저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 증시는 2020년 이후 과열이 식으며 약세장(베어마켓) 초입일 수 있고, 바닥은 단정할 수 없다는 신중론. [시장 상황 진단] 2016~2025년은 10년 연속 플러스 수익을 낸 시기였으나, 최근 들어 시장이 흔들리고 있다고 진단함. 2020년 이후 주가가 과도하게 오르며(밸류에이션 PER 18→24배) 일부 과잉이 있었고, 이익 둔화와 높은 주가가 겹침. [국내 자금 흐름] 국내 개인 투자자 수가 4,000만에서 2억 5,000만 명으로 늘었고, 매월 약 30만 명이 SIP(정기적립식 투자)로 유입 중임. 이 국내 자금이 밸류에이션 상승을 떠받쳤음. [외국인·프로모터 매도] 외국인 투자자(FII)와 프로모터(대주주)가 매도 중이며, 이로 인해 지수 PER은 역사적 저점 수준인 약 18배 부근. [바닥 논쟁] "바닥과 천장은 바보와 거짓말쟁이를 위해 있다"며 지금이 바닥이라고 누구도 말할 수 없다고 강조함. 향후 1~2년 기준으로는 PER 15~16배까지 내려갈 수도 있다고 봄. [약세장 판단] 40~45년 경력 중 좋은 뉴스에도 주가가 빠지는 약세장 징후가 4번 있었고, 현재가 그에 가깝다고 말함. MTF(신용융자) 매도, 대규모 자본 이탈 등이 나타나며 극단적 공포 국면에 들어갈 가능성을 언급함. 약세장이 얼마나 지속될지는 예측 불가. 트리거는 이란, 유가, 증권거래세·양도세(LTCG) 개편, 기업이익 등이 될 수 있음. [이익 전망] 이번 분기 기업이익은 20~25% 증가가 예상되나, 시장은 Nifty 기준 2026년 EPS 약 1,250, 2027년 약 1,450을 전망함. [대형주·중소형주] 지수 레벨은 PER 18배로 편안한 수준이나, 대형 금융주(SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis 등)는 PER 10~13배로 저평가. 중소형주는 이익 성장이 높아 여전히 고평가 상태. [IPO 시장] 프로모터 매도가 계속되면 IPO 열기가 식고 사람들이 IPO에 관심을 잃는 시점이 올 것이라고 봄. [유가·지정학] 12개월 전 유가는 배럴당 약 60달러였으나 현재 115~120달러. 전쟁 종료 시 유가 급락 가능성 언급. [환율·외국인 자금] 루피 약세가 먼저 시작됐으며, 경상수지 적자와 자본수지 변동이 커지는 구조. 정책 당국의 대응을 신뢰한다고 밝힘. 국내 SIP 자금은 구조적으로 강해져 외국인 매도 충격을 흡수하고 있음. [외국인 투자 유치] Akash Prakash 등 FII 전문가들은 MSCI 내 인도 비중이 줄어 인도가 투자처로서 관련성을 잃고 있다고 지적함. 해외 투자자 접근성(미국처럼 쉽게 주식을 사는 구조) 개선, 양도세 등 세제 경쟁력 개선이 필요하다고 주장함. 장기 세금 부담이 투자 매력을 낮추므로 장기적으로 매력도를 높여야 한다고 말함. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기적으로 약세장 진입 가능성과 바닥 불확실성을 강조. 중장기적으로는 인도 경제 성장과 이익 성장을 근거로 구조적 낙관을 유지함.
다듬은 글
To ignite a new ray of hope, the country's renowned investor guru, Motilal Oswal Group Chairman Ramdev Agarwal Sir is joining us today. Ramdev Sir, thank you so much for taking out time for CNBC Awas. We saw what you call an extraordinary decade from 2016 to 2025, Ramdev Sir, 10 years of positive returns together.
Now finally, that matter is getting a little shaky, so now the risk reward equation. How do you see the situation at this time? Yes, they say, we are priced to perfection or do you still see scope for falling or have we fallen more than necessary, sir. No, I have not fallen more than necessary. Yes, some excesses were also committed.
