저자: Kevin · 외국인
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BLS가 1월 CPI에서 주택(OER) 가중치를 단독주택 쪽으로 임의 상향 조정한 것을 문제 삼으며, 실제 시장 임대료는 하락 중인데 CPI 주거 항목이 지나치게 높게 잡혀 인플레이션이 실제보다 높아 보인다고 주장. 임대시장 지표(Zillow, Apartment List, New Tenant Repeat Index)와의 괴리를 근거로 제시. PCE도 CPI 영향을 받아 문제라고 주장하며, 내일 PCE 발표 예상치를 언급.
다듬은 글
wow I think we all expected to believe that CPI data was rigged but I don't think we thought on a month over Monon basis the Bureau of Labor Statistics the government agency responsible for putting together us consumer prices also known as the CP Li index I don't think that they would usually be so blatant as to send an email and basically go hey um for everybody looking for the weird thing that happened in January you're right we screwed up uh and oh well maybe we'll uh we'll we'll make some changes but uh for now that's all we got for you yeah that's literally what just happened so let's explain this I'm going to show you some screenshots here this is a big deal uh quick reminder if you haven't yet gotten into the new information on house Haack my real estate startup big things happening go to house hack.com 12024 and you'll see the warrants that have been called and you'll also see the new fund raise we have going on that it has a deadline to it all the information at house.com /24 or link down below okay so let's get into this so the big issue that they had here had to do with us CPI being heavily tilted towards what's known as owner's equivalent rent and a large adjustment that occurred between December and January now let me first explain a little bit about how stupid this thing is owner's equivalent rent is basically a measure of rent that lags by about 12 to 18 months the reason is you basically got bureaucrats going hey owner what do you think you can rent your house out for oh well my neighbors renting their house out for $2,800 great so an example you know a neighbor with a similar house whatever that's just a rudimentary example and purposfully S oversimplifying this so let's say the rent was $2,800 then we get a bunch of inflation that happened after the insane money printing we did of the 20120 2021 era well so you call the owner in 2021 hey what's your rent I don't know still 2,800 bucks it really takes about a year for them to be like man they just ran their place for $3,500 over there that's a 25% increase boom that's where you get the skyrocketing lag effect of of inflation basically really hitting Us by storm in the summer like June July of 2022 and then obviously throughout 2022 and 2023 now let's say that today the market rent has actually gone from 3500 down to 3395 well does that owner go hey is that what's the market right now you know what's going on what's the market oh um I don't know it's still rented for $3500 the next door neighbor so what good does that do you is that tenant going to pick up and move to find something else to save $100 a month maybe but maybe not because it's probably going to cost more than $1,200 their annual savings to actually pack their bags and move it's a pain in the butt so now you get people locked in at these higher rents and it is really really sticky to get rents to come down a lot of landlords instead of actually lowering rents will just not raise rents so when rents go up they raise rents like crazy when rents fall they just stop raising rents so you kind of get stuck now that's not to say that isn't the actual cost of what people have to pay in rent it is but here's the problem it's not the actual Market rent you've got this skew built in the skew between what somebody's currently paying and what somebody should be paying this is called gain or loss to lease that is just a fancy phrase you don't really have to know what that means but the point is currently we're seeing a lot of influx of Rental Supply at house Haack for example every single Market we're in and we're competing for properties in whether they're single family or multif family we're going in with the assumption that what rents were 6 months ago we're going to discount so we're underwriting deals at a lower rent because we expect to have to lower rents to be able to maintain full occupancy we like buildings operating at 100% occupancy anyway this has been one of the reasons we've seen such a Divergence this is one of the reasons which you could see this chart at e hack.com of course this is one of the reasons you can see that owner's equivalent rents in January skyrocketed here for no reason and they've kind of been sticky around this four to five uh you know 40 or 50 basis Point per month levels been sticky around here and actually increasing and the real problem with this is that rents are actually lowering but what did the good old BLS just tell us well the BLS just released this email they said the following good afternoon super users the weights for single family detached homes increased materially from December to January 2024 oh wait wait a minute multifam doesn't have the 30-year fixed rate mortgage lock in effect so that actually means you have less price Discovery in single family than in multif family in English prices for multif family rents are going to fall more quickly than that of single family rents because of that disparity we know we deal with both at house hack okay well that's a little problematic because if now you're saying the one that's not responding to the market