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넷플릭스 실적 쇼크(가입자 전망 하회)로 구독주 급락, 시장 전반 약세. 연준 긴축 우려로 단기 고통은 불가피하나 코로나 종식 후 인플레 둔화·연준 비둘기 복귀 시 반등을 기대. 마진콜 방지 위해 부채 정리, 소비 축소, 옵션(ITM 콜) 활용 등을 제시. 자산 매수는 공격적으로 이어가는 중.
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oh what up step bros and step girls i'm stuck uh in stocks that have gone down uh folks look we we gotta talk about this disaster of uh netflix and uh the market because um we got problems and that's why we got to talk so look last february february 19th we had a really bad omen and that was the bloomberg terminal two-factor identification thing uh telling me to pray that gives me a four-digit combination and it literally was p-r-a-y on february 19th and i don't know if it's coincidence or maybe the suits know something but the market crashed for like the next three months thereafter okay it was horrible i mean uh february was negative march was negative april was like a tiny little rebound and then may was even worse and the summer was okay and and then they had the september crash and then you had a little bit of rally in october november and then the december crossing it was just a crappy year right so today i uh get a bloomberg code uh if you watch my morning live stream you'll see me actually hold it up and it's uh it's the title of the video uh sh9 t and it's like oh okay so it's censored [ __ ] and uh the market starts out great but boy oh boy dude we follow the same convictionless rally pattern and the same pattern that we felt uh in last uh uh last february and the market just you turned straight freaking down now that's intraday last february it happened for months uh but it was okay because like netflix earnings were coming out and uh that's the beginning of tax season subscription services and how bad can it be i mean people stop buying peloton so peloton has to stop manufacturing pelotons because they've got so much excess inventory made a whole video on that earlier today like expected that's why we sold out a peloton at 113 uh you know unfortunately peloton is uh you know it was a covet play so you got the colvin reversal play and such you know maybe maybe some of that was going to come to netflix as well but no no netflix was an utter disaster now i covered the netflix earnings in detail at the end of the closing market live stream so you could watch the exact numbers but i'm just gonna give you the bottom line uh no bs uh uh answers here to what you need to know about what happened with netflix okay it was bad they were expecting a forecast of revenue or user growth of around six and a half million users in q1 so right now uh january february march well they revised that down to two and a half million like what more than a half or the forecast was half of expectations less than half of expectations it's insane way less than half it's like 35 percent of expectations it's terrible uh and they're suggesting that emerging markets were and are potentially their largest growth for new mar uh consumers because like everybody in america already has it but now i'm like i gotta think about starting to cancel my netflix subscriptions and all my other subscriptions because uh i'm losing money here i'm out of freaking money buying the dip i am literally on autopilot right now driving back from the dentist uh and uh the dentist like kevin the good news is you don't have any cavities the bad news is you've got an abscess under this tooth right here that you said you had pain on or i'd pain in my tooth that i complained about i emailed them back in like the pandemic in like june of 2020.
uh but the pain went away i'm like oh i'm brilliant i'm using sensodyne no the tooth just freaking died and now there's an abscess under it and it's like you're gonna have to get a root canal and i'm like uh okay what are you doing now he's like well we're gonna start the root canal here's your shot here's your anesthetic i'm like can we not do the anesthetic so i can save that money because i've been buying the dip so we did the root canal without anesthetic which apparently isn't that bad when your tooth is already dead because tooth is dead the nerve is dead but i'm like i need to save that 300 shot to come by the tip uh but anyway so going back to netflix the the the netflix omen here is absolutely horrible it's it's literally bad there's there's a reason netflix fell 10 instantly when we were covering the earnings on it uh but like it goes deeper because it's not just netflix falling 10 now it's down like 21 dragging down disney stock dragging down roku anything subscription subscription-based is like oh the time to sell up there has been less volatility in crypto in freaking crypto than there has been in the stock market the last few weeks which is my my boy but look this is bad because the signal here is that uh spending growth is slowing now to some degree this is like a a short-term bad and a long-term good because what happens when spending slows down which by the way is what i advocate whether you're a course member or you're just watching these videos stop spending freaking money because when markets get rough you want all of the freaking money that you can get your hands on so that way you can invest uh i don't care if that means refinance all your properties uh pay off your margin debt you know take out longer term debt that's stable 30-year fixed rates where tenants are paying it in favor of like margin debt right margin and bad right now bad like in in some cases it it's going to make sense for people to start paying off their margin even if that means taking some losses taking some l's just to prevent margin calls because ultimately you want to protect that core