저자: BillGross · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 중앙은행의 양적완화 지속으로 채권·주식 모두 높은 가격을 유지하지만, 밸류에이션이 과도해 향후 저수익 환경이 예상되며 현금 비중을 높게 유지하고 있다. 중앙은행 유동성: 연준은 대차대조표를 축소했으나 일본은행(BOJ)과 유럽중앙은행(ECB)이 매월 각 600억 달러 수준으로 양적완화를 이어가며 연간 약 1조 달러가 시스템에 공급되고 있다고 진단. 유동성과 자산가격: 수익률이 마이너스 수준인 자금이 안전자산(채권)과 고평가된 주식으로 몰리고 있으며, 양적완화가 지속되는 한 신용스프레드 축소·낮은 금리·높은 PER이 유지될 것으로 봄. 다만 QE가 철회되는 시점과 속도가 핵심 변수. 채권 시장: 미국 국채는 주요 선진국 채권 중 가장 매력적이나 여전히 고평가·저금리로 판단. 10년물 국채는 독일 분트 대비 약 190bp, 일본 국채 대비 높은 수익률을 보이지만 가격 측면에서는 과대평가. 투자자들은 보유 비중에 신중해야 한다고 조언. 대안 투자: 순자산가치(NAV) 대비 5~10% 할인된 레버리지 폐쇄형 펀드가 매력적이며, 면세채권 약 5~6%, 회사채 약 8~10% 수익률 제시. 다만 저변동성에는 저수익이 수반된다는 점을 투자자에게 설명해야 한다고 강조. 현금 및 포지션: 본인 펀드(언컨스트레인드)는 듀레이션을 마이너스 1~2년으로 두어 현금 수준 혹은 그 이하의 수익을 감수하는 방어적 포지션을 취하고 있음. 리스크 회피 수준은 2008년 리먼 사태 직전 이후 가장 높다고 언급. 연준 인선: 옐런 현 의장은 강경한 리더십을 가진 것으로 평가. 굿프렌드·쿼를 등 신규 이사 후보의 정책 성향은 지켜봐야 한다고 언급. 연준이 과거 규제 실패(리먼 이전)를 반복하지 않아야 하며, 금리 상승 시 레버리지 경제에서 신용 부담이 커져 또 다른 경기침체 위험이 있다고 경고. 리스크 요인: 신용 가격 상승 → 부채 상환 능력 약화 → 기업 부도·포지션 청산 → 시장 급변동 가능성을 주요 위험으로 제시. 출연자 전망: 단기 주식시장은 중앙은행 유동성에 의해 지지되나 장기적으로는 저수익 및 자산가격 조정 위험이 있다고 보는 신중한 입장.
다듬은 글
begin with this question how do you explain to yourself because you have to do it a world in which the S&P 500 started the day 11 points off of its all-time record high uh and which is trading at almost 19 times forward earnings high yield spreads at 370 basis points but at the same time you have the 10e treasury again starting the day at 215 and the Yen having rallied 65% year to dat you these Haven TR trades playing out strongly yet risk trades also playing out strongly well and you mentioned several assets there you're talking about bonds you're talking about stocks talking about the world the investing world that you have to confront every day yes and and I uh if there's a commonality to it or a common factor I would say it's the the expansion of credit and the credit that's been generated by central banks uh you know the FED has been out of it in terms of building its balance sheet but they uh the the boj and the ECB have been uh moving along at the same Pace at 60 billion a month a total of2 and uh one trillion a year and so money is being pumped out into the system and money uh that is uh yielding less than nothing in many cases seeks a Haven not only in bonds that that are under yielding but in stocks that are overpriced so is that to say this addition if you will of liquidity will help to continue supporting risk asset prices so long as the boj and the Boe excuse me well not more importantly the ECB are quantitative easing well I think so that's been the game plan and it worked wonderfully and has worked not criticizing uh you know basically the worked wonderfully for investors yeah the global economy as well that it was pulled out of the Great Recession that which could have turned into a great depression and so you know not criticizing the policy but uh it has to continue in my opinion in order for credit spreads to be tight in order for yields to remain low and in order for stocks to have such high pees because the the the fundamental basis for it is the Central Bank policy that that keeps creating additional credit so it stays it continues until that the QE punch pull gets pulled away I think so okay and the question becomes how quickly the punch bolt uh is taken away and and or whether it's a policy move or something precipitated by the private sector in in revolt against low interest rates uh they they move somewhere else you know they oldow money in a mattress an individual can do that uh in Germany can put their Euros in a mattress but a but an institution can't and but gradually at the margin the system itself May uh de generate simply because the returns are unattractive and it and they prefer to put it in their mattress so they they may not be the same Bond vigilantes of old but they'll be oh for sure uh yeah yeah the Bond vigilantes of old are basically index oriented and so they must maintain certain high levels of duration even when yields are unattractive individuals um and they're a smaller part uh at the margin but individuals can play a different game and simply avoid themselves of of uh Hearts so you sound a little bit hopeful do you think this buyer strike if you will is going to actually happen well uh slowly and and that's the problem for an investor because uh as it happens slowly and if you void your hand so to speak of uh of a certain suit U or if you avoid your hand of of risk assets then you you you accept much lower returns and and there are those investors even individuals that require think they require higher returns and so voiding is is uh perhaps reasonable and common sensical but not necessarily practical in this type of environment well you're practicing some of that a little bit yourself are you not you told me earlier this morning that your level of risk aversion has been higher only once