Jeremy Siegel On The Fed Chair Decision, The Dow's Next Move And More | Trading Nation | CNBC

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결론: 다우 24,000 돌파는 연내 가능하다고 보지만 그 다음 1,000포인트는 더 어렵다고 본다. 시장 전망: 다우 24,000 도달 가능성을 열어두었으며, 세법 개정 효과와 대규모 이벤트(고용보고서, FOMC)를 주요 변수로 꼽았다. 연준 의장 인선: 제롬 파월이 베팅시장에서 7:1로 유력하지만, 옐런이 나와도 시장은 무난히 받아들일 것이라고 봤다. 테일러가 지명되면 충격이 있을 것이라고 언급했다. 옐런은 개인적으로 가장 선호하는 후보로 밝혔다. 금리 전망: 12월 25bp 인상 가능성이 높고 시장도 이에 익숙하다. 11월 FOMC 성명이 2018년 공격적 긴축 신호가 될 가능성은 낮아 이벤트가 되지 않을 것으로 봤다. 인플레이션: 근원 PCE 물가는 2%를 밑돌고 있으며 유가와 휘발유 상승은 있으나 연준의 목표 미달 우려가 남아 있다고 분석했다. 세법 개정: 세법 개편 효과는 이미 다우 가격에 상당 부분 반영되어 있다고 봤다. 법안 통과 여부와 기업세 감세 규모가 관건이며, 통과 시 추가 상승, 무산 시 완만한 조정 가능성을 언급했다. 리스크: 공화당 내부 간신히 찬성 가능성(얇은 표차), 단계적 시행 여부 등 법안 파라미터 불확실성이 존재한다.

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01. we're pleased to be joined on Trading Nation by Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Finance.

02. Professor, the good thing about math is you don't need to be a PhD in anything to understand that the law of large numbers works. As the index gets bigger, the percentage moves get harder. In other words, we're only two and a half percent away from Dow 24,000. Do you think we'll get there before the end of the year?

03. Yeah, I do. I think we'll get to 24,000. I think the next thousand will be a little tougher, around 25,000. We've had a lot of gains that I think will need to be digested. The tax cut will be very important, and we'll see the Fed choice. The employment report comes Friday and the Fed meeting is Wednesday. I have almost never seen a week with this many earth-shattering economic events.

04. I actually wrote on my Facebook page on Sunday night that this will probably be the biggest and most important week of the year. Tomorrow, Wednesday, is effectively the CNBC Super Bowl: the Fed decision and the tax reform plan. But let's focus on the Fed. Jerome Powell, often called JJ Powell, is widely considered the front-runner and is well ahead in the betting markets for some reason. If the President does not nominate Powell on Thursday, does that take the air out of the stock market rally? Does it slow it or stop it?

05. Well, of course it depends on who he picks. It would be a shock, you're absolutely right. The betting market has Jerome Powell at about 7 to 1, so people are getting used to that idea, and I think they're fine with it. They'd be fine with Janet Yellen too. John Taylor would be a bit of a shock, since he has been an advocate of higher interest rates. I think he's a superbly qualified man for the position. But with the betting market so overwhelmingly behind Powell, anyone but Powell at this point would be a big surprise to the market.

06. I think Yellen would be fine. The market likes Yellen. They would be surprised if Trump kept a liberal Democrat on, but I think she's done an excellent job. She would be my first choice if I were president to continue with her. Powell is also qualified. I only wish he had deeper training in monetary theory and policy, but on regulation and financial markets he certainly has a lot of exposure.

07. Okay, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Some people may be watching this on Wednesday; we're recording on Tuesday. The Fed may decide to raise rates again, and they may talk about inflation. If there's some indication that inflation is rising faster than they expect, rate hikes could be more rapid or aggressive than we think. Right now, is that a risk to the market? Or is the global reflation strong enough that even more rate hikes won't doom this pretty amazing rally?

08. Well, the core year-over-year PCE deflator, which is the Fed's measure of inflation, is running well below 2% now. Oil has been coming up, and gasoline is up, so some of those sensitive prices are higher. The Fed's statement will tell us whether people are still concerned that we aren't reaching the target, which might mean a bit more opposition in December to another rate increase. The market now gives a nearly certain probability to a 25 basis point hike in December, about the same as the probability of Powell being chosen. The market is used to that idea, so it won't be a shock. I very much doubt this November statement will put the market on notice for a more aggressive stance in 2018. So the Fed statement is most likely to be a non-event, especially with these huge announcements on taxes and the Fed chief coming up right behind it.

09. True or false: a tax reform bill that has not yet passed is already built into the Dow Industrial Average price?

10. Not all of it. Don't forget we still have to see what the package is and how much of it is business taxes. Whether there's opposition matters, since they have razor-thin margins, and whether it's phased in or not. There are still a lot of parameters, so it's not a simple yes or no. But if there are a lot of business tax cuts, and I think half of it will be corporate taxes, and it looks like they have those Republicans on board, I think we get another push in the stock market. If there's a lot of opposition and it looks like it will fail, we'll see a setback. Not a huge one, but I don't think it would drive further gains, especially on the heels of a tax cut that looks good but is not going to be enacted.

11. Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School, always a pleasure. Jeremy, I look forward to chatting with you again. We'll certainly be watching this huge remaining week on CNBC. Thanks, Jeremy.

12. Thank you very much, Brian.