원문 보기
Tom Lee just expressed his thoughts on the " bear" market for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. He says it's been canceled. We may see significant movement soon. So, we'll break it all down. We'll also look at why the market is a bit "red" today, why the 10- year bond yield is soaring to its highest level since January 2025.
Oil is also becoming more expensive here. We'll also look at my price forecast, okay? If you put a gun to my head and said, "You have to tell me when Bitcoin will bottom and how high we will go." You know, it's probably stupid to make predictions like that, but I thought it would be interesting, right?
Of course, I can't see the future, but I'll share my thoughts on how much money you can make during the next bull rally. And I want to hear your thoughts on this in the comments below the video. Let's begin. So, if you want to start trading cryptocurrency, check out Bitforex at the link below the video.
You can trade Bitcoin and stocks there. In my opinion, this is the best time to trade as we are still at relatively low positions compared to where we would be during a bull market and Bitforex is holding a $10,000 giveaway. We just finished one a few days ago and are now launching a new one. Last month we gave away over $10,000 in prizes, and we will do the same this month, depending on your trading volume.
You can get up to $10,000 in Bitcoin. And this applies to everyone who has ever registered. This isn't just to attract new users. This is a reward for those who actually trade on the platform. There is also a link to Blowfin where you can get up to $30. You can get $30 airdrop just for completing registration, receive these funds, and even make money from this airdrop.
So check it out. Both links are in Linktree under the video. As we can see, Bitcoin is still holding at 78,400. The market has now subsided a bit. The broader market too, due to the events taking place in Iran. But you can see that we are still just below the 50- week moving average. This is a great level to watch to see if we are exiting a bear market.
It is usually a good sign when we break higher, it means a bull market is starting , and when we hold this level as support, this also usually happens in a bull market. So hopefully we'll break through this level. It will also likely show a higher high if we break through the $83,000 mark. Mid-investing explains why we are down a bit now.
Two Saudi oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz last night. Each ship carried 2 million barrels of oil. So oil prices rose by about 3%, and 10- year bond yields reached their highest level since January 2025. The probability of a rate hike in September is 65%, up from 30% last week, which is why the market is currently falling.
Now let's watch Tom Lee explain his thoughts on the crypto market and what's next. Yes, I agree. I mean, every time the market is flat for a week, people start thinking that a " bear" market is starting, you know? So I think people become pessimistic very easily because of this. I know. What about cryptocurrency and Bitcoin?
That was strange, wasn't it? What do you associate this movement with? Meeting with executives at the White House, or was he just ready? So, I think we look at it this way: first, the fundamentals of crypto have been good this year because we know that the tokenization movement is very strong. I mean, Robinhood was a breakthrough product launch.
Truly one of the greatest hits. And agent-based AI is useful for crypto, but we were in the midst of "crypto-ism ." I really think the catalysts have converged and will actually strengthen significantly by the end of the year because, first of all, crypto is the best- performing macro asset in Q3 so far.
So I think there will be institutional allocation of funds to crypto in September and the fourth quarter. Secondly, you know, the four-year crypto cycle actually ends next month. So I think people who turned off the crypto on their screens will come back. Korean investors who have been very active in crypto, you know, they switched to AI earlier this year , but we're already seeing volume growth in Korea.
So, they are returning to cryptocurrencies. And finally, if the Clarity Act were to pass, which could happen this year, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are in for a great fourth quarter. And is cryptowinter over? Will the significant growth in the third and fourth quarters offset the decline in Bitcoin that we have seen over the past year?
Yes, I think the crypto winter was quite mild, although there was a massive reduction in the debt burden, like in October, and then twice more earlier this year. Therefore, I believe that few people own cryptocurrency. That's why I think Bitcoin could very well reach six-figure values. What happens when we see interest rates rise?
Regarding the crypto market. I think this will be a serious test. But we already know that long-term rates have risen. So if rates rise and long-term bond yields fall, it would effectively be an easing of monetary policy. So, it could all depend on how long-term yields respond to the Fed's rate hike.
You said there would be a jump in the value of cryptocurrencies. It seems like the last time you were on our air. Did you mean exactly that or even more, up to 90,000? I don't remember exactly what you said, but you thought he was Yes. must take off. I guess this is the beginning? Yes, this is the first stage of growth, because this cryptocurrency movement came as a surprise to many.
Of course. I think institutional investors are buying up crypto stocks. It's really noticeable. Trading volumes have increased significantly, a sign that they are betting on a strong fourth quarter. You once mentioned the figure of 150,000 for Bitcoin. Have you not given up on such forecasts or, perhaps, even higher ones ?
I think 150,000 is still possible. Uh... It's not that far . Yes, and I believe the S&P also has significant upside potential through the end of the year. You know, 8200 is probably still an underestimate of what the S&P can achieve by the end of the year, given how much earnings forecasts have been revised upwards.
We originally expected the figure to be 350 in 2027. It's now 415, but next year, earnings could reach 425. So they're asking, is this the end of the bear market? He doesn't say it outright, but he says he thinks we could see a price of $ 100,000 soon, or maybe even $150,000. He notes that many have an insufficient share of cryptocurrency in their portfolios and are looking to purchase it in the fourth quarter, and we have already seen a significant jump in capital.