of your portfolio right now you can do that with some tricks like some things that you could do is you could take you could go buy you know uh at the money or slightly in the money uh i prefer in the money uh longer term call options whether they bring you out to january 2023 or january 2024 or whatever and and uh because you're using less capital now maybe you can pay off your margin that's an option that's literally what i did in may of uh 2021 and that worked well i got completely out of margin in may of 2021 and held options with no margin so that way it still had the leverage but without the risk of a margin call now the problem with that is you got to have balls of steel to do that because if you go into call options especially if you go nutso when you start going out of the money calls the volatility on those is freaking insane i do not recommend you go out of the money calls because the theta decay will eat you alive i did the math earlier on on tesla calls if i went for a 2 000 tesla call versus uh no actually i did it on end face 300 out of the money because then face is like 150 so if i went for a 300 january 2023 out of the money call option uh after six months of handling it i would lose about 75 of the value huddling that sucker so instead i calculated well what if i did like an 80 uh which is like super in the money you know i'd have to decline 50 for that not to be in the money uh the stock and so what's super in the money and i can hold that thing for 180 days and approximately because you know black souls model options pricing is insane but anyway uh i can hold that thing for 180 days and my theta decay would only cost me like six or seven percent i think it might have even been lower when i executed it may have been as low as like five percent i set a lower limit anyway if none of that made sense the point is just basically to say be careful of out of the money call options in this kind of market but we gotta have a little bit more of a discussion about where we're heading and and i think that's the important part is where we're heading and strategies for for that uh in addition to the strategies i just talked about and what this this netflix earnings means and and what uh you know this this uh two-factor identification code means it's a problem we're gonna talk about that i'm also gonna talk about real estate in just a second some strategies some strategies regarding real estate uh but first uh this video is sponsored and brought to you by a masterworks i don't have a script or anything so i'm just going to do my best look if you want to diversify a little bit from the madness of the stock market for masterworks the cool thing about them is you know how we buy fractional shares of stuff you can get fractional shares basically of art they've got a secondary market as well so if you need to sell early you can but ideally you diamond hand what what you buy with uh fractional shares of these uh art pieces uh so that way uh you you know when they end up selling the art in the future uh you get a nice diversified hopefully appreciated return and since the 90s luxury art has outperformed a lot of the stock market uh and even crypto market here recently so it's kind of an interesting way to diversify and i recommend at least looking into it look into diversifying with masterworks i'll link down below pretty cool amazing artists they've got as well so any of the you're thinking like banksy or any of the major artists they got okay so for the sponsor and huge shout out to them for sponsoring this video thank you for that okay so what what's on my mind right now well look you all know i hate selling i'm not much of a seller i did sell today uh but i i bought more than i sold i bought about 1.8 million dollars and i sold about 800 000 now what i did is i sold about 35 different positions and i've narrowed my portfolio down into my highest conviction about 14 positions and i'm going to eventually get this down to about 11 positions this is not advice by any means because for most people more diversification is better you need about 30 to 50 stocks to have the diversification approximately of an index uh approximately and uh i'm not really good at hitting the different sectors because i believe my big element of diversification is the fact that half my portfolio is in real estate right actual real estate ownership not stocks uh but i'm heavily exposed to consumer discretionaries in tech and those don't do well in this kind of market this is the kind of market where you can build some sick positions in them but you're going to have again to have balls of steels to survive here uh otherwise you know you might for example be interested in stocks like that can actually benefit from pricing increases by inflation which have we've talked about the inflation pie before through m1 finance which i created which was like sherwin-williams hasbro mattel those stocks have actually done very well relative to the losses we've seen at companies like arc uh invest which are going super high tech in the innovative so your defensives your dividend payers look at att it's up 20 whereas arc is down like 30 over the same time frame right so your your infrastructure place the the john deere's the caterpillars uh that the hasbro mattel sherwin williams uh maybe maybe more of the the cores like the costco or the targets we thought banks but bank earnings weren't that great uh and so those are just ideas for diversifying i i'm not going in that direction though uh what i'm doing is i'm concentrating and really doubling down on my bets which is painful but i get some beautiful entry prices this is not for everyone though and this is where i just want to