 팬데믹 중 강한 기업이 더 강해진 만큼 우량 대형주 중심 투자가 유리하다는 주장. 2020년 애크먼은 신용시장 투자로 약 70% 수익을 냈으며, 시장 평균은 약 16% 수준이었다고 언급. 팬데믹으로 재무구조가 약한 기업은 도산하고 강한 기업은 시장 점유율을 확대했다는 워런 버핏의 '썰물' 비유를 인용. 향후 90~120일은 바이러스 충격으로 단기 악재가 예상되나, 여러 백신이 있고 약 30일 후부터 접종이 시작될 예정. 2021년 하반기에는 팬데믹이 대부분 종식되어 여행·외식·극장 등 억눌렸던 소비(저축 누적)가 폭발할 것으로 전망. 바이든 행정부는 법인세·소득세 인상을 추진하지 않을 것으로 보며, 옐런 연준 의장 체제에서 저금리와 고용 중시 기조가 유지될 것으로 예상. 위기 중 기업들이 비용 구조를 축소(예: 힐튼 간접비 25~30% 절감)해 '린(lean)'해졌고, 이는 회복기에 수익성 개선으로 이어질 것이라고 주장. 호황 말기에는 기업이 지출을 느슨하게 하는 경향이 있으나 팬데믹은 이를 필수 지출로 줄이게 만든다고 설명. 애크먼은 소수 종목 집중 투자를 강조하며 최대 보유 종목은 로우스(23.3%), 치폴레(16.3%), 스타벅스(9.9%)로 모두 강한 고객 기반을 가진 우량 기업이라고 소개. 소규모 경쟁자는 문을 닫겠지만 대형 브랜드는 살아남아 경쟁이 줄어드는 구조가 유리하다고 평가. 결론적으로 2021년은 수익성 있는 해가 될 수 있으나 신중하게 투자해야 한다는 메시지.
다듬은 글
billionaire investor bill ackman achieved get this a 70 return in the stock market in 2020. while most investors were struggling ekman was absolutely crushing it now this is interesting because ackman has been talking about his thoughts on 2021 where he's investing how 2021 is different to 2020 and where he thinks the market is heading this year and that's the crux of what i want to cover in this video but very quickly for those who don't know who ackman is he's a billionaire hedge fund manager he's a long time follower of warren buffett he's considered to be a contrarian investor and he was one of the few who actually made money from the pandemic market crash in march 2020.
he did this through the credit markets but that's 2020 let's talk about 2021 what companies have the opportunity to do well this year what the pandemic has done is it's really disrupted uh you know the less you know companies with bad balance sheets uh without being technologically enabled have been impaired many of them unfortunately the smaller ones have gone out of business whereas the well-capitalized dominant companies have actually improved their market position so um you know surviving a pandemic or having the ability to profit pandemic puts you in a strong competitive position coming out of it and so you think simple example starbucks is a significant holding think about how many fewer coffee shops they're going to be competing against one of their principal competitors in china a company called luken that was building you know very large number of stores every year turned out to have been a fraud and the tide rolls out you see who's swimming naked so to speak so i'll try explain a little bit as to what he's getting at so what happened in the 2020 pandemic a lot of companies struggled right some obviously a lot more than others this resulted in the companies who had worse financial positions to close doors shut down in this meant the companies who were in strong financial positions got even stronger because the competition weakened so the strong companies got stronger and the weak companies got weaker this is why you've seen companies like amazon shoot up and share price walmart same thing tesla too they all went up because the pandemic wiped out some of their competition it says warren buffett says only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked when things like the 2020 pandemic comes along if your business model is not watertight if it's not solid if your finances are not ready you will get wiped out and this is good for your competition so what is he trying to say it's those bigger companies that have done well and will do well from the pandemic and if we look at akman's portfolio which we'll see later on it's those big companies that he owns so 2020 all in all we can agree it wasn't the greatest year for the economy and the stock market was pretty average where does ekman see stocks heading in 2021 i do think you know we are set up for a very strong recovery in 2021 i think the virus is going to be frightening and a disaster for the next i call it 90 120 days so that's the big negative news in the short term but we have you know multiple successful vaccines and probably more coming we're going to have fairly wide distribution of those vaccines beginning you know as early as 30 days from now and i think by the second half of next year we'll be you know probably out of the pandemic for the most part in the first you know kind of what you might call first world and i think um you'll be you know you have a new president coming in uh is going to be very concerned about the economic recovery so i don't think biden's going to take any steps to increase corporate taxes for example or even personal income taxes uh you're going to have you have janet yellen now running the fed who's going to be you know i think quite supportive of employment and the economy so you can expect low interest rates you have you know well capitalized banks and then you have a large build-up of savings on the part of uh americans and really globally as people haven't spent haven't