It's not specified exactly which ones, but BM, R, and MSTR have all risen significantly , by about 30%, even despite the stock selloff. So this is a great indicator that there are huge buying volumes behind such stocks. And it's stated that people are probably trying to get access because we usually bottom out around the fourth quarter of this year.
Even if the S&P 500 has a lot of upside potential, say, going up 10% by the end of the year, despite the midterm elections and the Fed raising rates, I think it will be very difficult to push Bitcoin to 150,000. And he mentions that we could hit 150,000 pretty soon. I do n't see Bitcoin doubling when the S&P 500 is up 10%, although I could be wrong, right?
I could be wrong, but I would be very happy if I were wrong. But we usually hit bottom over the next few months, and he notes that we will see a lot of institutional buying at that time, which is true. In my opinion, many people wait until the beginning of the fourth quarter to start investing in cryptocurrency because that is usually the best time, and even if they are wrong, they can say that they bought when we were still 30-40% below the peak.
And historically, this was the best time to buy. So you can find arguments for it , even if we have n't hit rock bottom yet. I just don't see, I just don't see us growing 100% that quickly. It usually takes a while to get out of the bottom of a bear market . It's not like everyone is suddenly excitedly investing in Bitcoin a week after the bottom of the bear market.
On the other hand, of course, we can have big shifts. I mean, in 1 week we went from 63,000 to 80,000. That's almost instantaneous. And now it's kind of the new normal. It seems like only a few weeks have passed . However, we did not break through many key resistance areas. This is not the same as reaching a new higher high.
We did not break through the 50-week moving average. We have not broken the 100,000 mark , a key psychological level . Of course, there are many obstacles we will face as we eventually break out to new all-time highs. With that in mind, I think you probably still have time to average out the cost of your investments.
Well, I applied cost averaging today . I'm not trying to hit the perfect moment or anything. I know we're up 20% from where we were a few weeks ago, but at the end of every month I look at how much I made and I put a certain percentage into a Bitcoin ETF, and yes, I just did that today. Yes? The first of September.
Time to average dollar cost. I am not perfect. I'm not trying to hit the perfect moment. I'm not going to buy right at the bottom. I'm not going to sell at the very peak, but we're still well below the all-time high. Yes? I averaged the dollar value back here, on the first of every month. And I will continue to do so for some time to come.
I might stop when we break the 100,000 mark, or depending on how the bull market develops. I can stop on a certain day. In the previous cycle, I stopped when we reached the Bitcoin halving , I think it was April 20, 2024, around that time. So you might say, "Well, this is the height of a bull market." Well, yes, but I averaged the value over this entire time in the bear market too.
So yes, I bought a few times for 60- something thousand. These were, in fact, my most expensive purchases. Many purchases were in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. Many purchases were in the $20k range and even below $20k. So I think it will be similar this time in the "bear" market . You might be able to buy 80k, then 65k, then 70k, then 63k, then 80k again , but ultimately, assuming we don't have some massive crash and we don't get stuck at 48k for a very long time, your average value, if you average it out over the entire bear market, is probably going to be somewhere around 65k or 70k.
And if we go up to $150k or $200k, that's a pretty good average value. Of course, we can go higher. Let me know what your predictions are for when we will hit rock bottom and perhaps how high we will soar. Write in the comments, if you've watched this far , what you think these numbers will be . If I had to guess when we would hit rock bottom ?
I would say maybe October 10th. Almost a year after our peak . And then, what point will we reach during this bull market? Well, we went from 69,000 in 2021 to 126,000. Honestly, the jump isn't that big. Okay, we're talking about an 82% increase from the previous peak before that. If we did something like that, it would take us to a level, you see, it would take us to 200,000, 220,000.
Uh, 230,000, somewhere in that area. So yes, 230,000. I think it's possible. I wouldn't be surprised if we slowed down a bit, maybe around 200,000. I know that sounds a little pessimistic, but we usually grow a little less each cycle and often fall short of people's expectations. Yes, many thought we would take 100,000 in 2021, and we only got to 69,000.
Many expected 150-200 thousand in the last cycle, and we got to 126. So if people are thinking about 230-250 thousand, it is quite possible that we will get to just below 200,000 and go down again . It may sound pessimistic, but it's still 150% profit over the next 3 years, which is a very good indicator.
Of course, maybe this cycle will surprise everyone and we will grow to 300,000 or 400,000. Serious changes are possible. Uh, and that's possible, right? I would be perfectly happy with that. As I said, I will gradually sell some of my Bitcoin position, but I will also hold some. I will lock in some profits during this bull market.
And yes, I will also trade, and I think you can make good money if you trade with leverage wisely. Throughout the bull market. Of course, if you want to trade, as I said, there are links to Bidfy and Blofin under the video. They are in the Linktree link below. I placed them there, not in the description itself, so as not to have a thousand links.
Well, not a thousand, I exaggerated that. Ten or fifteen links. So, if you want to watch, it's all under the video. Let us know what you think about when we will bottom and how high we will go during this bull market. And I remind you, this is not financial advice. This is not legal advice. Do your own research.
I will never write to you in the comments or in any other way to force you to invest in something I have invested in or ask you ot affect the price for you. Of course, always verify the information yourself.
Comments 0