you're going to weigh more heavily well you're just skewing the data you're literally messing up the data and what's their excuse for this all of you searching for the source of the Divergence have found it no additional information related to this question will be disseminated we do not do diagnostic analysis of Micro Data in other words the Bureau of Labor Statistics is straight up fullon Cavalier here hey um yeah we don't really have a reason why we just increased or tweaked weaked up the data for single family homes I don't even know what would possess somebody to make an adjustment in the waiting between singles and multi especially when singles should be weighted lower because you're getting less of a market read because there's less turnover in single family it doesn't even freaking make sense but all the explanation we're going to get As Americans whose livelihoods are affected by inflation through higher interest rates credit card rates car rates loan rates you name it business loans what a freaking pain in the freaking ass okay all of us who have to deal with this crap this is all we get yeah um we changed it and we're not really going to speculate on why okay how about actually trying to do the job of an economist and actually look at what's actually going on in markets how about that here's Bank of America shelter index they show you where owner's equivalent rent is up here the red line and for this one you have to use the uh right side so you're sitting at what is that about 6ish per over there on the owner's equivalent rent right side uh and then we pull over to the left side over here for the others the highest read is about Zillow sitting about maybe 4.2% but if you actually look at apartment list you're down at closer for apartment list boy at apartment list you're actually sitting at about -1% and then when you look at new tenant repeat index year-over-year you're at -5% this is a massive massive disparity in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is using for a measure of inflation and reality this is insane now what are the implications of this okay well this creates some problems first of all somebody else at the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that they're going to look into the data they may have some additional communication in the future that's because a lot of people are pissed off about this sort of rigging that's going on here it's it's quite frankly disgusting uh but beyond that the question is is it good news if single family gets weighed higher going forward no it's bad it literally means even if inflation is not staying higher for longer it's going to seem like it's staying higher for longer so it's bad it's fugazi it's BS now we get pce data but pce data which the FED prefers is like based heavily on the CPI reads so it's a complete disaster now another thing you could do is you could jump on over here and understand what happened in January so we got a core inflation read in January of 39% that was made up by 2% housing heavily influenced by this screw up by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 0.14% for Medicare Services vehicle insurance and vet services worth noting that Health uh care related Services usually have an unseasonable large increase in January I guess that would be a seasonally large anyway usually they have a big jump in January okay and sometimes the adjustments they make don't really accurately capture that and vehicle insurance is another sort of lagging any kind of insurance is very lagging in terms of how it affect is affected by inflation because it takes a while for cost to go up then the insurance company's like oh my gosh costs went up and then it takes a while for them to actually charge people hire insurance premiums to make up for that so really really lagging kind of data that still hot or just straight up rig data Goods deflation is literally at .5% for the month keep in mind small typo here this I'm going to change it's 6% for negative Goods inflation that way this adds up correctly but anyway the point is yes Goods deflation is occurring of course we know that and it's been occurring for a while we did have a jump in those core Services heavily driven by these three items Medicare Services vehicle insurance and vet servic and yes housing was adjusted up but the explanation we got for housing moving up was yeah we changed it deal with it and that is probably the most concerning part is that the explanation we get is yeah we changed it deal with it there's no logic to it there's no explanation to it it's just basically rigging the data I don't know maybe the person who's hitting enter on this has certain political persuasion and and want certain things I don't know maybe they like high money market rates which then again In fairness who doesn't now we'll get pce numbers tomorrow pce is expected to come in month over month.
3 deflator 2.4 point4 on the month over month in year-over year 2.8 if you have not already been watching me in the morning Market open live streams link down below you'll see the link to the meet Kevin Market live stream channel I'm live every single day the market is open at 5:25 a.m. California time providing you inside value trade ideas everything that we can talk about regarding the market for free at that channel go check it out Ct's
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