before in the leadup to the Leman Brothers bankruptcy right so I presume that your positioning if you will reflects some of that at the same time though timing is difficult to predict how do you balance the caution with the need to earn some return what do you own well you you own obviously what what you think are the most attractive and least overvalued assets I you know I would suggest uh as we do that there are uh at attractions in closed in funds that sell at discounts uh 5 to 10% net asset value discounts that are levered to some extent off of that cheap leverage and yield 5 6% in the imunity market and 8 9 10% in the corporate Market um so you go there and and you uh basically tell your investors that it's a changed world that returns are going to be lower and that if you want uh to sleep at night and to to accept uh the market as it is that low volatility requires low return what about treasuries what about cash well I think treasuries are the most attractive of the developed Market uh bonds and in comparison to the 10year Bund for instance at 25 basis points um what I'll add that quickly 190 basis points and relative to a 10-year jgb that one's easy because they yield 10 um you know that's 20 five basis points and so you know they're more attractive on a yield basis but uh still I I would suggest that they're overvalued price-wise and under yielding um and investors should be cautious in terms of how much they want to own relative to uh relative to cash do you have a cash position oh I have a large cash position how large oh I I I put it in in a durational context uh so the unconstrained fund which has a zero duration Benchmark um you know has a negative 1 to twoyear duration which which means that uh it's accepting uh a cash-like and in some cases a lower than cash-like return uh by its positions H bill when we spoke at the when we last spoke it was at the milen global conference in Los Angeles uh last month right you told me that you'd give yourself an A minus for performance in the you know two and a half years one and a half years excuse me it's been since running the uh the Janice on constrain two and a half two and a half two and a half I'm losing track of time two and a half years September of 14 and a C+ for fundraising so what I want to know is how do you turn the C+ into a minus or better well uh you continue to promote to to to talk to viewers on on Bloomberg to express your uh philosophy and concern and to to let them know that you're still active and in the game I I suppose do you need to travel more probably um that that's something that uh I haven't done but I I I tend to generate my communication through writing investment outlooks and through TV and so on but yet traveling would would help and Janice has just completed its merger with Henderson oh yes uh will that help I think so uh you know I think uh Henderson uh can can join in in terms of uh asset growth and the asset growth of the unconstrained fund while not you know pinco like in terms of numbers but you know it's positive every day it's a two or three million every day and uh yeah it's a smaller world it's a small world after all like in Disneyland uh but uh you know it's an enjoyable one and as long as uh investors are increasingly putting money in uh I'm a happy camper uh Bill a question to you about the FED there are no puffs of white smoke yet from the White House but it does look like we knew know who the next two nominees to the FED board are going to be um Marvin goodfriend and Randle qurl uh how do you think fed policy will be different if they were to be nominated approved and sit on the FED board well we'll we'll have to we'll have to it's easy we'll have to see but but but I think uh Janet Yellen despite her demeanor you know as a very tough-minded uh chair woman um and not uh necessarily any tougher than than banki maybe a little less tough than uh vulker but but she's tough and she dominates and so I I think she she has a team she listens but I think she guides and directs do you think they'll be inclined to allow leverage to rebuild in the financial system something you've warned against I hope not uh and that comes from the regulatory side of the FED one in which they failed you know pre- Layman uh you know to criticize Alan Greenspan he was never a regulator he was always a an interest rate um director uh and so you know regulation has become more and more important the trend seems to be Shifting the other way but you know I think ultimately credit and credit extension um is at risk uh or or risks another recession if only because if the price of credit rises in a levered world then uh the cover or the ability to Service uh becomes at risk and companies start to default and uh positions start to be liquidated and markets move uh the way they shouldn't move something
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