저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Siegel 교수는 다우가 연말 전 24,000을 넘을 것으로 봤고, 법인세 인하 통과 후 추가 상승을 기대하지만 내년 수익률은 5~10% 수준으로 전망한다. 증시 전망: 세법 통과 기대가 주가를 지지하고 법인세 인하로 기업이익이 약 8% 늘 수 있다. 다만 올해 같은 15~20% 상승은 내년에 어려울 것이라 봤다. 다우는 25,000까지 약 3% 남았다. 내년 리스크: 실업률 하락에 따른 연준의 긴축 가능성과 중간선거 등 정치적 불확실성을 꼽았다. 포트폴리오: 글로벌·신흥국 비중을 높이고 있다. 유럽과 신흥국이 미국보다 싸다고 봤다. 비트코인: 버블이라고 보며 6월쯤 꺼질 수 있다고 했다. 1만 1천 달러 고점 이후 더 오를 수 있으나 결국 하락할 것이고, 선물 숏으로 변동성도 커질 수 있다고 경고했다. 11,000달러 이상으로 다시 갈 가능성은 낮다고 봤다. 단기 예측은 안 맞을 수 있다는 점도 언급했다.
다듬은 글
welcome to trading nation on there chat me today we're joined by Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel he's been on a hot streak his latest big call Dow 24000 before year's end and we got there professor Siegel welcome to the show happy to be here okay so you got doubt 24k right what's next hour 25 Dow 30 Dow 50 what are we waiting for oh well it we're going to still get a push I think toward when the tax bill is passed and I believe it will be passed I hope before New Year's I that would be best but early in January I I definitely think is odd on and I think the market of people are very worried you know don't want to sell before a very positive event I mean the corporate tax cut is particularly what I think the market wants I mean that could boost earnings by eight percent or so and you know that's that's a positive for stocks that being said to my expectation next year is not going to be anywhere near as easy this year in the markets how do you stay bold with these predictions because you know what it's like socially on Wall Street with guys are working for banks they all want to stick together because if somebody stands out as an outlier and they're wrong it makes them look bad they get voted down in rankings maybe they get fired so how do you stay bold with these predictions and not get caught up in what everyone else is doing well you know it is really interesting my colleagues think I'm crazy to come out here make predictions stick my neck out I myself as said in the short run if you're more than 55% of the time right you're a genius it is there's a lot of emotion in psychology in the short run really I try to give an idea about where I think stocks stand overall on valuation and very honestly overall the last seven or eight years I I've said they've been cheap of course very cheap right after the crisis but even when everyone was so worried about quantitative easing and everything that was going on I said stocks are still the place to be and that being said we're moving up to full valuation doesn't mean that that means there's gonna be a break in the market a bear market or anything like that but you know what do you got 15 to 20 percent and more this year that that'll be you know that'll be harder to come by in the future so what do you say to people like you said your colleagues think you're crazy do they does it affect your thinking does it mess with your mind when you hear that feedback and if you could just get all the noise and distractions out of the way do you think you'd have better predictions more bold predictions because you wouldn't be caught up with the noise of everyone else right I've been following the markets for over a half a century which I gives you a clue on how old I am so I can I think separate out the noise from the the broad factors that I think are the most important in impacting the market which are really our earnings earnings trends and and and dividends a lot of the other stuff is a short-run noise obviously got a look at inflation and what the Fed is doing etcetera and so on if there's a major change in policy but I think it's my years of experience cause me not to REO 'very act due to the short run which is of course I think the bane of so many investors obviously now that we're past doubt 24k a lot of people will wonder well what are we getting 25k so what is your answer when you hear something like that well you know as we get to these thousands of course each is a smaller increment I think right now we're only 3% away from from you turn 25 the next thousand and on the doctor tomorrow next week it's nothing yeah I you know well you know we you know we do have of course these political developments that are going to be cause of uncertainty in the market but I think the Senate is going to go through and and they're going to pass this but I think that a lot of the surge is anticipation of passing it it's positive effect earnings some people are talking about another 20 percent next year I I don't think so I think we're gonna get probably around five to ten percent return next year and there might be periods of volatility within the year itself so maybe this is a crazy question but what's in your actual portfolio right now if we looked at the Jeremy Siegel account what does that look like well I have been tilted towards global international investing particularly towards the emerging markets which as you know you know from 2014 to 2016 really suffered a major bear market actually the indices were down almost 40 percent during the plummeting price of oil I mean we had our first correction since the big bear market many other developed countries did but emerging markets were just slammed and I looked there and I said wow I mean these were selling eight nine ten times earnings I said you know I know their risk but you got to go in now even today Europe is cheaper than the US the emerging markets are cheaper than the US so don't ignore global international stocks in formulating not just your portfolio for next year but your portfolio next three to five years because I think that they do those sectors of the world do represent good value so if you're saying the US is a little more expensive than those other areas right now what might be a headwind for the u.s.
in 2018 that brings it back closer to those other levels well I mean I mean the clear headwinds I think are first of all is the Fed going to be much more aggressive as that unemployment rate keeps on going down will they have to tighten and and that that will be definitely put a pause there will be a lot of political uncertainty how are the Republicans in there doing the midterm election will they hold the Senate will they hold the house that's why it's more urgent to get what you think is right done now and not wait until a year or two when the political circumstances are not as favorable so I think you you have you have politics and you have the Fed as potential headwinds in 2018 and then finally just because I'm curious we were talking about it a little bit how often are you trading around your own portfolio is it is it frequently traded every week later or a trader I try to look at at broadcast ranch I find the day-to-day movements in the market fascinating but they produce too much anxiety when I've got a lot of money on them and I keep focused on my classes I'm still teaching at the Wharton School and I love to do that and it's easier for me to stay focused if I'm not a trading or a speculator what about in discussions with some of your students at Wharton are you hearing a lot more about Bitcoin because it feels like every high school in college yeah I know they'll choke on theirs crazy I mean ya know a lot of my student I told him it's a bubble I said that doesn't mean it can't go higher and probably will before it goes down but I really said you know and I'm my specialty is monetary theory and policy and I just don't see this as a you know a valuable alternative currency to the Dower and I personally think that this bubble will break sometime at June no one knows exactly when we might have actually seen that high when it you know surpassed 11,000 a couple days ago although it's you know today it's doing a little bit better part of it because the CME is is ok futures on it but don't forget one has to remember futures can be work both ways it's easy not only to go long but it's also easy to go short and provide a lot of pressure onto the currency so it it will increase volatility and it's not necessarily gonna be all on the upside that's you I didn't think about that the futures allow for the shorts to get involved that's a good point but you know it's gonna say we were talking about 25,000 we had Bitcoin 11 do you think there's ever going to be a point where Bitcoin is higher than now III don't think so but I keep on telling people bubbles always go a lot further than we ever imagined possible and when they break they break a lot harder than we ever thought possible so you know that's that's a warning for anyone trying to play upside or downside right now on any hot stock or currency this is great I think this interview went out a little further than anyone thought possible like that Bitcoin bubbles talking about these topics exactly you know thank you for the opportunity of course thanks a lot professor Siegel for coming on here on trading nation we really appreciate it
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