저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 5월 영상. 현재 주택시장은 평탄하나 모기지 유예(forbearance) 300만~500만 가구가 누적 부담이 되어 차압 위기가 올 수 있다고 경고. 연준 리치몬드 시나리오(실업률 20% 지속 시 2025년까지 집값 15% 하락)를 언급. 2009년 negative equity 26%와 대비해 현재 negative equity는 약 190만 가구(2% 미만)로 제한적. 위험 요인은 일자리 미회복, 유예 종료 후 상환 부담, 소비자부채 증가 3가지. 주식·자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 단기 예측은 없고 시장 기회를 주시하겠다는 언급 수준.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here I want to take a critical look at three very important factors that are going to be necessary for us to see a foreclosure crisis I just want to be very clear upfront because sometimes when I give sort of economic projections I don't make it as clear as I should these are inflection points that we want to be careful of in other words like simple English if one two or three happen is bad and maybe we'll see a foreclosure crisis if we don't see those things happen then we might not see the foreclosure crisis all right so that's we're gonna talk about in this video I'm gonna try to keep it very simple but those are going to be the three things to watch for and yeah it gets complicated because you can have a combination of those three things as well but again I'll try to keep it as simple as possible so look let's just start with the facts the bottom line is as of April 14th there were three million homeowners in mortgage forbearance which means they're not making their mortgage payments which means right now they're kind of creating this large Thor's hammer you know kind of like every month they're not taking their payments they're building up this hammer and slowly and slowly making it larger and larger over their head and we're all just kind of waiting for that hammer to drop and crush them because then they'll be a foreclosure crisis I mean nobody really wants people to lose their homes right but that's kind of the expectation right now because this hammer every single month those three plus million people don't make their payments it gets bigger and it grows larger see right now if it falls oh I missed one payment is gonna follow my foot that's gonna suck but I'm not gonna be homeless right but if it's three to six months of no payments made or worse a year of no payments made this is going to be a problem potentially a massive problem not only that but in just recent days the latest data is suggesting that no it's not gonna be three million households in forbearance it might be as high as five to six million homes in forbearance soon which basically means we could see four to six percent on all homes in forbearance in other words that's kind of like driving down the street and one in fifteen houses is taking mortgage forbearance so imagine driving down the street and I wish I could do graphics for this but you're just gonna have to use your imagination mention one in 15 houses when you're driving down the street has a big Thor's hammer growing and getting ready to fall on it yeah and so we got to talk realistically here about what to be careful of and the three signals to be watchful of but first it's helpful to have a little bit of background and some actual data the data I'm going to use here is directly from CoreLogic and it's gonna be very helpful for us understanding what's going on here also I'm going to start with two quick projections the first projection is from the secondary mortgage market Freddie Mac predicts that prices in 2020 will increase about half of a percent and we'll see approximately a point seven percent price increase next year that's Freddie Mac okay so they think prices are gonna stay pretty flat now we're gonna go into the core logic data here in a second and see if they've lost their mind I will also add though that the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond this is one of the one of the bank's under Jerome Powell they say if unemployment stays at 20% through 2021 then unemployment can lead prices to fall by up to 15% by 2025 that is in five years we'll see prices 15% lower and then we'll see a rebound but that is a worst-case scenario model so you have to not Kevin models here these are two industry giants giving you kind of a case for 2021 and and this year and one case for the next five years as a worst case scenario now let's get into the core logic data and see what we think about this because I don't necessarily believe everything that I read actually barely believe anything that I try to multi-source everything for y'all okay here's the data from core logic let's go back to throwback year or thrown back to 2009 in 2009 negative equity was 26% that means one in four houses were upside down and now if you already were a real estate investor then or or a real-estate agent you probably know or you studied it you probably know that 2009 wasn't exactly the bottom of the real estate market 2009 was almost kind of like look the market started falling back at the beginning or rather I should say the end of 2005 we started seeing the peak was like the end of oh five right prices came down 2009 things accelerated but things that bottomed out until 2011 possibly even near the end of 2011 so this is actually a good stat to have that one in four homes had negative equity in 2009 and so what