저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 크립토가 중요한 바닥 근처에 있으며 AI 인프라로서의 블록체인 역할과 Clarity Act, 친암호화폐 정책, 인구구조 기반 주식 강세 등 여러 촉매가 겹친다고 주장한다. 유가 하락(전쟁 종료 가정)이 인플레 우려를 줄여 리스크자산에 우호적이라고 본다. Luke Gromen은 비트코인이 유동성 신호등 역할을 하며 AI·원자재·유가가 유동성을 빨아들이고 있어 여전히 신중해야 한다고 경고한다. 영상 속 발언 중 두 사람의 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 비트코인 중심이며 1~3개월 기준의 구체적 수치는 없다.
다듬은 글
Thus, for watching, this much more effective than traditional rails and installing what robots do. I mean, to give you an example, whether it's authentication or identity or payment speed, all of these work better on crypto systems. And you're going to ask yourself, "Well, why hasn't this reflected in crypto prices?" That's because the stock market is still working its way downstream.
The future infrastructure of AI is going to be our crypto. So, to me, it makes perfect sense that we're just working our way through, and I think this is just a matter of odds. So, uh if you're bearish, you are selling at the bottom. And again, I can't emphasize, I think if you're bearish today, you are bearish in the bottom of Bitcoin in a year or
Over the past few weeks, crypto investors have been forced to watch one of the most frustrating market environments of this entire cycle unfold. Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum. Ethereum has repeatedly failed to attract sustained buying pressure, and many altcoins have suffered even deeper losses.
What's making the situation even more painful is that, until recently, traditional markets appeared unstoppable. Stocks pushed to record highs. AI-related companies attracted enormous amounts of capital, and investors were told that risk assets were entering a new golden age. But then, everything changed suddenly on Friday.
In a single trading session, more than $2.5 trillion was wiped out across global markets. The S&P 500 lost over a trillion dollars in value. The Nasdaq suffered one of its sharpest declines of the year. Gold and silver were hit hard. Bitcoin fell more than 6%. Suddenly, every major asset class was moving lower together.
What started as a market built on optimism quickly turned into a market driven by uncertainty. The trigger was a perfect storm of events. A surprisingly [snorts] strong jobs report reignited fears that inflation could remain elevated for much longer than investors expected. Oil prices remain stubbornly high.
Questions began to emerge about whether the AI boom had become overheated after disappointing reactions to major earnings reports and concerns about future demand. At the same time, investors are preparing for a massive wave of capital raising from some of the world's most valuable private companies, while a new Federal Reserve chair prepares for his first policy meeting under intense pressure.
The result is a market that suddenly looks far less predictable than it did just days ago. And yet, despite all of this negativity, not everyone believes the outlook is bearish. In fact, some of Wall Street's most respected market analysts believe crypto may be much closer to a major turning point than most investors realize.
In today's video, we're going to hear two very different but equally important perspectives. Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes crypto is sitting near an important bottom and that several powerful catalysts could soon emerge. Meanwhile, macro analyst Luke Gromen is taking a far more cautious approach, warning that liquidity conditions may still be working against Bitcoin and risk assets.
Together, their insights paint a fascinating picture of where markets could be heading next. Before we get into it, if you enjoy our market breakdowns and want to help us continue bringing you analysis from some of the biggest names in finance and crypto, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and share it with someone who follows the markets.
Also, let us know in the comments, do you agree more with Tom Lee's bullish outlook or Luke Gromen's cautious approach? We'd love to hear your thoughts. Now, let's get into it. Oil is the real driver of inflation. So, if there's an inflation problem created by oil, then the heat such a base has to be tight correlation the national saying oil prices have gone up petroleum products have been supplies and then were severely impacted and our policy makers have to raise interest rates.
So, if the war ends, I think that you're going to see a collapse in oil. Uh in fact of any of you are technicians, you know that this is probably likely that if the war ends, the terror pre and local oil and then at least see $40. Ethereum has huge negative correlation to oil rate down. In fact, it's the highest inverse correlation ever the history of Ethereum.
So, clearly rising oil is negative for ETH price. You can see it in statistically. And if you don't believe me about inflation and oil, take a look at this chart. This chart starts 1985. The top chart is the price change of oil. The bottom is with your CPI. And as you can see, every time when we hit a sustained spike in oil, core CPI accelerates higher.
