저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프가 EU 관세 부과를 7월 9일까지 유예했다고 언급되며 선물이 1% 상승했다. 관세가 결국 10% 수준의 협상용일지 대폭 인상될지는 불확실하다. 경제 타격 증거는 아직 적지만 일부 저소득층 연체가 있다. 파월급 연준 인사(Kashkari) 발언으로 불확실성이 고용에 부담이고 9월 인하는 이르다는 취지가 전해졌다. 연준은 평균 18% 관세를 기본 시나리오로 본다고 한다. 진행자는 단기(30일)는 나쁜 데이터를 기대하지 않으며 트레일링 스탑이 대체로 유지될 것으로 본다. 중기적으로는 불황 가능성도 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Happy Memorial Day. Please don't leave another comment that I'm wearing orange makeup. I'm just turning orange. How can I help myself when all of the tariffs that are supposed to destroy the economy and push us into a recession keep getting walked back almost as if all of the tariffs were just designed to be a big negotiation after all, like we thought during the campaign, but then didn't believe it.
Well, I guess we'll see what happens. But today, I'm going to provide you an update on exactly what's going on with the tariffs along with what Donald Trump is saying and a full breakdown of what Neil Kashkari just said at the Federal Reserve. I'll provide some other updates as well. I'm going to keep this one concise because it's a holiday and I want you to go do whatever it is you're doing.
Thank you for watching. Uh, by the way, if for whatever reason you decide, you know what, Kevin, if I could only take advantage of a Memorial Day to book a coaching call with Kevin, I would do it. I'm actually launching that. Uh, if you go to the link down below, you're going to see you can book a 40-minute coaching call with Kevin.
It'll be a Zoom audio call, so audio, not video, but we'll record it with OpusAI, so you could get your recording and summation. You can always reference it again. Just make sure you apply the coupon code Memorial Day. Okay, it's 31% off. I'm only doing it today. I want to see uh how I I'm a little bored right now.
Okay, this this the next 30 days are going to be a little bored boring for me. So, I'm going to book some coaching calls. Only offering this uh today on Memorial Day. And if we like it, maybe we'll bring it back. Uh and we don't have uh infinite slots for this either. So, go check that out. Uh it's linked down below.
And you'll go to this screen. Then you press enroll. Now, just make sure apply that. Just type in Memorial Day. Okay, cool. All right. So, Donald Trump this uh weekend suggested that he would delay the imposition of the European Union tariffs on the uh well European Union to July 9th, which is also the same day that liberation day 90day extension expires.
Now, this is really good because last week the European Union actually sent a proposal to the United States which the United States outright rejected. This comes at the same time as the European Union is threatening tariffs on around $25 billion of goods, threatening tariffs on another $90 billion worth of goods.
So, in other words, the European Union is threatening a lot of retaliatory tariffs while at the same time, Donald Trump has publicly expressed that he's frustrated with how the Europeans are negotiating. This is also coming at the same time as we have these reduced tariffs on China of 30%. Which we hope are going to get negotiated even lower.
But ultimately we don't know are we going to sit at a 10% base level or are tariffs going to end up moving up substantially. For right now it looks like we have basically bought ourselves all of June for those trailing stops to keep going to the freaking moon. And I'm just going to be clear here. There's very little evidence of true damage occurring to the economy at the moment.
Now, there are pockets of damage, delinquencies amongst uh lower income earners, but we've seen that ever since excess savings have evaporated. Broadly, the economy, whether it's propped up by artificial intelligence or corporate buybacks and spending, whatever it is, the rich people spending money, whatever it is, the economy just keeps booming.
Now, we'll see obviously where we end up by July 9th. And this is why we've got to talk about what Neil Tashkari just said. It is worth noting that futures were just so you know futures are open on Sunday even if the next day is uh a holiday. So futures still trade futures were up 1% on the news of this sort of tariff reprieve until July 9th with the European Union on Sunday.
So like the NASDAQ was up 1% for example. Uh and uh this again comes after last week Donald Trump said we're going to raise tariffs to 50%. and the EU proposal for negotiations was flatout rejected. Now everybody's taking a different tone. But what's interesting is you should pay attention to what the European Union is doing.
They're saying, "Oh yeah, July 9th, this is perfect. This will give us time to work something out. In the meantime, they're trying to cozy up not only to China, but to other countries to strengthen the euro because in the future, they actually think the euro could replace the dollar." And we knew the Afro wasn't going to make it when that proposal came.
But there was actually a time where African countries were thinking about forming the African Union and then coming up with the Afrocurrency. So there's a lot of talk about replacement currencies for the US dollar. Obviously, we've heard this with bricks before. And part of me wonders if during this sort of 90-day pause time, our enemies are or sort of our former allies and our enemies are um coordinating against us.
I really hope not. I really hope like I said at the beginning of the video that these are just negotiations. We get rid of tariffs. And that's exactly what Neil Qashqari says as well. Neil Qashqari says, "Look, we are talk and this is interesting. It's the forward-looking data that you should really pay attention to." And technically, it's not really data.
It's more like anecdotal. But anyway, he had this like 20 minute interview. Okay, maybe it was 10 minutes. It just felt really long and boring. He's like, "Uncertainty may weigh on the econ." All right, we've heard all this crap before. Like, I don't want to reiterate all this boring crap to you. I I want to respect your time.