fueled a foreclosure boom I guess I shouldn't really call it a boom a foreclosure crisis in 2009 was a few different things you remember these loan programs we had things like neg AM loan programs which if you're not familiar with that here's basically the two cents on neg em hey if we did a 30-year mortgage on your loan your payment would be $2,000 a month but you don't make enough money for that how about this because prices never go down instead of you paying $2,000 and 4 percent interest how about we make you pay no interest for the first few years we'll just add the interest you owe to the back of the loan and how about your payments only $1,200 for the first let's say year or two that sounds good I mean in a year or two because prices always go up you could just refinance in the future you'll get rid of your mortgage insurance then and you're good you're off to the races you could be part of the dream of owning real estate and making money this kind of madness by the way totally real that's why they had ninja loans no income no job no assets dead people were getting loans this stuff existed and so in 2009 when one in four homeowners were upside down and of those homeowners a substantial portion of them had what were known as these subprime loans which is just basically like the stinky ugly hot potato nobody wants to hold those homeowners are like oh ok well well the lender said I could refinance hey yo can I refinance Audigier here Lehman Brothers just went BK and the world is ending the answer is no credit markets tightened and were you left with people who can't refinance people can't refinance their payment all of a sudden goes from the 1200 they thought they were going to have back to 2,000 where it should have been all of a sudden they can't even make that payment because they were never qualified to begin with they were speculating on appreciated values in the future which is moronic and guess what people are forced into foreclosure credit unlocking credit markets doesn't even mean anything because people can't then refinance because values are lower bad now let's fast forward and a little bit more of a calm way Kevin what do we got going on now well now we have 1.9 million households with negative equity as of 2019 per CoreLogic that represents less than 2% of our housing stock has negative equity in 2019 now I understand the initial thing we're thinking of a while just wait wait and see how much negative equity people have when prices fall and this is fair let's analyze that but first we have to know what goes into the underlying loans how many of these ninja and subprime loans that we have these days in fact if we look at our consumer finance department they tell us that the percentage of outside or sort of private securitization which is just a really fancy way of saying crappy loans that companies who want more money you're putting together is way low as you can clearly see by this graph it goes up in ho nine and right back down afterwards and it has not gone up since now back to core logic we can see that the average equity in a home is a hundred seventy seven thousand dollars across the country now it doesn't mean everybody has that but that's the average equity across homes in the United States which explains why on average homeowners have a net worth of close to $200,000 where tenants have a net worth around five thousand six hundred dollars this is according to the New York Times who studied the difference between the net worths of tenants and homeowners and it's exactly why I teach you in my programs down below exactly how to buy real estate in a safe way to turn your twenty thousand dollars into hundreds of thousands of dollars possibly even Millions the way I did anyway let's continue on here so we can get to the bottom of this because I don't want it to sound like like some real estate shill here if the markets gonna crash I want to know I want the answer because then maybe I could say you know what I'm out of here I'll sell and I'll be by some wedge deals later when the markets at the bottom so not doing this to try to motivate y'all like whoa go out there and buy real estate I just want to see what the actual data is all right disclaimer out of the way moving on with the data from core logic less than 10% of homeowners have less than 15% equity in other words if prices fell 15% less than one in ten would be upside down and that doesn't even mean that those people would have to sell at that time remember what we had in 2008 2009 2010 was a situation where people had to sell because not only were they upside down but they weren't too sad I mean sure if your home value if your upside down you know you owe more than your house is worth yeah you're sad but you don't go into foreclosure by choice usually you just ride it out if you can make the payment but know a lot of people were forced into foreclosure why because of these crappy loans the crappy ninja loans the subprime loans the neg em loans the adjustable rate mortgages all of that stuff is what forced people to market that's what forced prices to come down now look don't get me wrong we are not immune to risk here in fact we have three massive risks number one if jobs don't come back we could have a