저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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중국 지방정부 채권 발행 및 PBOC 유동성 도구 등 유동성 확대 기대를 언급. 나스닥 급등과 달러·10년물 금리 동반 돌파는 통상 부정적 신호라 주의 필요. 테슬라는 컨플루언스 상단 돌파 가능성으로 강세 전망, 엔비디아 실적 결과에 따라 방향 결정될 것이라 봄. AMD가 엔비디아 대리 플레이로 저렴한 옵션 대안이라 언급. 숏 커버링 랠리 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
hey guys Mike here so oh boy what a day in the market you got Tesla and Nvidia blowing up shorts running for the door and everything but both of them did have catalysts and I'll talk about those but I think there was something you know much more behind the curtain which I'll get your opinion on see what you think and stuff uh also we had two things which I told to watch out for over the weekend that was actually absolutely going off this morning yet the market was basically ignoring it okay and so that's kind of suspicious in a way but maybe we're just getting back on track to something else we'll have to see but also you know some news coming out of China real quick before we get into all that obviously they cut a another long raid but they kept the five year the same and they didn't cut the rates as much as people thought they would okay something else they're doing here is a key word in here China local governments to sell 206 billion dollars of financing debt and it says the pboc which is the Bank of China to set up emergency liquidity tool okay and so liquidity being the key word Beijing so considering planning to sell special local bonds and try to Stave off the slung of the economy and what's going on in the real estate market which has the whole world kind of sitting back taking a seat but what's shocking about it is and maybe this is why you're seeing this you start seeing anticipating liquidity coming back in is you got more Bulls than bears in and leverage China best you can see right there there's a whole lot more people going these 3x and leverage bull ETFs then going into the Bayer ETFs right now and so we'll see if that bit pays off one but again liquidity drives markets you know more than anything else as far as moving them up or down and so we'll see if they're able to do or not again I make no predictions because it's China and you know how they are I mean again they didn't cut the raises much people thought they would but we'll see if they continue to set up things try to Stave off what's happening over there same way the FED did over here when it comes to the regional Banks and you saw how the market reacted to that and guys before we continue if you're getting anything out of this please hit that thumbs up down there I really appreciate it and if you like the material here in the videos think about subscribing and that leads us into the markets and we were talking about this in the Discord this morning and what was crazy is the NASDAQ or the queues is just you know going parabolic in the morning time but there was two other things which usually does not bode well for the market also breaking out and that was the 10-year Treasury and the dollar and if you look right here you can see what I'm talking about it already busted out you see it started moving much higher this morning but again the market was like yeah whatever we just don't care of course you know this big move up ahead in June July's when it was ignoring the yields all together and stuff but yeah I mean you can see right there I mean it it's already broken out above that I'm looking for a retest of the trend line uh to say this is an official breakout of course for it continues to move higher but you know also keep in mind again it's like a stock when it gets over bought you're going to see a pullback okay and the dollar same thing end up busting out this morning it's going higher and I thought I was going to continue to go higher but this one ended up rolling over of course it's almost an overbought territory as well as you can see busted out and then rolled right back over and the cues just continued to Roar and Tech in general just continue uh to absolutely take off and stuff and when you look at the cues here I mean you can see it's in this downward Channel obviously what happened now early it was over sold so it got this bounce right here is this going to continue we'll have to see until you get above that trend line and then the descending trend line on top of that you know all this doesn't mean anything okay let's be very clear about that it's about 1.2 percent of that one less than percent to the other trend line of course so those will activate as a resistance moving up and you can see on time let's say trend line is the one that's been there since 2023 we were bouncing up on the move so that would be resistance now if it breaks above that breaks above out of this channel right here that would be super bullish if you can see it's gonna have resistance again this will all depend on nvidia's earnings and what you know how they perceive uh Jerome pound stuff now you can see it was pretty much a three-party show here you had Tech moving up as far as the biggest sector actually consumer discretionary Communications everything else is either blah or red for the day and when you come over here's Tesla again if you didn't see the video I put out I think it was Sunday or Friday I'll link both of them at the end here as you can see we talked about this Confluence on a lot of Confluence coming in this area right and all it is when somebody confluences a lot of things happening at one time that is actually considered bullish or at least a place that could absolutely see a balance okay and you're sitting there in the RSI you're oversold your Center coming down close to the golden pocket you're already below the 50 Fibonacci level you're sitting here with actually a trend line which is bounced off of multiple times you got a big support area coming up and this is not going to hit on the dime right it's going to be a range that it's in it was only like 1.87 away from all of that happening and with all that's happening it's just one of those things you got to play good levels right I mean I bought a call Friday when we closed I closed it out today I was just happy with that but I was I was waiting to see and I bought it for September 8th actually because I was gonna do a one day trade on it but I said you know what I'm gonna sell room in case this this moves down does move down that area just below it right but it just makes sense for a bounce now it just means it's going to continue up for you know a couple days for a week none of that means anything especially in this market now this trend line actually added on which intersects with that to give it more Confluence which is the trend line coming all the way down right so you know it just there's a lot of stuff going on in that area and of course one thing I didn't expect which we got was someone of a catalyst when it says hey look at this an upgrade right beard analyst comes out they give it a 300 price Target you got some talk about a cyber truck like we've never heard of that before right and then of course you help put more fuel in the fire and you can guarantee people were shorting this and that's why you see such a big move up okay and Tesla and Nvidia then you got a video I mean just man look at this move I mean enormous move up today I was over nine