give not advice because i can't get financial advice but a suggestion to everyone you got to look at your portfolio and you've got to ask yourself are you somebody who's who's willing to potentially sit on a portfolio that's red for a year or 18 months or longer uh kind of like uh or potentially even years i don't i don't think that but you have to be willing to say yeah i don't care i own this percentage of the company i'm increasing my ownership in the company i'm good i'm diamond handed i don't have a risk of a margin call because you're you're protected whether you refinance some properties and get out of margin or you you switch switch some some share ownership to margin i don't care what you got to do you got to make sure that you're protected and ready if you're going to go all in on tag and then what do you do well then you spend less money in your life on your day-to-day basis you sit down tonight right after i don't care right you know what after you watch this video don't go watch another youtube video unless it's one of mine uh go go cancel subscriptions to like everything like seriously cancel subscriptions to everything i don't care netflix disney uh you know any of the discretionary crap you have in your amazon cart and stuff cancel everything uh and what's interesting is first of all as you do this and you focus on saving more money and investing getting into the market however you want to invest ultimately is up to you you know the stocks i like uh but but you should choose them for your own portfolio and your own diversification shake get as much money as you can and then when you have more money these are the times to be greedy and be picking up good deals you just need more money so sometimes that actually means going out of your way and picking up that extra overtime shift maybe that means picking up a side hustle uh now i know that's not super popular to say it's like oh just go work more but that's the reality like it it's so easy to just say right now and i don't get me wrong like i get i get those feelings too i don't love red days i try my best not to get affected uh because that's the point of the psychology of investing you don't want to paper hand at bottom and and then miss out on opportunity opportunities of a potential lifetime to buy dips right i know some people who have more cash around i spent a lot of my cash early uh i still have cash so like i said i went one and a half in today no 1.8 in and uh eight out so net i went one million dollars into the market today right it's crazy i know but uh i'm still buying uh but the point is like get out there and work harder it's easy and this was the temptation that i was going to say it's easy to have the temptation to say you know what sell everything take the l and just go on a two-month vacation and effort right it's easy to say that but uh ultimately here's a crazy thing that could potentially happen this is the weird thing okay you know how i just said stop spending money guess who the first people are gonna stop spending money the people who are watching this market businesses you want to know something interesting and this is why you always want to make it deep in my videos because this is where you get where you get the good stuff okay screw all the people who click on the video and click out in the first 20 impatient losers unless you gotta go you know maybe i mean i do that sometimes too but maybe there's a reason or i'm an impatient loser i don't know what is it the pot calling the kettle black all right here's the thing youtube youtube okay youtube pays us for ad views right you know that uh ad views uh ad rates go up when companies are trying to advertise like crazy and and get more customers which i'm and i still believe this i think in 2022 at some point ad rates are going to go up substantially because i think advertisers are going to or just businesses are going to have to advertise more to get the consumer well right now that's not what's happening the ad rates on youtube usually when you go from december to january fall like 15 okay big deal they're down like 28 to 35 right now that to me is a signal that potentially businesses are actually starting to advertise a little less to prepare for the potential fallout of the federal reserve hiking and that's what we're seeing right now is a lot of the of the market uh hedge funds institutions banks everybody's preparing for this rate heights hike cycle now why are we raising rates well because we've had a lot of inflation the inflation has happened do we expect it to continue no once covid ends which we don't know when cove it's going to end that's a problem if coveted keeps going we're going to keep having inflation but once covet ends prices are going to come back down not only are prices going to come back down once coveted ends but guess what business is cutting on advertising people cutting on their purchases business is cutting back on hiring whatever that has the net effect of actually helping inflation go down so ironically you have this this really big fear period or fear moment that we're in right now which is okay let's prepare for the fed rate hiking rates substantially because of all this inflation uh and in doing so people actually induce lower inflation and if at the same time we peak on covid and covet ends going into the summer then the fed could actually turn dovish going okay inflation's inflecting down things are getting better market could rally could could no guarantees or you could just be screwed right that's always possible too it just goes hyperinflation i don't expect that and neither does the bond market you need to look at this figure every day folks five year