So, if oil if this is a long war, we're going to have inflation. And in fact, the FOMC last month has said the same thing. In their minutes, they said that policy firming would be appropriate if inflation were to continue to persist above 2%. So, central banks you don't want inflation above 2%. Oil stays high, they're going to be hawkish.
However, we're betting on a war that ends soon. The second positive catalyst in the macro is the Clarity Act. It's a huge deal. Uh we all know why the Clarity Act matters. It basically provides a legitimate framework for crypto to proliferate in the US, but also a financial institutions to build. But unfortunately, the market only believes there's a 56% chance Clarity Act is signed this year.
Now, I've talked to a lot of folks in Washington and including our policy experts, I it does seem like the odds are much higher. The prediction markets are trying to fight equilibrium, but I do think probability of passage is much higher than 56%, but of course we know that big banks don't want this to happen.
But keep in mind the big banks uh don't write policy uh laws are to represent people and that's why we have to keep in mind there are a lot of constituents that want to see the CARRIE Act passed. That passes that's a big catalyst. The third positive catalyst is of course don't forget the White House is a very pro Bitcoin pro crypto White House.
It's also very good for the US dollar policy uh especially with ready stable points. The fourth is we have a new Fed chair having Warsh and having Warsh uh is pro Bitcoin. And finally the stock market has a massive tailwind. I know a lot of you guys maybe bearish on equities you think they've run too far, but at Fundstrat uh which is another hat I wear we've been bullish on stocks uh structurally and a lot of it has to do with this chart.
This chart is the number of people in America age 30 to 50. Every time it goes up the US economy will grow faster than trend. And we are seeing this above trend because of millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha. Now as you can see on this chart if you overlay equity returns with uh the the number of people age 30 to 50 the stock market has always risen par above Lee.
And this tells us that markets Nasdaq peak could be 15,000 to 18,000 by the end of this decade. So these are the tailwinds for crypto, but of course you're still going to wonder why crypto uh is so weak. And I think it's because people are forgetting that crypto is the future of money, okay? The first thing I want to cover is agent and agent agentic in robotics and why crypto will play a role.
This is a list of all the milestones since the ChatGPT was introduced in 2023, okay? And there's been significant advances in the last 3 years. Of course, the first was the launch in ChatGPT. The second much happened in 2024 was when the agent systems began to develop capabilities to work with websites, interact with websites.
And the third big advancement has been robotics, Optimus Prime and their dexterity, and of course the the new crave uh building drones at industrial scale. And then finally, we're seeing uh superhuman capabilities develop. So, OpenAI developing uh solving an 8-year-old puzzle, and then Figure AI wants the robot that that actually builds an army at scale in a warehouse.
So, that is the future. Robots have already begun to dominate most traffic on the internet. And this is why Marc Andreessen and others have talked about this as being the greenification because if you got a robot system which you're going to have to control, and that's where watching is much more effective than the traditional rails and controlling uh what robots do.
I mean, to give an example, whether it's authentication or identity or payment speed, all of these work better on crypto systems. And you're going to ask yourself, "Well, why hasn't this reflected in crypto prices?" That's because the stock market is still working its way downstream. The first group that really benefited from the AI ecosystem was the semis, And they're still going up.
And then last year was memory stocks, and they're still in the process of re-rating. But as you can see, the market's starting to now see the AI benefit to the max. And it's working its way to software. People have software was you lose with AI, but you can see this little parabolic spike. Software companies are benefiting from AI because they're developing the downstream applications.
And finally, the future infrastructure of AI is going to be our crypto. So, to me it makes perfect sense that we're just working our way through. And I think this is just a matter of odds. Tom Lee's argument ultimately comes down to a simple idea. The market may be focusing too much on short-term fear while ignoring the bigger structural forces developing underneath the surface.
From his perspective, concerns about inflation and oil prices are important, but they are temporary obstacles. If geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices decline, inflation pressures could quickly fade, giving central banks more flexibility and removing one of the biggest headwinds facing crypto today.
Combined with favorable regulatory developments, a supportive political environment, and strong demographic trends supporting economic growth, Lee sees multiple catalysts lining up at the same time. Perhaps even more importantly, Lee believes investors are underestimating crypto's role in the future of artificial intelligence.
As AI systems become increasingly autonomous and robotics continue advancing, he argues that blockchain technology will become essential infrastructure for authentication, identity, payments, and machine-to-machine transactions. In his view, the market is simply moving through the AI investment chain with semiconductors and software benefiting first before capital eventually flows toward crypto.
