저자: KevinMahoney추정진행자 · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부의 '연소득 15만 달러 이하 소득세 면제' 목표를 재검토한 영상. Doge 절감액(약 180억 달러)과 Doge 배당으로는 재원이 크게 부족하며, 추정 재원 규모는 약 5,500~7,000억 달러(영상 내 6,600억 달러 제시)로 제시됨. 골드카드(500만 달러)·관세·외국 기업 세금 회피 차단 등으로 보충 가능하다는 Lutnick 주장을 소개하나 실현 가능성에 의문 제기. 미국 연방 정부 지출은 1913년 대비 약 296배 확대됐다고 비교.
다듬은 글
yesterday the Trump Administration told us no tax on under $150,000 of income per year is the goal mind you if you make exactly $150,000 a year you pay the government $337,000 that's just the federal government don't mind sales tax registration fees and all the other BS it's a lot of money people work hard for this money but there's been some talk about the realism of this and today we get some insights thanks to another interview with Mr lotnik we get some insights in terms of when we might expect this no tax on under $150,000 and we'll go through some of the realism of the claims so that way you can make an educated informed decision now in case you missed yesterday's video here's just a quick reminder of the 10-second clip of what the promise was and then I want you to hear the promise here which is is a goal he does make it clear it's a goal uh and then you could hear the follow-up comment today and how things are getting revised a little bit and where we stand now let's listen in this was yesterday I know what his goal is no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year that's his goal that's the goal that's what we heard now Martha McCullum who is a straight shooter she hits right to the core hey first thing hey you said no tax on $150,000 tell us some more about this also when we're going to get that in this video let's get into it here today great good to see you um so so what about that you said on CBS that President Trump wants no taxes on people making below $150,000 annually and um our sources are saying that the treasury Department uh doesn't have any plan to put that into action no no that's taking it out of context what we discussed was when the president balances the budget his first move is going to be uh he has suggested that he would like to wave taxes for people under $150,000 that's that's aspirational that when we balance the budget and let me tell you he's got a plan to balance this budget right we are going to take a trillion dollars out of the waste Fraud and Abuse of our all of our entitlements and all of our systems and all of our waste wait a second waste Fraud and Abuse a trillion dollars waste Fraud and Abuse this is important because so far we've been making some progress but it's been a little bit of one step forward two steps back that's because the government expenditures so far under the Trump Administration and through February have been the highest that we have ever seen so spending in February for any other February in history for the United States has been the highest ever now of course the Trump Administration argues that's because of the lingering programs of the B Administration and that's what they're trying to fix okay fine but spending has gone up now we do have Doge that's working to help and if we take Doge at what they say as 100% credible let's make that argument okay they claim right now they've saved about $18 billion in American taxpayer money which is great let's assume for a moment that they're 100% correct because there are allegations that they double count triple count they count old contracts that had already been cancelled they count uh you know as the same weight recurring and non-recurring contracts which you know that's important if we want no taxes $150,000 we need to save this money every single year so you know cutting a one-time expense is great but cutting a recurring expense like a salary for a de worker let's just say you know somebody working on implementing Dei that you know obviously uh is recurring that saves more money so let's say that doge is right and the amount that they've claimed of $18 billion of savings is accurate well that works out to about $16.88 per taxpayer in savings which is good but we're not quite yet there where we're making enough money to offset the taxes we're paying under $150,000 remember people making 150k $37,000 in taxes you obviously somebody making $50,000 a year is going to pay a significantly lower amount in taxes but still 116 bucks in total savings per American taxpayer $154 million of them not quite there and especially since the Doge dividend is talked about potentially being a 25% portion of this we kind of have to evaluate priorities here like we going to do 25% as a doge dividend then only 75% potentially goes to reduction of costs so 25% of Doge dividend by the way is 29 bucks and if they kept this cutting up that is every 6ish weeks they were able to cut $18 billion in savings then we can multiply this 29 doar to figure out an annualized Doge dividend uh by about 8.6 52 divided by 6 for 6 weeks says they could cut 18 times 8.6 times so basically $18 billion 16 or eight different periods what do we get with that well then we get $155 billion of cuts that's great that works out to a little bit more in terms of a doge dividend if we could get that kind of Doge dividend we're talking about $246 as a doge dividend still a far cry from being able to offset though the massive cost uh that that it would take to overcome to have no taxes on under $150,000 of income yesterday we estimated in our video that it would be about $660 billion so some estimates vary some are like 575 some are 