What happens? Earnings had slowed down and prices were very high. What is the biggest revolution that has happened in the domestic flow? The change that came in the market after 2020, the entire country is coming through SIP, which means 30 lakh investors are still coming every month. So the number of investors which has increased from 40 million to 250 million and is still increasing is the biggest change in the market and due to the inflow of the same money the valuation also increased from 18 to 24 p and because of the same valuation the FI felt that we should sell from here because other markets are more attractive than this.
Ok? Now what happened after that when your attraction is to sell even to the promoters. Now we are selling FI as well as promoter. So due to this reason, now the market has reached such a level where historically this is the lowest price. The lowest multiple is 18, right? Our market is moving around 18.
Right now I am talking about TDTM. If we consider the next one or two years, then it can also be 15 or 16 years. So we're closer to the bottom are we ? Right now nobody can tell that this is the bottom. Bottoms and tops are made for fools and liars. And I Don't Want to Be Another of the Classes. Ok?
So clearly we are so what it is, it will test a little more patience. Gave you a one-way return from 20 to [sound of clearing throat] 20 to 24 after COVID. Meaning, it gave a lot of returns and from 24 till now [sound of clearing throat] particularly since last one year, for the first time it seems like there is an atmosphere of recession.
See, in my 40-45 years, this has happened four times, when even with good news the market falls, meaning stocks fall, that is a proper bear market, so we are into a bear market, so I should say that the fuzz when captivation is happening like this, MTF selling is coming like this, you said the extreme fuzz of the bear market, we have seen such very selectively, so it is possible that we are going into that bear market and towards the lower ebb of that bear market.
Now it is difficult to say how long it will last, should I say so? Yes, that's the thing brother, nobody knows ah this could happen tomorrow, it could happen the day after tomorrow. What will be the trigger, ah will Iran be the trigger, will oil price be the trigger, or will it be because of the securities tax that we are talking about , long term capital gains tax or will it be because of corporate earnings.
Because corporate earnings are also expected to increase by 20-25% in this quarter. So look, after combining all this, your lower valuation creates lower valuation in itself. Meaning, as it is said that in one sense, cities come out from inside the earth and in another sense, cities also come out from the sky above.
The valuations that India is getting right now. Now I can say that he is comfortable. I think it is quite comfortable. Broad means it is definitely comfortable at the index level. But is the index representative of large caps? Yes. Isn't it ? So like you have HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, you have Reliance.
All this became TCS, Infosys. So all these tech banks, industrials, big industrials, automotive companies, all these come in your index. Isn't it ? But the mid and small ones are in a different league in themselves. His levels are quite high. Because the earnings growth is a little higher on that side.
So it is not like the entire market has come down to 18p. Ok? So even now corrections are being made at many places. Yes. So that corrective phase is going on and because of that, the flood of your IPO is not decreasing. Meaning, at this level of promoter selling, there will come a time when the IPO market will cool down considerably.
Meaning you cannot have IPOs. So far, I mean, we had the celebration of IPO. Isn't it? The Biggest and the Best IPOs Happened Till Tomorrow. Isn't it? So now such a time will come when the market will become so calm that no one will be interested in IPO. Because if I still have that fuzz left. Now that's all that's left.
So the index might stay here but that fuzz will come. When IPOs Will Not Be Hated by the People. So all these signals of the market bottoming out would have happened and one morning it became known that the war was over. Oil price has crashed, you know that all this will happen. Look, 12 months ago the oil price was $6.
Today it's 115 $120. So I don't know what will happen after a year. If by chance $ happens after one year then the index will be different. I can buy a good thing at a good price. Let's see how the global dynamics play out. Look further, till 2000 we never worried about the market. Let me tell you. A cycle started ever since your TV channel started.
So because of that what happened next they all started seeing the world. You show it every second. Meaning, who knows what index is ? No one knew, it does not mean that everyone was not aware of their respective share markets, no, no, it cannot be, you people have told about the index with you, you have done a very good job, very good work, it means you have informed, you have made the market efficient, but I am telling you that till 2000 we did not talk about the index, we only used to think what is going to happen in the shares, that is the share and even the ups and downs, we did not understand that much, but now the talk of index, global talk has become so much, well, players have also come into it, FI also has a lot of meaning in playing, you mean the scale of everyone has changed.
Isn't it ? So now that social media is so well informed and AI has also come, it means that you can do research at such a level for free. So everyone is extremely well informed and yet psychologically everyone is very weak. You have said many interesting things about these one by one. First, you are right about what happened post-Covid?