break evens uh but the problem is a lot of the websites they don't give you updates daily uh the bloomberg terminal does shout out to bloomberg love bloomberg they give you updates daily i mean by the minute on this stuff uh and i'm watching it all the time and the point is the five-year break-even rate which bond and the treasury uh inflation-protected security tips that uh peaked in about november and uh it has not gone higher over the past two and a half months if anything it's fallen which is crazy because if the the five-year break-even rate is falling that implies the bond market thinks that if inflation is going to come down not actually go up so if you think about this you have the bond market saying inflation is going to go down you've got the end of covid whenever that comes and maybe won't happen okay then this will be wrong but once covet ends inflation will go down it will go down uh then you've got the fact that people are going to cut back and if people cut back what does that do inflation goes down because people are spending less so prices have to come down right that will happen unfortunately though because the market is getting so revvy and so prepped for the disaster of the federal reserve raising rates which quite frankly isn't really that freaking big of a deal you know people think that oh my gosh if the fed raises rates to two percent the 10-year treasury's gonna go to like four percent and the housing market's gonna crash and everything no it doesn't have to happen if you look at history you can actually see that the the ten year uh has in the past during these rate hike cycles uh gone up a little bit leading into the federal reserve hiking rates and then it stops and when it stops the fed funds rate can actually go above for short periods of time what the five or 10-year treasury rate is which is insane because it's like wait a minute the fed funds rate could actually be higher than treasury yields so in other words there could be a ceiling to how high treasury yields could go yes there could be there is a ceiling to how high treasury yields can go so but the problem is what we have right now is so much massive fear uncertainty and doubt because we the markets don't know that the markets aren't certain that a inflation is going to go down it may not that's always possible but the problem is everybody seems to be pricing in oh oh that's it it's going to be a disaster prepare for a disaster it really feels like the market's trying to prepare for the worst and i really think things are going to be better but i can't guarantee that i don't have chris paul so i'm putting my money where my mouth is i'm investing as if things are going to get better but i do recognize that probably the next three months are gonna be ugly i hope not hopefully uh hopefully the december meeting was the most bearish for the federal reserve maybe not though we'll see there are expectations now that the federal reserve is going to surprise hike interest rates in january which if they surprise hike interest rates in january uh that that's going to crash tomorrow people are going to freak the f out if that happens so that would just be terrible if that happened uh beyond that uh i i don't think rates are going to get hiked in january we're still we're still in the taper process and the taper is not going to complete until march and the federal reserve has told us not that they can't change their mind but they've told us we will not raise rates until the taper is complete then the taper is not expected to be complete until march now it's possible that they just come out and say okay taper's done today uh that would be such a shock uh that all the indices will go down four or five percent this is my expectation if something like that happened but again i don't really expect that what could happen though prepare for that uh then you've got uh the march meeting so the march meeting is really what's going to be interesting because that's where the fan has forecast that they're going to raise rates once and that they could actually start the quantitative tightening cycle as well something special about that i'll talk about uh if they raise rates a quarter of a base or a quarter of a percent which is 25 basis points no big deal uh the market at this point has priced that in but why are we still seeing pain if the market's priced in that quarter percent well because now you've got people like bill ackman who's shorting the market uh you know coming out and saying you know what we should do shock and awe like we had in the 70s and 80s which is when the uh the government completely lost control of pricing it's mostly because they had price ceilings we don't do price ceilings anymore because they're an economic travesty and and when those price ceilings get removed and you go off the gold standard what do you end up with no faith in fiat which don't get me wrong i realize a lot of people don't have faith in fiat right now as is anyway that's fine but uh then you probably aren't in the stock market anyway then you're probably in crypto uh but the problem is even though crypto lately has been less volatile again we keep seeing the relationship between crypto specifically bitcoin and technology stocks get tighter and tighter and that's an issue because now it doesn't provide you that diversification probably the best diversification is uh quite frankly cash because it gives you that opportunity people always say cash is trash no cash is great this is why i went up to about 5.8 million of cash in november during the rally i mean i was taking 10 days left and right in november in hindsight i wish i took more but that's hindsight right hindsight's 20 20.