So the the thing that I thought was really interesting is he says we are hearing from our business contacts uh that uh our businesses are making contingency plans should uncertainty continue uh and that would include significant layoffs as a potential. And so he says, "Look, if tariffs are just going to be, you know, uh 10% and uh all of the higher numbers are really just a negotiated level, maybe things will be fine and the stagflationary impact on our economy will be small.
But if we end up negotiating or settling with tariffs substantially higher, then we could have real problems and those layoffs may hit at the same time inflation stays sticky." Now, it's worth noting that Waller last week said that the Fed sort of has a base case that tariffs will end up settling somewhere around an average of 18%.
Now, they seem to think that could actually sustain a rate cut by the end of the year. I kind of think across the board 18% tariffs is going to weigh on our economy quite a bit, which I like. Now I try to, you know, I'm trying to align like is he thinking, you know, 18% is just going to keep inflation like decently low but a little higher than where it would have been, but then they need to cut because the economy is going to slow because of that 18%.
That kind of aligns a little bit with what Qashqari is saying. Whereas, you know, Qashqari is like it all depends on where the tariffs settle. Fine. But so far, even Qashqari says, "So far the labor market's holding up, so we're just going to wait and see. September might even be too soon to cut, which is really interesting." So obviously, we'll see.
So far, we just get a big kick kick of the can down the road by Donnie T, which bodess really well for trailing stops, and we'll be talking about that like we were last week. We're like, look, if you set trailing stops on these EU tariff announcements, you won't get hit until you're out like, you know, 4 to 10% on certain stocks.
nothing actually went down that level as far as I you know of the stocks that I was watching because people immediately bought the dip before there was a dip and now futures being up 1% implies we're just going to kind of keep going. This is what we've been saying for the last 30 days like hey even if you're bearish on the economy in the medium term like I kind of am I think you know over the next year you know we we could fall into a recession unless things you know really start cooking again which I hope they do.
I'd rather not fall into a recession. Uh but you know in the very very short term like I said 30 days ago even over the next 30 days until liberation day you know liberation day 2.0 I'm not expecting any bad data. Now that said uh Donald Trump uh I also want to know oh okay and Qashqari Qashqari also says crypto is speculation whatever Donald Trump threatened to divert Harvard money to trade schools.
I actually thought that was this was really interesting and I've talked about Harvard before. I'm not the biggest fan of some of the research money, you know, getting deleted from our, you know, research institutions that are researching quantum mechanics or uh cancers or whatever, especially since some of these studies have been going on for decades.
Those make me a little nervous when we start cutting from science. But I get the whole, you know, Harvard versus divert the money elsewhere argument. And I want to say, remember in 2021 when I ran for governor in California, what did I pitch? I called it future schools. and future schools would integrate trade schools into high school.
So that way when you graduate at 18, you could go work as a journeyman electrician or plumber or carpenter or whatever framer, right? That's what we need. And now with AI, we need even more of that. I've been talking about that for, you know, four years. So hearing Donald Trump suggest that we should, you know, spend money on trade school, absolutely love it.
In fact, I think he should include it in the big beautiful bill, but that's not tentatively in the big beautiful bill. But whatever. Also, quick correction and retraction. Apparently, the IRS deems cash tips in the Big Beautiful Bill as including credit card transactions, which is really weird to me because when I worked at Red Robin, cash tips were the tips that you got in cash and then you would have to go to the terminal and report them.
Well, most people if they got a $10 tip, they'd put like $1 as a tip in because they just didn't want to pay taxes on the $9 and they'd pocket that, which did make it harder for them to qualify for a home. technically is against the law. You know, they should have been reporting that, but that was just a very common standard.
People wouldn't report their cash tips. Credit card tips are automatically reported to the IRS and they're part of your paycheck or whatever. Well, apparently the IRS deems cash tips credit card and cash tips, which is really good for servers because it would actually reduce your overall taxation on even credit card tips, which is cool.
And I think uh it's somewhere around 6040 in terms of uh cash 60% and 40% credit card tips. Although I think that's going to flip over to more CC's o over time here. Anyway, uh then we've got merits of Deutsland giving the green light for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. This is really the European Union trying to exert their dominance uh and and push, you know, the European Union uh into further support for Ukraine against Russia.
I thought it was really interesting. But Poland actually has the largest army in Europe right now outside of Russia, which uh I would not have guessed that. I would have guessed it was like France or Germany or something like that. So, I thought that was very interesting. Also, with that, uh thank you for those of you who are emailing me asking about the deadline for investing in House Hack.
Uh I had an email this morning, for example. Somebody's like, "Hey, I'm on a cruise. Like, am I going to be okay?" Yes, don't worry. No, no expiration plan for investing in house hack between now and at least the next Fed meeting and I'll give you at least two week notice. We're not going to keep it open forever because uh we think over time broader interest rates will fall uh and then we're going to get rid of this 5% offer.
But if you want to lock that in, the only benefit to investing earlier until the round is closing for House Hack is you start collecting that 5% sooner, which some people want to do because you know stocks are pretty high. So, I know some people are sort of diversifying a little bit. Other people are waiting for those trailing stops to hit and I'm totally respecting of that as well because again that's what we've been advocating as sort of, you know, broader financial suggestion, not personalized financial advice.
Anyway, uh risk with every investment. Make sure to read the paperwork. Thank you so very much for watching. Uh go check out that uh coaching call in the first link in the description down below. And folks, we'll see you in the next video. Thanks so much. Goodbye and have a wonderful Memorial Day. Right.
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