There was a sudden surge in earnings. Now those earnings are probably normalizing and the stock market is discounting that. But Ramdev Sir, you just said that perhaps earnings are returning to growth. But those head winds, that crude oil, all those headaches are still there. In such a situation, you are not even bothered about EPS cuts, EPS downgrades, margin pressure etc.
Whatever had to happen has happened. He has become that. Right now, at least for this year, what they are saying is that brother, they are talking about 20 to 25% growth in NIFI earnings. I do n't know how much respect I will get next year 27-28. But they are saying that 15% growth will come from there also.
So 1250 is speaking for this year. Talking about 1450 EPS for next year. Right now this is the best estimate we have. So there is not much concern on the earnings growth side right now. C ultimately the foundation of the market is earnings and earnings growth. Yes. If you have earnings and earnings growth then everything will be fine.
Everything will be fine. Yes. So what I'm looking at is if there are no earnings then what are you talking about ? If there is no earnings growth then what is the point? But the good thing is that the economy is growing very healthy. You have earnings growth, you should improve the growth of the economy, GDP is good, but those earnings are not getting translated into the results of India Inc.
It is not happening, it is happening this time, see, this means that earnings growth is returning, what is this, you are sure, we are sitting on that pivot, yes, yes, yes, you talked about mid-caps and small-caps, there can still be animals, there can be expensive pockets, they had a field day for two years, the mid-cap and small- cap universe showed very good outperformance, the large-caps have massively underperformed, is now the time to pivot like those large-cap compounders, do you guys think so, I personally think that we should bet on large-caps, the good large-caps, its price means very high, if suppose it used to be 20, now it is 12-13, now look at all the banks, whether you take SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis, all of them are 10, 12, 13 type, if this is what I mean brother, this is your nose on the entire market.
If this is yours in 10, 12, 13 then the index also seems expensive at 18, so clearly something has to change, all this means 18, 20%, 25% growth. They have to reflect. So right now there is a lot of money in the large cap finance sector, that will also change. How will he change now? Why will it change?
Do n't ask me when it will change. But all these will be turnarounds. Well, whether the TV channel did it or not. We all are well informed. Nowadays, Ramdev Sir, we discuss the same thing every morning. First of all let us show you where the crude oil stands? Where bond yields stand and where the dollar index stands and I think all of this is linked to the West Asia crisis.
This impact, this increasing headache, is for all the global markets. Many markets like ours also depend heavily on crude oil. Why are we washing this alone? Why are we so lonely and venerable in space? I think this is to some extent due to the currency situation, our vulnerability is large capital inflow and outflow, which means both the current account and the capital account will be negative this time.
The current account used to be slightly negative always but the capital account used to be in surplus. That is how it used to maintain balance and sanity. What is it this time? Actually, the current account is very much under kind of officer 1% kind of, but the capital account has increased a lot because of sustainable FI selling.
So what is this now? The policy makers or the government whoever is governing the system, the financial system, they are very well informed economists sitting there, they are thinking day and night, they are consulting day and night, so obviously this is a complex subject, they will take the right decision.
I mean, so far they have managed like this, so they will manage well. Well, as far as [sound of clearing throat] is concerned, domestic flows are concerned, which you discussed about retail SIP flows. Structurally, we are becoming very strong and whatever FI selling came, we have helped in absorbing it very beautifully.
At least look towards a shock absorber. Now Ramdev Sir, because you people also keep an eye on the pulse of retail in Motilal Oswal. Off late that MTF selling etc. is intensifying. We who entered the post-Covid markets had never seen such a situation before. When even veterans like you are saying that they have never seen a bear market.
So for us, panic is increasing. This structural floor on which we have been trusting till now will stand firm with the judge or now you are getting a feeling in conversations, in interactions with retail that maybe the matter may start going wrong if this pay continues, it did not happen till last month, then not at all SIP sting, yes either that is the only support, rest all are selling and promoters, promoters have been selling MTF for two weeks, etc., a little panicky, not MTF and now all this is a program of speculators, it is all the talk of speculators, but you believe that those structural flows will remain, right now see you can say only thing about what has happened, whatever has happened till last month remains the same.