i wish i took more i wish i shorted more uh in november but i didn't so you know now the part that i left in the market or the part that i added to early in december uh i i on these recent purchases they're down it's no shame in saying that's part of the market okay but march uh markets expecting now or starting to price in this half percent increase well if we do end up getting a sharp decline in economic activity not to the point of recession but just in the point where people are paying back spending it's not risk not recession fears but paying back spending so i think you've got two extremes you've got one extreme which is just recession the other extreme is just continued insane spending and growth and that would cause hyperinflation right so one extreme is hyperinflation the other extreme is recession in my opinion uh and yes hyperinflation could also cause a recession on the other on the other side right so to both extremes you could have a recession i think we're gonna end up with something in the middle that is people cut spending inflation goes down and all these bad expectations that are being priced in the market eventually chillax a little bit uh that's the expectation but until we have the certainty of those results we're going to keep seeing pain uh that's the problem and so when people ask why is the market falling this is why it's because the market is pricing in that unknown uncertainty of how bad are things going to get oh my gosh what if the fed tapers early uh ends the paper early oh my gosh what if the federal reserve does shock and all like bill lackman says people are starting to prepare for that so they pull their money out and this is going to be one of the first periods of time in a very long time where you can't just buy the dip and then within 30 days expect prices to go back up like people are legitimately going to buy the dip and they will be upside down and that is gonna make them sad that is gonna make them feel like crap that is gonna make them feel stupid uh you know you'll get that feeling in your stomach like oh my gosh this sucks i'm a crappy investor the stocks i pick or crappy whatever right you get a feeling that pit in your stomach and uh and you almost you just want to sleep more it's kind of just like i just i just want to check out i don't want to do anything you know stop the pain how do you stop the pain you sell right which generally the worst things to do is trying to sell out of the bottom of the market uh but ultimately you got to do what what's right for you uh and and for your mentality but uh boy uh we're gonna keep having these bad expectations and uh we're gonna keep seeing this stuff get priced in uh i i think certainly until the federal reserve meeting and jerome powell talking on wednesday wednesday's gonna be a huge day uh jerome powell talking on wednesday's gonna help uh or her a lot personally i think he went super hawkish because of biden and there was a lot of political influence uh i made a short about how i've lost a lot of trust in jerome powell because i feel like he just you turned on the whole transitory thing and it was almost kind of like a rug pull not because he believes that he needed to u-turn i think it was political i think biden realizes like i'm not getting anything done if uh powell screws me by not being tough then i'm not gonna re-nominate him you know unless he gives me those blessings and if and see he can this is the funny thing about politics okay listen to this not only could uh biden say to powell hey i'm only gonna renominate you if you start getting tough on inflation and then paul's like okay i'll do it well it's always possible that powell could have just been like man if that i don't believe that i'll just i'll just go back to being dovish right but guess what biden can then go all right i'll just appoint five hawks to the board and and they'll do the tightening votes for me because it's not all up to powell right so the board biden's got a pick and nobody has picked five people you know he could have given him five hawks and uh and then powell would be hands tied so it's kind of like biden and powell had to have alignment and i really think biden realizes if he doesn't do whatever he can in his power to get inflation under control even the pieces that he wants of build back better aren't going to happen and if the pieces of buildback better aren't going to happen uh then then good luck in 2022 uh in in the midterms first of all we already expect this we think democrats are going to get reamed in the 2022 election uh and it's not political it's just what what expectations are right now and uh and then it biden might end up being a one-term president we you know we could end up with a with with desantis or abbott or or trump again in 2024 who knows that part doesn't matter that's so far out right now that doesn't matter but those are the fears that biden has right now so because he has to prove to people that he's fighting inflation and powell is his mouthpiece for that now part of me hopes and it's just hope that the december hawkishness was giving biden what he wanted i'm hoping that powell tones dials it back a little bit you know we've seen some inflationary statistics in the united states start rotating down which is good cpi came in at expectations month over month cpi came in below expectations fifty percent of expectations came into that point two percent as opposed to 0.4 which was really good pmi uh for services and manufacturing showed lower pricing pressures yeah you've got big pricing pressures in germany and other areas like that areas that have very rarely seen inflation uh you know the eurozone beat on inflation higher numbers bad uh germany just came out with an insane uh manufacturing survey uh but but we got to focus on america at least most of us here watching this caring about the the u.s stock market so all right uh this this to me means there is this potential this is sort of the bottom line of this there is the potential that powell goes back to being his dove as long as the indicators start rotating in the direction of reduced consumer activity which implies less inflation which we've already seen in addition to the the inflation measures i just talked about we've already seen uh consumer mobility plummet not only because people are going to the office a lot of people are working from home now more so than we thought but also because uh we're tracking tomtom apple and google mobility data and the beginning of january was a plummet like from december 28th to the beginning of january we had the biggest plummet a bigger plummet in mobility than what we saw in uh in the coveted winter of 2020 which is kind of insane to think about but but we did so uh bottom line if powell goes dovish i think we get massive rallies and at some point that will happen as long as covidents so let's make this crystal clear here we're gonna sit down for this okay we'll make this crystal clear sit down on the grass right here okay make it crystal clear as long as covet ends as long as covalent ends and we start getting a slowdown in economic activity but not to the point of recession then inflation will come down dovishness will come back to the fed and we'll get back to this balance the two extremes are we slow down too much we go into recession or we keep growing like crazy which seems less likely now we go to hyperinflation market crashes due to new recession i am betting on that middle road i am betting on dovishness comes back from powell because consumer data starts rotating down inflation pressures start rotating down and you go to link down below and sign up for masterworks check it out and thanks for watching bye
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