problem when companies furlough 80,000 people they're not going to rehire 80,000 people because consumer demand doesn't pop back it grows slowly and over time and that's a problem and that's problem number one if jobs don't come back in the same force as we're expecting them to bounce back with ya we might see some people who are forced to sell their homes and if they happen to be fixer-uppers they will depress values in neighborhoods number two let's say we get forbearance and we get forbearance for six months and we get forbearance for up to 12 months but then they say you know what yeah oh all the money that's due and then guess what people either a didn't get the job they were expecting and had to get a lower paying job or they got rehired at the same company about the same company is offering them less pay citing less demand then yeah people are probably going to have to sell their places and whatever equity they have is going to get script because of lower prices and people having to sell their houses so this is where yeah that Federal Reserve projection of a possible longer-term decrease in prices of 15% by 2025 that doesn't seem unrealistic if people don't get their jobs back if people don't get them back at the same pay or a bunch of them just don't get rehired or forbearance doesn't get extended or maybe it does but all of a sudden people oh well the money at the end of forbearance now there are proposals in Congress that say well okay if if people took forbearance all of those payments have to get added to the end of their loan term that's good that could solve that problem so literally in one stroke like basically kind of similar to how much effort it takes you to press the subscribe button on my channel here is how much effort it would probably take from Congress to slip a line in the next big bill coming up saying yo yeah yeah if somebody's in forbearance put what they owe at the end okay now the third big problem consumer debt consumer debt continues to race towards all-time highs and consumer debt could end up crushing people who already don't have a lot of either spare cash or spare net worth obviously I'm a big proponent of building spare net worth over cash in the bank if you're going to have cash I always recommend you leave it at a brokerage account or you invest it into index funds or are you invested into real estate and you establish lines of credit as ways of protecting yourself but there's no replacement for having some kind of an emergency you know break glass and you have access to capital if you don't have access to capital and your consumer debt is rising your credit cards are going through the roof the payday advances are going nuts and you happen to own real estate as well yeah you can be screwed as soon as the unemployment situation wears off and the stimulus is gone there is going to be a massive problem so these are the three big things we need to pay attention to as well as this Bo a bit of information and that is the offer to get two free snacks with weevil apparently expires on May 12th so make sure you sign up for a trading account with weeble it's a good place to park your cash f you deposit $100 remember you get you put open the account you get a free stock you put a hundred dollars in you get another free stock and that's the big one the first ones like the teaser stock the second ones usually the bigger one now no guarantees it could be anything between ten dollars and fourteen hundred dollars but people have been messaging me like hey I got Microsoft day I got Facebook you know that's kind of cool so what's actually happening with pricing now well right now pricing is pretty stable we're relatively flat so far for 2020 when we averaged out the entire market of the United States which is really good especially since the stock market plummeted boom in March you know in excess of thirty five percent that's insane I mean some companies shredded 70 percent of their values boom gone just like that it's absolutely unbelievable that crisis has not been seen yet in real estate now that does not mean it's not going to happen when it does mean though is now is the time to get educated about real estate investing now is the time to learn everything you can about money because if there are going to be opportunities coming up I'm going to be noticing them because I'm looking at this data every single day and I'm going to be reporting on them especially to the folks who come to my live streams every morning at 9:00 a.m.
which you are invited to join as well use the link down below now keep these three things in mind jobs not coming back people not getting as high paying of a job forbearance not getting extended that hammer dropping so to speak and consumer debt but mortgages mortgage delinquencies non-qm loans subprime loans that's not going to be where we see our problem this time it's going to be from these three thing you less than four minutes we're reducing that now because people are saying on average it's happening way faster than they thought it would which it's kind of cool that you can get life insurance on your phone that need an Apple pay for it hit subscribe and we'll see you later
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