저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 한 달간 20% 넘게 하락한 원인은 주요 고객사(아마존·메타·알파벳·MS)가 AI 투자 압박을 받아 엔비디아 구매를 줄일 위험이 커졌기 때문이라고 진단. 현재 EPS 전망은 오히려 상향됐고, 5년 EPS 성장률 46%·PER 28 수준을 근거로 하락을 매수 기회로 봄. 단, 리스크가 커진 만큼 주의 필요.
다듬은 글
hey everyone nvidia's stock price is down over 20% of its high in the last month so investors are curious if this is a buying opportunity or if nvidia's stock price is going to fall further from here so in this video I'll discuss why Nvidia stock price is falling and I'll also let you know if I think this is a buying opportunity or if I think it's time for investors to sell Nvidia stock so let's get started you'll notice here I have a group of four uh Investments Nvidia stock being one of them and it's down over 20% but if you look at the broader semiconductor ETF it's down over 22% in the last month so it's not just Nvidia stock price that's falling and the S&P 500 ETF is down over 5% 5.68% to be precise and the NASDAQ is down over 3% so it's a broader Market selloff Nvidia is not the only thing that's selling off specifically now if I was to share with you the primary customers of nvidia's products right now those are Amazon meta platforms alphabet and Microsoft these are the hyperscalers that are building out data centers capable of producing Ai and they are the ones primarily spending on nvidia's gpus now I can include here Tesla Tesla's buying nvidia's gpus Oracle and many other companies that are buying Nvidia gpus but the four largest are the ones I've listed here and they are down in the last month as well 99.6% meta platforms Amazon's down 16% Microsoft and uh alphabet down 12% respect ly and the reason why this is bad news for NVIDIA is because if their primary customers are seeing their stock valuations fall because they've been telling their investors that they're going to spend tens of billions of dollars building out their AI but if these four hyperscalers see their stock price fall as a result of their investments in AI they may then pause their plans to spend on building AI remember a couple of years ago when meta platforms announced that it was going to invest in the metaverse and after they're pointing out that investment to their investors the stock price fell significantly and then meta platforms went back to investors and said okay okay okay we get it you don't like that we're spending money on the metaverse and so we'll decrease our investments in the metaverse and then its stock price recovered so there's a similar risk here with artificial intelligence where these companies Amazon meta alphabet and Microsoft have been investing aggressively in Ai and if their investors come back to them and say we don't like it and the way they will do that is by selling their share price and then the stock price will fall and then these four large companies could then have to go back to their investors and say look I know we said we're going to spend tens of billions of dollars on nvidia's gpus and building out data centers but we understand that it's too much for the investing community and so we're going to reduce those investments in Ai and if they do that that would be bad news for NVIDIA because then that's lower Revenue growth and lower profitability for NVIDIA and nvidia's gpus so that's the risk that's been creeping up in the last month and that's the risk that investors are responding to right now with Nvidia is that the investors of the large customers of Nvidia are pressuring them on these AI Investments they're not as patient as they were six months ago where they were willing to let these companies invest in AI but now they're kind of asking you know how are you going to generate revenue from these Investments how are these Investments going to generate revenue and profits for us and they want to see more tangible evidence of that and so that could put more pressure on these four large companies which could then pressure Nvidia because these four large companies won't purchase from Nvidia all that much now so far I'm not seeing any indication of that happening if you look at the earnings per share expected for NVIDIA in the current year and next year and you look at the last 30 days they've actually increased the earnings per share expectations 30 days ago analysts on Wall Street were expecting Nvidia to deliver $252 in EPS they now expect Nvidia to deliver $272 in EPS in their current fiscal year re up as well in the last 30 days $3 $33.39 was the expectations before and now it's $3.74 so the EPS expectations have not been decreased over the last 30 days for NVIDIA so far what has driven the stock price down is the risk that they could potentially be decreased but those haven't shown up yet in the EPS expectations still the risk increasing is a valid reason for a stock price to fall right investors that are putting up their money have a equation have a balance here it's risk versus return and if your risk is increasing then the price you're willing to pay should decrease it should decrease because all else being equal would you rather have a 10% return on your money guaranteed or would you rather have a 10% return on your money with risk where it's uncertain maybe you'll get 10% maybe you'll get 12% maybe you'll get eight maybe you'll get six maybe you'll get neg five with the added risk from your investment your willingness to invest should decrease because all of us would prefer a rate of return with less risk and if your risk is increasing the price you're willing to pay should decrease and that's what's happening with Nvidia stock right now that risk is increasing and the reason that risk is increasing is because the pressure on its largest customers are increasing and so as that pressure increases on its largest customers maybe those large customers come back to Nvidia and say you know what I know we were telling you we were going to order this many of your products but actually we're going to order this many instead we're going to order less instead so that's the risk with Nvidia stock and that's the reason why Nvidia stock price is falling and the pressure on Nvidia stock NOW to answer the question is this a buying opportunity or should you sell Nvidia stock as a result of this risk I would say the former I would say this is a buying opportunity sure the risk increased for Nvidia stock but also the price decreased by 20% and I don't think the added risk justifies the 20% stock price decrease the stock 8.8 which I think is a cheap valuation for NVIDIA given its earnings prospects for this year next year and also if we look out for the next 5 years the expectations are that Nvidia will increase its earnings per share by 46% per year over the next 5 years so that's a robust rate of earnings growth to pay for a company trading at just 28 in fact I closer to 35 for NVIDIA 28 is on the lower end of where I'm willing to purchase Nvidia stock so all in all I do think this dip in nvidia's share price with the caveat that you have to understand the stock is now riskier because of those factors I mentioned so you do have that added risk but I think the return justifies the risk for Nvidia stock of course this is for informational purposes only and I recommend you do your own do diligence I have dozens of videos on Nvidia stock on my channel I recommend watching many of those before coming to a conclusion on purchasing Nvidia stock
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