But while Lee sees the current weakness as an opportunity, our next speaker believes recent price action may be sending a more cautious message. Here's Luke Gromen. Have you started buying back in or are you waiting for Bitcoin to crash lower cuz it's not doing well in these last couple days? No, it's had a tough tough couple of days.
You know, I I I I nibbled a little bit, but basically the the answer's no. I have not really bought back in in any real way. I didn't sell at all, but I sold most of it. So, the answer's no, I haven't. And so, I'm I'm watching with interest here. You know, the way it's been trading, particularly the last you know, three, four days, it's had it's had a bit of a rough stretch and you know, I think there's potential information in that.
You know, let's see. Can you break down why you think this is happening when we're seeing such momentum in stocks? We keep seeing the all-time highs. This is almost reminding me on the stock side of 2021, right? Every other day, all-time high, all-time high, but Bitcoin was doing so well back then. We were in a bull run.
So, what's the disconnect here? I don't know for sure. My working hypothesis is is if you look at sort of the [snorts] underpinnings of this market run, they're not really healthy, actually. The headline indices, yes, all-time high, all-time high, all-time high, and it's like seven stocks. Just saw a chart yesterday that ex- things related to AI, the S&P 500 is flat to down slightly from the day before the Iran war started.
If you take US MSCI US and then MSCI emerging market and you take TSMC, Samsung, and another big AI memory related name, I can't think of it, out of the US MSCI EM, it looks on the surface like EM is crushing the US. But if you take those three or four AI related names out, AI's or EM's actually getting crushed.
So there's these, you know, we've seen the stuff about breadth and I think that's you know, breadth breadth of the market is very very poor for where we are in terms of the headline indices and I think what's ultimately happening is AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, all the liquidity out of the room and it's all in one area and I think that's happening to Bitcoin as well.
I think it's a victim victim of that as well and you know, as we've we've talked about many times, I think Bitcoin's one of if not the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity and it's telling us not good things. Now, at the same time, we also have oil sucking liquidity out of the room and and we are doing everything we can to try to keep oil down.
Well, we the Trump administration, the US doing everything they can to try to keep oil down, mostly via job owning, Western SPR releases, etc. But oil's up 50 50% from even even at these relatively lower levels, it's up 50% since the war started. So give or take. So I think you got oil sucking oxygen out of the room, commodities sucking oxygen out of the room, AI sucking oxygen out of the room in terms of liquidity and everything else that isn't one of those three things or directly related to it, um they're they are they're not doing that well, you know, they're flat to down.
The contrast between Tom Lee and Luke Gromen is what makes this discussion so valuable for investors. Both men recognize the long-term significance of Bitcoin, blockchain technology and the broader digital asset ecosystem. Neither is arguing that crypto's future has disappeared. The difference lies in how they interpret the present moment.
Tom Lee sees a market approaching an inflection point. He believes inflation concerns could ease, regulatory clarity could improve and AI adoption could ultimately create enormous demand for blockchain-based infrastructure. From that perspective, today's fear may look very similar to previous moments when investors became excessively bearish near important lows.
His message is clear. Don't allow short-term volatility to blind you to long-term opportunity. Luke Gromen, however, is paying closer attention to liquidity. While stock indexes continue making headlines, he sees a market increasingly concentrated in a small number of AI-related winners. Capital is flowing toward artificial intelligence, energy, and commodities, while other sectors struggle to attract investment.
In his view, Bitcoin's recent weakness may not be random at all. Instead, it could be signaling that liquidity conditions remain tighter than many investors appreciate. Until those conditions improve, he believes caution remains warranted. The reality is that both perspectives can be true at the same time.
Crypto may indeed be approaching a powerful long-term opportunity while still facing significant short-term challenges. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and some of the strongest bull markets in history have emerged from periods of maximum uncertainty. The key question for investors is whether current weakness represents the end of the story or simply another chapter within a much larger trend.
As always, the coming weeks could prove extremely important. Between Federal Reserve decisions, developments in the AI sector, geopolitical events, energy markets, and evolving crypto regulation, investors have no shortage of catalysts to monitor. Whether you lean toward Tom Lee's optimism or Luke Gromen's caution, one thing is certain.
This is not a market environment that can be ignored. If you found this analysis helpful, please support the channel by liking the video, subscribing if you're new, sharing it with friends and fellow investors, and leaving a comment below with your thoughts on where Bitcoin and crypto are headed next.
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