gone out to eat they haven't gone out to the theater they haven't gone to a movie they haven't gotten on a plane uh and and i would say animal spirits are building up i don't know about you but i am the moment i first can actually travel and go places so i think you're going to see a huge recovery um even in business so he thinks specifically with the second half for 2021 we're gonna see things pick up because at the end of the day how long can you stay locked up shut down unable to travel unable to work or go out for a gathering there's only so long that you can get away with telling people your business needs to be closed stay at home eventually people need to get on with their lives and as ackman was saying we're all starting to get itchy feet now we all want to get on with our lives and at least ekman thinks in 2021 that's gonna start happening this is great for businesses we've also got a new president coming in i'm not sure if you guys are aware of that one not sure how you feel about it nevertheless there's big motivation for the president to grow the economy all voters will be looking to see how he does and it's the same with the fed they have similar motivation to help the economy rebound so you've got the people who are gunning for a strong economy a reopening and a strong stock market and then you've got the governments you've got the fed the business owners all backing this up too and this is all part of the recipe that ackman's talking about for stocks to go well in 2021 another thing that he mentions is the re-strengthening the refocusing the leaning up of a lot of companies here's what he said so i think you're going to see a fairly rapid recovery beginning sometime late q2 q3 q4 low interest rate environment a ton of savings to be deployed it could be pretty you know favorable and then you have a lot of companies that use the crisis to kind of tighten up their cost structure you know hilton cut i think something like 25 to 30 percent of their corporate overhead costs and i and you know success does breed a certain looseness with expenses and a crisis does the opposite you can have some lean leaned up companies coming out into a very strong environment so i think there's a pretty good chance for a very strong stock market next year you see in a bull market especially nearing the end of one companies often become a bit loose with their spending oh yeah it doesn't matter we'll give bonuses out everywhere we'll upgrade our car fleet we'll modernize the buildings some of these expenses are not necessary and what a pandemic does is it forces companies to cut down to essential spending and it forces them to refocus on their business and mission when the economy starts to open up this is a recipe for success in the market because you've got these lean driven companies mixed with a marker of people ready to consume and invest these are the factors that add up to ackman's prediction for a hot stock market so to speak so the question becomes well how do we profit from this what strategy can we use ackman as i mentioned earlier on he achieved a 70 return in 2020.
you go and look at the market they achieved a 16 return that year so he's not a bad person to go to for advice let's just say that he said recently as buffett said diversification is protection against ignorance so we own very few investments we might identify one or possibly two investments a year and most importantly we selected businesses for their inherent robustness almost all of our companies are strong investment grade companies so there's not a balance sheet threat to the businesses we own basically they focus on buying very few stocks but the ones that they do buy are high quality robust and financially well positioned for example his largest stock position is lowes the retail company that's been around for almost 100 years it's got a strong business model strong customer base and that makes up 23.3 percent of his portfolio it's the same deal with his second largest stock chipotle and it's well known around the world strong customer base 16.3 of his portfolio so he owns these big stocks that won't just get blown away easily in a pandemic or a recession their competition might but they are much more likely to stay eg starbucks that's 9.9 percent of ackman's portfolio small coffee shops and maybe even medium-sized ones might have to shut down but it's gonna take a lot for starbucks to shut down what this does is it lowers the competition that they have to compete with and i think it's a smart strategy you don't need to own every stock in the world if you can just pick let's say six amazing quality businesses with strong potential and strong financial positions i think there's a lot of money to be made in 2021 but you got to invest smartly
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