저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 중국 시장을 2009년 리먼 사태 같은 공포 국면으로 보고, 실적 대비 크게 하락한 중국 인터넷 기업들에 기회가 있다는 취지로 해석된다. [버리 트윗 해석] 버리는 미국 시장이 2009년 초와 같은 불확실성 정점 부근에 있으며, 중국이 미국에 너무 중요해 완전한 디커플링이 어렵다고 언급했다. 중국 인터넷 ETF는 고점 대비 약 47% 하락했다고 제시되었다. 알리바바는 올해 약 46%, 텐센트는 약 38% 하락한 것으로 언급되었다. [하락 배경] 제로 코로나 정책, 중국-대만 긴장, 부동산 위기, 부채 문제, 시위 등이 공포를 키운 요인으로 꼽혔다. [진행자 시각] 2009년 버리가 금융위기 때 큰 수익을 낸 사례를 들며, 현재도 공포 속 기회가 있다고 해석했다. 미중 제재 시 미국 인플레이션 부담이 커서 완전한 디커플링은 현재 어렵다는 논리를 폈다. [버리의 두 번째 트윗] 현금흐름을 창출하는 기업, 낮은 주가매출비율과 낮은 배수의 종목에 주목하라는 가치투자 관점을 언급했다. 알리바바·텐센트는 현금흐름이 양호하고 배수가 높지 않다고 평가되었다. [향후 전망] 진행자는 중국-대만 전쟁이 없다면 5~10년 장기적으로 중국 GDP 성장과 함께 알리바바·텐센트도 성장할 것이라고 전망했다. 다만 대만 전쟁이 발생하면 모든 전망이 무효가 된다고 리스크를 명시했다. [종합 결론] 진행자는 버리가 중국에 일부 긍정적이면서도 일부 부정적인 입장이라고 보았다. [리스크] 정책 리스크, 지정학 리스크(대만), 부동산·부채 문제, 시위 등이 주요 하방 요인이다.
다듬은 글
did Michael burry just come out and back China I'm not really sure kind of not really sort of we're gonna look at this tweet and find out what he really meant by this post because we already know China is having a 2009 American moment when the Lehman's brother all crashed down and all these Banks crashed this is what Michael Murray is seeing in the market right now so is this a perfect time to invest because remember back then in 2009 when everyone was running to the hills we're screwing around people who invested back in 2009 made huge returns if you bought the right companies so let's look at what Michael burry is seeing he basically had two tweets regarding the situation it might not be related but I think it's related so let's get into this video Let's Hear What Michael Brewery has to say about China Investing in the Chinese market the K web Alibaba tencent Neo all of these companies that are loved in China let's get into it right now but before we do like this video subscribe to my channel always providing you guys with so much new content so click that like button click that subscribe button right now so Michael burry just came out with this tweet kind of markets are having in America in early 2009 moment here in uncertainty are peaking or close to it but China is too important to America look what's happening with the Korean shares China's main ETF when it comes to internet companies down 47 for the year from his peaks of 101 all the way down to 25.74 decline look at Alibaba one of the top two stocks in China down 46 for this year 81 look at tencent the number one stock in the kind of Market 38 percent that's like Apple going down 38 or Amazon going down 40 50 it's infallible that you would think that these companies would go down that hard but that's the fear of uncertainty that's happening in the market because the zero covert policy because the China Taiwan War then we have this real estate crisis then we have a lot of debt people are having then we have protests all over so there's a lot of stuff happening in China so we think it's the same type of environment like it was back in 2009 during the Lehman Brothers crash and we know what happened during that crash when all the banks were running to the government for money because they were all crashing because all their cdos were going bad and remember Michael burry had this huge moment of profiting off that you saw the big short where it comes back and shows you how Michael burry did it so this is what he's saying he's saying he's seeing the same opportunities in the market right now due to all the fear and uncertainty and remember Michael burry made a killing during that time so is he saying the same thing you can make a killing during this time if you're buying Chinese companies and you understand the risk maybe maybe so and the thing about China is so much more important than Russia 20 times more so when you think about this America can't effectively fight or sanction China without spiting itself nearly as severely think about that right now like China cat America can't do the same thing as doing with Russia because they are their main trading partners when it comes to experts Imports like that's like 200 300 billion dollars going to waste of GDP plus they transport a lot back and forth products can you imagine it kind of goes through that with America that inflation would be crazy it'd be like 20 30 it'd be worse than turkey at this point man because they just can't be coupled from each other right now China and you are not at that point of decoupling at this moment maybe in the future but five ten years 15 years out I don't think that can happen right now so it's just undeniable that they would break up and just not come to a conclusion when it comes to this and then at the end just ask King James man he took a shot at LeBron James you remember when Daryl Mori came out against China he's back in the Hong Kong protest for free speech back in October and that directly heard the NBA's money because kind of didn't want to have America doing pre-season games or there weren't going to be televised so their deal with China was going south a little bit and then King James came out and said basically they don't know what's happening in China so I can't really comment on it and people were like whoa this is going against everything that you were spilling about backing the people blah blah blah so this is what Michael Brown is saying about King James about the market in China you can't seem them splitting right now because there's too much money in it so what do you think about Michael birdie actually saying this now do you agree do you disagree what are your thoughts on China and investing in the Chinese market on top of that on his next tweet he basically talks about investing in companies generating cash flow right now this is what I'm seeing in the market like Baba tencent they're generating this free cash flow the price to sales isn't High the multiples aren't High a small value investor buying stocks at three to five times free cash flow does not mean the investor is bolstering or backing the businesses so you're not back in the business if you're buying these companies right now at these cheap multiples the investor is mucking around with well punished companies so focusing on the financials and catalysts so you get a better deal on your mean stocks so you're just focusing on the company what is generating and you're going to see a catalyst with these companies Alibaba 10 cent I'm saying that you're gonna see a huge Catalyst going into the future 5-10 years out if the China Taiwan War does not happen if that does happen then all bets are off but if that doesn't happen five to ten years out China is going to be bigger the GDP is going to be bigger Alibaba and tencent or part of the Chinese economy the DDP so with China growing those companies are are inevitably gonna grow as well so think about it like that you're getting these cheap companies that cheap multiples that are going to grow into the future so in my opinion I think Michael burry is having a little backing of China but I think he's also against it too so I don't know what do you think about Michael Murray coming out and back in China or not back in China like this video and comment down below I want to hear your thoughts on China Investing in China and everything Michael burry just said
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