저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 채널 진행자는 금리 인상과 인플레이션으로 인해 주식시장 추가 하락(약 25%)이 올 수 있다는 약세 시각을 보이며, 현금 보유 또는 소규모 분할 매수 중 선택을 고민하고 있다. 주요 주장: 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)이 금리 인상으로 인한 '경제 허리케인'을 예측했고 실제 다우지수가 한 주간 1,000포인트 하락했다고 언급. 개인 포지션: 진행자 본인은 TD뱅크, EQB 등 금융주와 버크셔해서웨이를 소량 매수 중이며 큰 비중은 아니라고 밝힘. 추가 하락 시 더 많은 기업이 매도될 것으로 보고 대비 중. 금리 전망: 브리지워터는 긴축 시 주식·채권이 최대 25% 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 연준은 다음 회의에서 0.5~0.75%p 인상을 논의할 것으로 예상되며, 10년물 금리는 약 3.02%에서 2.03%대 등락을 언급. 인플레이션을 잡으려면 기준금리가 4~6%까지 올라야 할 수도 있다고 주장. 헤지펀드 동향: 레이 달리오 및 그 CFO가 현금을 쌓고 있고, S&P500 대비 순매도 포지션이 사상 최고인 1,070억 달러 수준이라고 언급. 진행자는 시장 비관이 극단적일 때 반대로 반등하는 경우가 많다고 덧붙임. 마이클 버리: 대부분 주식을 매도하고 게임스톱(GME)만 보유했으며, 트위터를 통해 약세 베팅을 계속 주장한다고 소개. 재정정책 리스크: 바이든 정부의 학자금 대출 탕감 및 인프라/반도체 법안이 총 약 2조 달러 규모의 유동성을 공급해 인플레이션을 더 자극할 수 있다는 우려 제기. 리스크: 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁 격화, 에너지 가격 상승, 인플레이션 장기화, 경기침체 심화. 출연자 전망: 전체적으로 약세(단기 추가 하락 가능성) 우위이나, 진행자는 헤지펀드 과매도 국면에서 반등 가능성도 열어둠. 결론 재확인: 진행자는 확신이 낮은 상태로 현금 보유와 저가 분할매수 사이에서 관망 중이며, 시청자 의견을 묻는 것으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome back to just invest today in today's video we're talking about jamie dimon talking about ray dalio we're talking about michael bury all predicting crashes remember that jamie dimon jp morgan's actual ceo predicted this hurricane in the past two months ago so he said there's gonna be an economic hurricane and that's all coming to fruition so let's get into it in this video while we're talking about the potential for a market crash and what's going on in the economy what's going on in the market and how that's affecting stock prices today so let's get into it guys please like this video and subscribe to my channel i'm always providing you guys with so much new content so click that like button click that subscribe button right now so let's start by talking about jp morgan's ceo talking about the hurricane and he kind of called this hiking the interest rates is going to cause people just to sell off stocks and you see that the dow fell a thousand points just this past week and this is all because what the fed was saying during the jackson hole um summit it's a hurricane it's we right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know and remember he can kind of see what's happening in the market right now like he is all about financially making sure his bank is very stable so he's gonna know what to do what not to do how people are spending their money so he's kind of seeing firsthand what is happening in the economy this is what he was predicting june 1st everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and so is it gonna be sandy or is it gonna be andrew is gonna be light or is it gonna be kind of hard on us and when i think about this i'm thinking about should you be in cash should you like just buy companies right down as they sell off like what should you do as investors and for me particularly i've been buying more companies like i've been buying like td bank i've been buying eqb i've been buying a lot of these companies that google even have been dabbling into more berkshire but i haven't got into a big position it's a light position right now it's nothing so those are the stocks that i'm kind of buying and that's how i'm thinking about this market right now is just preparing myself as more companies will sell off in this and you have to remember people don't know what's going to happen in europe because the ukraine and russia war is actually kind of getting more intense right now things are starting to heat up as like the war kind of keeps going on and on as people don't know what's gonna happen with gas prices what's gonna happen with inflation and you have to realize that the fed has to be hard on inflation right now that's what it's bread and butter is gonna do because it's worrying about the general population and how it's affecting the average person and remember the fed is all about kind of getting the minds at ease when it comes to the average person so people are feeling the effects of inflation and they're going to do the best interests of the people so what do you think they're going to do they're going to raise rates as they already raise the rates like 0.3 or something like that as it's like 3 percent the year treasury yields right now and that's nothing people were predicting this and they still sold off stocks so we don't know if they're gonna ease on what's gonna go on into the future if they see inflation keep going up and up man the market is just gonna sell off even more like this was nothing this was literally nothing compared to what's gonna happen in the future as the fed