percent last time I looked and so you know and of course that candle is a really small compared to the other one right so this has done this amazing run up over the last basically seven trading days and look at this like 16 for a big Mega cap stock and when you look at the daily right here you can see it was just there was no pullback in it whatsoever it just kept going up and up and up and up and up I mean just perfectly and so that is shorts covering all the way up right there a lot of calls coming in pushing it market makers are buying in and you can see this is that same move from the 14th to the day I mean that that is a massive massive move and of course it's catalyst is basically the same thing where you got just boat modes of Institutions raising price targets over 500 okay so that never hurts and I will say I don't know how you feel about it I want to get your opinion but this big move up coming into earnings like I don't know one of two things that's happening to me you either get going to get set up for one of the biggest rug pools you've ever seen or two maybe they're even setting it up to where they report earnings there's nothing wrong with earnings and the stock doesn't move right and what would that do for market makers they'll kill premiums on both sides don't matter if you bought calls or puts in the premiums are going to go output if the stock just doesn't move enough in each direction right because and then they'll say well it was already priced in it's already priced in we moved it up right and then again third option is they report earnings the market loves it and it just shoots over 500 but when you just look at this huge move coming into earnings which is Wednesday and we'll see if we do any sell-off or not uh it just seems to me in those two scenarios make a lot of sense but it would be not funny but it would be so interesting let's see Nvidia if you hit earnings that guidance was good and the stock just doesn't move the next day right and so let me know what you think about and what you think they're trying to set this up for and again a lot of this has nothing to do with if you know if a video could like I said beat top bottom line and guidance is good and everything else and the Stock's still not move right I mean that can happen or it sells off I mean either way now look what I tell you about what Nvidia would do for the other semi conductors right you got AMD right three percent move up on the day again once it bounce off 102 and video goes nuts so does AMD right lifts all boats you see right here here's all the semiconductors doesn't matter which one they are no matter what kind of chips they have all of them go green all right especially when on the granddaddy or the daddy of them all is up you know eight percent at that time so just keep that in mind now when you're looking at something here you know nvidia's options or through the roof I mean they're so expensive right so for those who are gamblers I told our members you know when you look on here you can look for what they call a sympathy play where the options are way cheaper if you just love to play earnings and stuff and so you know when I pull up all of these together you can kind of see on here that AMD and Marvel really kind of mirror Nvidia the best when it comes to the moves okay problem is Marvel they're reporting this week and so their IV is already through the roof and AMD has already reported and had a shoe sell-off so to me if you're going to play a simple play you just want it just have to do it to scratch an itch or something you know it will be AMD let me know in the comments which one you think uh would be better off but when I look at that it seems like AMD mirrors it a lot better you're not gonna get the same percentage move no way but at least you know you're not gonna get IB crush with AMD and the options are way cheaper okay and so you know just let me know this thing in the comments and look at meta here and you can see if we pull this up the volume profile Friday it started to get the bounds they continue that bounce today off all that support right there as you can see again on the hourly on the day we were not oversold we go to the iron lead obviously got way oversold Friday that's where the bounce actually started at and so it's just a continuation into the day and stuff so just keep that in mind filled that Gap and everything we'll see if this one keeps going or not I mean have some room up if the market continues to want to move up again this one is set up if they want to push this one down again it can it can drop quite a bit and you might have noticed any stock that had anything to do with cyber security or some kind of software defense type systems we're all up today and it's because it's power also actually crushed earnings and they went up 15 so they drug all these stocks data dogs no palantiring crowd up with them that's what caused that so again that's those type Symphony type plays if you're looking to do those kind of things in the future now earnings tomorrow you have a boatload of retailers Macy's and Lowe's dicks BJ's we'll have a house Builder and Toll Brothers and then we're going to have Urban Outfitters as well and then you got of course Lazy Boy too now when it comes to economic data one thing to look at is the Richmond fit manufacturing data and then also Services index people waiting to look at that right there now is that data going to move markets one thing I've noticed is if it's positive they'll use it to fuel the market up if it's negative they just push to the side right but I'll be paying attention more to the services uh information I will uh the manufacturer because the services side is what they've had a problem actually slowing down so we'll see if that comes in hot or not I know one thing I noticed though too is it maybe it's just me or whatever and I read about this last week where a lot of Institutions and hedge fund managers were closing out shorts last week they didn't want to carry them into this week and so when they closed outwards I mean that means they're buying the stock right that's why it's so like Friday this late kind of rally coming up and then today you could tell and I mean no doubt in Tesla and Nvidia shorts for coverage they love to short those two stocks and I'm sure they make a lot of money doing it I would never touch either one of those with a short but you know it's just not my thing though so that's just me but you could definitely tell especially video and it's just going straight up and shorts are just covering covering covering so uh you know that's one thing that fuels these rallies when you get these sell-offs that's why you get these violent moves up and a lot of stocks and we'll see if it actually spreads out because it wasn't very broad-based honestly I mean I'll show you the ones that really were moved and everything was kind of like yeah you know so it wasn't very broad but we'll see if that continues more into tomorrow or the the market really just want to wait and see what Nvidia has to say let me know what you think is going to happen there as well so anyway hope you guys guys I might have it hit that like And subscribe button if you did really appreciate it and I will see you guys tomorrow thank you
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