저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 중국 비중 확대 우려에도 중국은 여전히 최선호이며, 신흥시장은 밸류에이션이 싸고 이익 성장도 양호하다는 낙관론. 중국 비중: MSCI EM 내 중국 비중은 약 27%(인터뷰 시점 26%)이며, 현 시장 가격 기준 최대 40%까지 갈 수 있어 과도하다고 봄. 다만 단기간이 아니라 수년에 걸쳐 진행될 것이며, 인도·브라질 성장으로 균형이 맞춰질 수 있다고 봄. 중국 리스크: 높은 레버리지에도 주요 은행이 국유라 대형 위기는 막을 수 있으며, 일부 부실·파산은 정부가 교훈 차원에서 허용할 것이라고 봄. 미국도 레버리지가 높다고 지적. 통화정책: 미 연준 금리와 신흥시장 지수 간 상관관계는 없다고 보고 과대평가되어 있다고 주장. 브라질 기준금리 14%처럼 국가별로 정책이 엇갈리는 것이 정상. 밸류에이션: MSCI 신흥국 선행 PER은 세계지수 대비 약 20% 할인, 과거 5년 평균 하회. 신흥국 평균 이익성장률 4%, 중국·인도는 6~7%. 다만 중국 인터넷 기업 비중 확대로 PER 구조가 바뀐 점은 주의 필요. 기술주: 2000년과 달리 이익이 실제로 늘고 있어 높은 PER 정당화 가능, 미국 대비 신흥국 기술주가 저렴하다고 봄. 수익률곡선·원자재: 신흥국 상당수가 장단기 금리차 역전 상태지만 주식시장은 무시 중. 장기적으로 주식이 유리하다는 입장. 원자재 수입은 금액 기준으로 줄어 보이나 물량은 꾸준히 증가 중이라고 봄. 유가 하락은 가스 유통사처럼 업종에 따라 이익이 될 수도 있음. 아프리카·아르헨티나: 아프리카는 불안하다는 인식과 달리 안정국이 많고 성장 여지가 큼, 최선호는 남아공과 나이지리아. 아르헨티나는 MSCI 편입 시 프론티어 내 대형주이나 신흥국 지수에선 소형주가 되어 실익이 제한적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
so a lot of people have looked at this and said look it's only a tiny proportion of the msci EM index it's symbolic it is important but China in terms of dollar denominated stocks or foreign currency denominated stocks is 27% of the index at what point does China get too much I think it could get too much very soon because if you calculate where it could be based on the current market oration could be up to 40% of the index now when you have that kind of waiting in the index it's a little bit too much because you're ignoring so many other countries and so then is the idea as an investor to sort of be aware of that and in as much as you're able not to Benchmark versus I mean does this does this make the msci Emerging Markets index less useful as a benchmark oh no it's still useful because you have all these ETFs that need to have a benchmark and it's now uh 26% of the waiting which is okay I'm just saying that over time and by the way this is not going to happen overnight it's going to take a number of years now the good news is that hopefully India and these other markets Brazil will grow so that their waiting will begin to balance out where China is but it remains to be seen you said in recent days that China Still Remains your top pick and if we we look around there's still the voice is concerned about some kind of debt event in China the real estate sector you can take your pick do you think investors are are confused when they look at the risks in China and actually the risks are not the the sort of the restrictions that China puts on as a control economy but actually the liberalization and calibrating that wrong that's right I think a lot of people think that you know if they look at it Through The Eyes of a western investor from us or Europe it looks pretty bad because the leverage in many cases is very high but by the way not higher than the US Leverage if you look at the US economy it's quite leverag as well uh but the difference is that it's a planned economy the major banks are owned by the government so they can mitigate any big problem now in the meantime they're going to be bankruptcies they're going to be problems along the way and the government will allow that because they want to teach lessons to those people who have gone too far in any particular direction but you're not going to see a big big crisis I don't see that they can contain the pain that does arise exactly because as I said the major Banks it's as if uh City Bank Bank of America and all these other banks in America were owned by the government and that's the case in China so they can mitigate and take measures to prevent bankruptcies you know one of the things that we've seen in terms of the the rally from Emerging Markets is that if you look at the monetary policy that we're seeing from from various em countries they're going in all sorts of different directions some at this moment despite the fact that we've got tightening policy from the FED some are also tightening some are actually loosening do you think we overestimate the importance of us monetary policy on Emerging Markets now and can it remain so throughout this period of tiing from the United States I think it's been very overestimated and if you look at the years three years before January of last year Emery markets were underperforming and everybody said oh it's because the FED is going to raise rates and everybody's afraid but if you look at the correlation between the Fed rate and the emergy market index there's no correlation sometimes the Fed rate goes up and the market goes up so I think uh people have got to focus on different things and by the way it's very interesting to note you take Brazil now interest rates 14% for companies going down while the FED raises so you're going to see these discrepancies in the different markets that's in the US as well exactly um I want to ask you about valuations as well because we have seen uh despite the fed rais and great that the msci emerging market index has continued to go higher and I have a chart here on the Bloomberg that's looking at the forward priced earnings ratio of the msci Emerging Markets as a ratio to the msci world index uh the blue line here is the average so we're below the average over the past 5 years does that mean that we're seeing some attractive valuations there definitely we're uh roughly about 20% cheaper if you look at PE Price to Book earnings growth by the way is better in the Emerging Markets because Emerging Markets on the average are growing at 4% places like China and India are growing at 6 7% so uh definitely the valuations are good but you got to be careful there because a lot of these valuations in China now have changed in the sense that the tech companies the internet companies have now taken a much larger share of the market and these companies tend to have higher PE ratios so they're inflating the overall number per exactly but still even with that it's lower overall well I wanted to ask you about tech in particular because