550 some are 700 they vary my numbers are $660 billion to offset $560 billion of uh you know taxable income that well income that the government is generating from taxes we're going to have to do a lot more work than doge is currently doing now letnik suggest that's okay because we've got the green card or the gold card the new trump card coming you're going to hear him comment on this it's worth remembering what we talked about yesterday was there are2 million people with $10 million net worths or more around the world that aren't already in the United States something I didn't talk about yesterday is even if you tempted some people to do it you have to ask yourself does it make more sense to spend $5 million for the gold card and I know this is wrong and you shouldn't do it I'm just saying does it make sense to get married to a citizen in the US and do it basically for free you know plus the cost of your wedding you could have one hell of a glorious wedding for $5 million I'm just saying okay anyway uh so I I think there's High bar here for how many people are really going to go for this five Bill $5 million trump card I think what you'll find is you'll have a lot of people who want to sort of say oh I'm friendly with Trump you know I'm a Saudi Prince I don't even want or care about American citizenship but I have billions of dollars so let me go buy the gold card cuz it's cool I think that's going to be more of your customer than people who actually want to come over but anyway let's keep listening and then we are going to raise a trillion dollars that's the trump card the Trump gold card is going to be a huge Revenue producer tariffs are going to be a huge Revenue producer and then getting rid of all the tax scams like Ireland making $75 billion trade you know budget surplus we've got all the ships of the world having Liberian I mean imagine a Liberian flag so they get out of paying us taxes you cut all that stuff out you got to you know he's starting to sound more and more Trump every day you got a Liberian flag I can't believe they're flying the Liberian flag anyway I had to do that okay let me explain that quickly the reason I want to explain this stuff by the way is because I want you to be able to look at the these numbers or at least listen to these numbers and ask yourself does it sound realistic that we're going to be able to cut out taxes on those making under two or $150,000 a year and so far Doge does not quite get us there and and the numbers that I was doing for Doge we're assuming that Doge can do the same amount of cutting the rest of the year that they've done the first six weeks but usually what happens if you go around with the axe you're taking around the easy to cut stuff first the low hanging fruit and then it actually becomes harder and harder and harder to save more money without causing even more disruption so those are things that we have to be careful of so Doge we're also everybody is in support of government efficiency there's no doubt about that the problem is the more you got to cut deeper the more you're potentially getting closer to those vital organs right in addition to that some people wonder what what do they mean about Ireland and Liberia like why does this stuff keep coming up all right let's do a quick explanation so Ireland has has a corporate tax rate of 122% the United States has a corporate tax rate of 21% that's an 8 1.2% difference so what do multinational companies do that get revenues from a bunch of different places around the world they throw their headquarters in Ireland and then they pay Irish corporate taxes you know 12 a half% and they're like oh look at us we pay less in taxes because it makes sense why wouldn't you go where the taxes are the lowest if you know you could park your car or a car in Ireland and pay half the taxes you probably would park a car there as well because that car would pay for itself many times over this is obviously an extreme example the downside of potentially going after those companies is raising the costs for those companies and then would those C costs get potentially passed on to us now people like Warren Buffett say hey if the top 800 companies paid their fair share we wouldn't have to tax people because we'd have so much money in America but some of this goes into deductions and is it fair that when Amazon builds a factory they could take all these deductions and then pay less in income because they're building factories and creating jobs people go back and forth on this right like is it fair that Amazon doesn't pay income tax sometimes or right anyway topic for really for a different video the other thing though that Trump has proposed is actually lowering C corporate taxes in the United States down to 15% that would make that Irish spread only 22% instead of 82% which should make it more desirable to potentially just stay headquartered in the United States maybe you could capture more of those revenues in the United States uh however now you're going from 21% to 15% so now you're losing that of the companies that are willing to pay that 6% increase so how do you make that up this is a hard thing about government is like everything screws everything up like for example this Liberian ship scam okay this is in reference to like I Beria reducing registration and tonnage fees for ships uh as well as having limited beneficial ownership disclosures so it makes it easier for people to kind of hide their ownership of of uh you know basically