저자: BillGross · 외국인
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2017년 6월 2일 고용지표 발표 후 Bill Gross는 고용 증가세 둔화를 구조적 성숙 현상으로 보고, 실물경제는 2% 안팎 성장에 그칠 것이라고 판단함. 고용·연준 전망: 고용 둔화는 시장 예상보다 약하지만 예상 가능한 흐름이라고 봄. 6월 연준(옐런) 금리 인상에 대해서는 큰 영향이 없을 것이며, 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추거나 대차대조표 축소를 늦추는 것은 실수라고 주장함. 대차대조표·장기금리: 연준 대차대조표 축소는 천천히 진행될 것으로 보며, 장기 국채(5~30년) 기간 프리미엄은 상승할 것이라고 봄. 다만 75bp 전체가 되돌아가지는 않고 단기적으로 더 높아질 것이라고 언급. 금리·달러: 10년물 금리 2.18%, 30년물 하락 등 금리 하락을 언급하며 시장 환경이 우호적이라고 평가. 인플레이션 둔화로 옐런이 중립금리를 낮게 유지할 여지가 있다고 봄. 지정학·파리협정: 미국의 파리협정 탈퇴는 장기 현금흐름 책임 증가로 주식에 부정적이라고 주장. 포트폴리오 전략(Janus Henderson): 변동성(VIX 10 미만)이 역사적으로 낮아 위험 프리미엄이 낮은 주식·장기채·하이일드를 매수하는 것은 주의가 필요하다고 경고. 위험 프리미엄이 높은 시장으로 이동해야 한다는 입장. ※ 대상 자산 중 개별 가격 목표는 명시되지 않음. 장기 금리 상승(기간 프리미엄 상승) 전망은 단기적 방향으로 해석.
다듬은 글
Bill, I haven't done the three-month moving average of jobs, but we're not getting the jobs growth we got 10 years ago. Is that a surprise? No, I don't think so. Uh certainly not at the levels of unemployment that we're at now. Uh not only in terms of U3, but uh U6. I think as an economy matures and and this recovery is eight, nine close to 10 years in the making, uh you know, job growth comes down.
So I I think it's to be expected. It's a weaker number than the market expected today, but nonetheless, you know, I think it it reflects via the work week, via wages that uh we're on on steam for a 2 uh 2% type of real economy going forward, which may not be what the market's expecting, but what I think is going to happen.
Does the tepidness of this, the vectors, the three-month, the the six-month, the 12-month job uh formation and also wage growth, does it adjust what Chair Yellen will confront June 14th? I don't think it changes much. I I do agree that uh the chair, you know, believes in job growth more than anything else and to the extent that it's lower than the market expected perhaps.
But she's going in June. I I think the Fed Tom is uh for Clemp to cite an old Saturday Night Live skit uh phrase. You know, it it wants inflation higher in the real economy, but not necessarily in the financial markets. And so we have um you not dreaded fear, but you know, concern about financial bubbles in some areas, commercial real estate and and so on.
And and to be fair, other central banks are really pouring on the coal in terms of the global economy. The ECB and the BOJ, by the way, Tom, uh now have balance sheets larger than the Fed at 4 and a.5 trillion plus each of them. And so there's a lot of money coming into this global economy. And for the Fed to uh you know, join in and stop raising uh the the Fed funds level or even you know, not address what we have in terms of their balance sheet later in the year, I think, uh would be a mistake.
Little coffee talk here with uh Bill Gross of Janice Henderson here on jobs day. Bill, let me ask you uh what happens when the Fed begins unwinding this balance sheet? What's that going to mean for for term premium? Well, it depends on how fast, right, David? Um and we're talking about not only treasuries, but mortgages because they're in that pot.
you know, at the moment, uh, the the forecasts are the private forecasts are for like 10 to 15 billion dollars a month, which makes an inroad in terms of, uh, you know, reducing the balance sheet, but certainly at a very slow pace. I think ultimately though, to answer your question, that the term premium for 5 to 10 to 30-year treasuries, which are a significant part of that balance sheet, you know, basically have to has to increase.
Uh the term premium as uh you know not only forecast but uh put into evidence by uh several district uh Fed uh Fed Reserve banks has suggested that 75 basis points lower, you know, was the net net of uh the $4 trillion addition that we've seen, you know, prior to the the past few years. And so you would have to expect the term premium to go up.
Does it go by back up by 75 basis points? I don't think so, but certainly higher over the short term. David Ger, pick up the question here, but we got to do a data check for radio and television right now because this is really remarkable. 2.18% on the 10-year yield. The 30-year bond is 17 basis points in from 3%.
That is a huge deal. And over on the Kareem, get over here right now on Bloomberg television. For those of you in radio, this is a wow statistic. Bill Gross is minting money this morning. The 210 spread has broken under 90 basis points. Gross may have to cancel the interview. David, jump in with Bill while I I continue to look at the spread market.
Bill, let me ask you, you're you're a global investor. We have seen changes to geopolitics here over the last 24 hours and certainly over the last week plus. How does a different role for the US in the world change your outlook and your positioning? See, I think it's significant. I I don't think the market thinks it's significant because the stocks blew by that uh news, you know, yesterday.
But you know, let's look at it this way in terms of the Paris Accord and uh you know, our our absence at least in in terms of philosophical absence. You know, it's destructive from my uh point of view for equities because equities are long-term cash flow dependent. And what we're talking about here in terms of global warming uh going higher is the increase in long-term liabilities.
And so ultimately stocks have to be affected by the potential for the expense, the liability, you know, to contain global warming uh if it goes much higher. Okay, here's the heart of the matter. Kareem, don't come over here again. Kareem, come on. I make the rules. This chart was to Kaplan of Dallas.
This is the vector of inflation and Bill Gross has been dead on that we're not right. That that core PC inflation is rolling over. Bill, with this jobs report and with the 210 spread under 90 beeps, with yields coming in, weaker dollar, would you say even more so now that inflation is just not part of the debate and that gives Janet Yellen cover to lengthen out her her path to a normal yield policy?
Well, I I I I'm not sure I understood the uh the the two parts of that question, but I I think what it does for Janet Yellen is allow her to um you know, to to keep the Fed funds level uh the neutral the long-term neutral Fed funds rate at a lower level than she would have uh previously. You know, there is a a contentious debate among Fed officials as to what RSAR, which is really the real long-term uh you know, Fed funds rate, what it is.
And at the moment, it appears that it's less than zero. And I I think Janet Yellen will keep on keeping on and as long as financial markets in some areas of the economy do not show uh bubbish types of characteristics. How are you adjusting your portfolio, Janice Henderson? I mean, we have seen a Bill Gross economy over the last two months, I would suggest, where it's been a little bit disappointing from the enthusiasm.
How have you ingested your portfolio? Well, let's look at it this way from all asset classes, Tom. So, we know volatility is low. We know about the VIX, it's less than 10, which is historically low. Uh, we're not so uh, you know, necessarily informed on bond volatility, but it's historically low as well.
And so when you have volatility in the two major markets at low levels, you know, you certainly don't want to sell that volatility. And the way investors basically assume risk and sell volatility is to buy stocks to buy duration to buy high yield bonds at relatively low spreads. In other words, they move into markets that have low risk premiums when they should move into markets that have high risk premiums.
So this is definitely a market not just with stocks but with bonds and other asset classes where an investor has to be careful because of the low volatility that's embedded into the
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