we have seen a little bit of a trend of investors looking at the so-called Fang stocks here in the US comparing them with uh Tech in the emerging markets and that's one of the reasons why we're seeing that flow uh into them do you think that can be sustained and do you think that the valuations of those tech stocks specific Al are still attractive uh they're still attractive because unlike what we had in 2000 these companies are really making money and their earnings are increasing so you can justify going out better price earnings ratios but I think uh uh many of these companies are being attractive to us investors and European investors because they're often cheaper than the same type of company in the US or in Europe sure I was looking at a chart earlier this week as well and it looks at Emerging Market stock markets it includes Russia China Mexico Greece is actually in there as well um and they are all markets where you have inverted yield curves and if we were talking about a developed Market Nation we look at that and we'd go whoa time time to get panicked but in this case the stock market just appears to ignore it what's going on there and why should we or should we not be worried well I think it's because people are ignoring these factors and are saying look I I'm going to escape the currency uh risk I'm going to escape the interest rate risk by going into equities because as you know equities always adjust to the inflation and to what's happening in the rest of the economy so the equity markets are seen as a relative Safe Haven other assets but is that is that a risky attitude to have at some point if you look long term you're had I mean of course volatility from year to year but if you look longterm equities were the place to be anywhere in the world whether it be the US Emerging Markets or anywhere else how how worried are you by what we're seeing in the oil markets now we had an analyst on programming earlier on in the show saying um this is the most bearish concern that they'd seen sentiment for 20 to 30 years I mean that kind of feeds into the Commodities the EM story very closely too are you concerned no I the reason why I'm not concerned is because uh of course we're not going to rush into commodity companies now although we do hold some but you must remember that if you look at the statistics it looks like China is reducing Imports of iron or reducing Imports of oil but people forget that's based on the value the price has gone down if you look at the volumes they continue to go up in a steady way oil imports iron or Imports okay 1% a year maybe half a percent a year that sort of thing but it no question that these countries are increasing their consumption of Commodities so there's a misalignment with perception as far as demand is concerned out there exactly is a misconception and they they're looking at the value of imports and they're not looking at the real uh volume but at the same time it might not be negative a negative indicator about these emerging economies but it might be a negative indicator for the profitability of the companies in those economies right because even if you're producing in more of it or importing more of it if the cost is lower it's going to be tougher for those companies of course if you're a minor you may be running into problems which they have already a lot of that is over but then be careful because we were just talking to a a gas distributor in China lower gas prices is great for them because they're Distributing they're buying gas import buying from importers and they're Distributing it to the retail consumers so it depends on what side of the fence you and are they able to hold the line in terms of retail prices then they raise retail prices as you go forward because distribution is getting better so they can reach a larger audience and raise prices generally speaking you're having these conversations all over the Emerging Markets where do you think the greatest misalignment is if we keep China out of it in terms of perception of what's going on in terms of the economy in terms of the politics in terms of the reform progress that we're seeing I think a big misperception about Africa right because countries in Africa are growing at a very fast pace admittedly from a low base and a lot of people think about African countries as really being unstable Etc but the reality is that there are a lot of stable African countries and there's lots of opportunities in these countries because they're just at this take off stage just taking off two three years ago we were in Davos there was all this excit ment about particularly countries like Nigeria and I think there's also perception that this is an oil producer and therefore given what we've seen in the oil pric it's you know there must be in dire straights at this moment but the econom is far broader than that and actually the stock market is far broader exactly what's your favorite economy then in in in Africa in Africa I would have to say both South Africa and Nigeria despite all the political even with the politics wow because the consumer markets are doing very well I I have to sneak in a quick last question about Argentina because we talked about China's inclusion in msci Argentina though was left out there has been enormous enormous investor enthusiasm for Argentina does this do anything to put even a small dent in that I it does in the sense that you know the msci and other uh index providers are looking at Argentina and thinking of putting them in their indices but you got to be careful here because right now they're a big fish in a small pond in the frontier markets index they go into the global Emerging Markets index they're very small fish in a big pond so this is a uh can be a disadvantage you know a lot of people want The Prestige of being in the EM index but the reality is that it may not help them very much what you wish for
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