keeps raising rates then we go to bridgewater bridgewater expects up to 25 percent drop in stocks bonds on fed tightening remember the fed didn't even do that much when you really think about it and everyone knew what the fed was going to do and still it didn't even do that much at the next fed meeting officials would likely debate whether interest rates should be raised by 0.5 or 0.75 percentage points that's all the 10-year yield inched up 2.034 from thursday's 3.023 percent like that's all the fed rate is doing and this is what's happening in the market can you imagine if the fed went up to four percent five percent six percent i think that's what they're really gonna need to do to stop inflation because inflation's at like 12 13 people are actually seeing more than that right now in the real economy when you're buying food when you're actually seeing energy prices that's going to have a huge effect on prices and he's saying there's a 25 more drop in stocks ray dalio and his chief financial officer you can see why hedge funds are sitting on more cash why hedge funds are actually shorting more hedge funds are shorting more than ever and you can kind of see the dynamics as the retail investors are actually putting more money and buying more stocks as the hedge fund starts shorting more the s p 500 as you're seeing what the fed is going to do and that's what they're predicting hedge funds are sitting on a record level of bearish best on the stock market and this is what's happening you can kind of see the dynamics right now hedge funds are getting increasingly skeptical about this big rally that broke out in the middle of the bear market because you have to remember the s p run up a crazy amount like 17 which is amazing net short positions against the s p 500 features by hedge funds have reached a record 107 billion this week just this week man 107 billion dollars so what do you think hedge funds are having in their mind people are sitting on the cash they're not putting money into these cheap stocks or cheap stocks if you think they are cheap so what do you think is going to happen in the market people are going to think the market is going to crash so man are they putting that in the sphere to make the market crash who knows how the market is going to react to this but in my opinion as soon as you think the market is going to go extremely bearish usually it does the opposite so maybe we could see another run who knows but man there's a lot of interesting things happening in the market right now we also see someone like michael berry again he just continues this onslaught on these bearish bets he's seen him sell off all his stocks except for geo but he continues on twitter to make these bearish bearish bets and he's expecting more of a crash than anyone else other than jamie diamond of ray dalio doesn't even matter he is more bearish than those guys the recent spending bills including the student loan forgiveness remember this is increasing inflation he's actually putting more money in the market and people don't realize what they're doing when they're doing the student loan forgiveness like joe biden is literally putting more money into the system increasing inflation people are gonna have more money to spend or they're gonna think they have more money to spend so this is gonna increase uh increase what people are proceeding to have now approaching 2 trillion this year we have an emergence of fiscal putt not just for the covet anymore because remember what he did with coal but he put so much money into the system and will be as good for america's economy as sugar for babies so this loan forgiveness is just giving more sugar for babies the whole cold stimulus that was more sugar also he's doing the infrastructure bill when it comes to semiconductors that's just stimulating more money into the system there's a lot joe biden's doing just to stimulate the system how do you think that's going to turn out is that going to cause a bigger bigger crash not just to cope with stimulus not just his own forgiveness not just the infrastructure bill so you can see how people are just so bearish on the economy any rally is just getting met with man this market is going to crash again these are just bear market rallies they're not sustainable they're not real what are you guys doing during this bear market man this recession is hitting hard inflation's at all-time high you see the fed raising rates are you holding on to cash are you actually buying more stocks are you just waiting to see what happens how are you reacting to all this news guys can you please like this video and subscribe to my channel peace
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