Got it? There is actually such a system of SIP that it will not mess up much. Meaning, some very big trouble will have to be created for that. Only then will it break because the commitment involved in it has probably become a habit for 36 months. She got used to it. So that will continue. And everyone is saying that brother, you keep going.
Keep it going during bad times. And it is actually the right thing. If you play in 24 KP and do not play in 18 and 16 then there will be a big problem. Then how will it work like this? I clearly think that it is structural, this will remain, this SIP flow will remain, now the question is that how will the rest of your primary market, from where IPO rating is happening and FI flow, be handled, that is, what will that turn around, that is, how will the currency be handled, I think the only concern I have is the currency and thinking about the currency as you said, everything is in West Asia, but actually before the Iran crisis price started, pressure had started on the currency.
Our currency had already started moving down. So this means it is such a complex subject. I don't want to say anything on that. That's why you need experts. Just explain the gist to us. What do you want us to do? No. Yes. So look, I am sitting in Equity Mall. I am a local man who gives it peacefully.
Invested in the country. Got it? So now it means okay friend, we will see the pen, whatever it is. Whatever I mean now we have become Iranian type. Let whatever comes come. Okay Ramdev sir, you go ahead. Domestic inflows will continue. It is possible that mutual funds have advertised very smartly and hence it has become ingrained in our minds.
SIP has to be continued and that is happening. This is a headache for FPIs. That FIS money, that exodus, is continuing. When will it stop? When will you come back? What do they want to see? You guys must be having conversations. What do they want to see when it's a tight turn? See, today Akash Prakash is the most established FII company in Singapore, he is a very sincere and a very good fund manager, if you look at his article today, Business Statement, he has written it completely very well that India's relevance is going to end, meaning from 21 taka you have become 10 taka in MSCI, so people are underweight in that 10 taka, that means 5-7%, now we have about 5-7% allocation, so it means India is becoming irrelevant.
So we have to become relevant as an economy, we are relevant, right? But as an investing destination we are becoming irrelevant. So we should also think where we are doing wrong that brother we are not relevant. What's the problem? Listen, you know that FM is saying that brother, we will listen to them.
There is openness, who will listen to taxation? Listen, there is no taxation. What other problems are there? Why don't we now and also Joe like I mean why FI as well? Why can't foreign citizens buy here right now? C You are going to an empty institution. For example, today in America, if you have dollars and you want to buy Microsoft shares, you can buy them in 1 minute.
But in India, if someone wants to buy Reliance or anything else, or wants to buy an index, then it is a very difficult process. So why can't we open to the whole 7 billion population and easy entry into this country. Hmm. You Know. So now see all this, when problems arise, out of the box solutions will come.
I am, right? We should see what social media posts will be available. Right now I feel that the budget is being made, there are not many announcements yet, the thing is interesting. Well, I don't know whether Auto the Boss will come or not. One thing that is known or evidence is that regarding market taxation, be it LTCG or STT, it is being cited that the markets with which we compete globally do not charge anything.
We are not giving any returns. They are also taking taxes on top of that. What should be done actually? Brother and even if suppose FM does it, Indian [sound of clearing throat] Indian government does it, then after that lots of FPIs will come, it will be a game changer, isn't it that it is a key, it is not like that, but looking at the long term, isn't it that I need it within 6 months, there is no such situation that if you remove LTCG, then their entire view will change from tomorrow, it is not like that, they are also coming to earn money, yes, so their post tax return that gets hurt by 15% of whatever long term taxes are there, so in the long term you will have to make it more attractive because our attraction as a destination is reducing.
Your allocation has reduced, which means that you should at least play at the level, yes, wherever you see the level, you can push into the corporate earnings. What is there is there is not there. The economy is doing well and it is the fastest growing economy, so your fastest growing EPS growth will also come.
You should know this and keep it. If there is a fastest growing economy, then there will also be fastest growing corporate profits. So now what is the question, the second thing is that is it the best big call taxation destination, is it comparable at least you should not get spoilt in that, so you can do that work, okay, what is in the mind of the policy makers right now, I feel that if we do it for them then we should do it locally, we can do it domestically also, you can mean you can make a choice, you can do it for the foreigners, we have different problems, we pay tax in a different way.
So let the domestic ones remain, there are such things also. But at least give that priority to them with the global investors because I think we should do it logically.
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