cargo companies cargo shipping companies so this is also by the way why cruise ship stocks have been doing a little poorly in the last few weeks because letnik really been targeting the ship industry and the more he targets the ship industry the more people at cruise lines are like oh my gosh you know we take advantage of convenient labor laws because we fly either a Liberian flag or often what you'll see is like a Bahamian flag or jamaic whatever um and and one of the reasons you see that is because you have substantially fewer labor laws but you also have lower taxation for these ships based on the weight of the ships example you know in America as as soon as you work your I think it's the seventh day in a row you have to start getting paid overtime it's kind of like after eight hours of work you get paid time and a half after 12 hours you get paid 2x right that also works for consecutive days in a row well the problem with that is if you're on a cruise ship and you're on a three-month contract the cruise ships are used to not actually giving people a day off they give them many months off but you work every single day for the months that you're there so the style of business that you know they've aligned with would be screwed if you change some of these things so there's the potential downside to the cruise industry stocks that's why you're seeing those but there's also the potential that if you change some of these Liberian flag rules the costs for cargo go up and now all of a sudden you have tariffs increasing costs for goods coming into the country but also to move Goods around you increase the cost for those which could potentially increase cost for consumers so as usual when we actually like it's easy for politicians to spew stuff at us it's really hard to go one by one and go whoa whoa how much work is Doge really doing whoa whoa whoa how much is it really going to have to take to get to no income taxes on 150k well what do you mean Irish scam let's look into that there's a lot yeah maybe everything together can make it happen and that's why I think Martha goes right into okay when how long a balanced budget but on the way we're going to cut no tax on tips no tax on overtime and no tax on social security so how when should Americans expect a balanced budget by what is the goal on that smart next question I love that question think about it our objective is during President Trump's term over the next four years we are going to try to balance the budget now obviously the sooner we balance that budget the more we can all enjoy the possibilities that are exist under Donald Trump's presidency you know he would like to replace the Internal Revenue Service with the external Revenue Service and let all those countries who just Le on our Eon years you're saying it could it could take as long as four years but oh no no I don't want it to take four years we want it to take three we want it to take three and and obviously aspirationally I'd really like it to take two yeah two so they could maintain seats right because every every generally a president loses seats during midterms things just politics becomes unpopular so you lose seats by midterms and if they could get to no tax on 150k by midterms they'd probably gain seats so that he has the last two years to hammer away get rid of the Internal Revenue Service and start to replace it with a balanced budget but just to be clear on this um said that you know no taxes for people under $150,000 so you're saying that could happen in the next two years so I'm just looking at the numbers here the bottom 90% of U 90% of the US tax base is people under around $150,000 that's the way they lay it out that's $531 billion in federal taxes it's a quarter of all federal tax revenue so you're saying in 2 years we could be in in a position where people who make under 150k will pay no taxes in America well this is aspirational right when we balance the budget that is a move that the president all right that's fair so we got to get to the state of balancing the budget you know people like VI by the way have made the argument like oh you know we didn't used to have an income tax yeah well things have grown a little bit since then I'll give you some numbers here so you can see why it's problematic to l listen to things that sound good look what VI is saying sounds great it sounds wonderful oh no income tax at all oh that sounds great and he compares to a time where the majority of the time the US has been around uh we haven't had an income tax okay let's break that down after you hear it look in the long run I'm of the school of thought Sean that in the very long run in the United States I'd like to see the elimination of the income tax across the United States of America it was only in 1913 that we adopted an income tax for most of our national history we didn't have one I want Americans across the board to be able to keep as much of what they earn so they have an incentive to work an incentive to achieve but I do think in The Next Step a lot of states are going to have to step up and lead the way we sounds I think states can probably pull it off like California should not be taxing this much but we know they waste a lot on stupid things like a high-speed rail and homelessness that they don't end up solving we know there's a lot of waste in government but let's compare for a moment what our country was like back then versus now in 1913 which is the year that VI talked about our government's budget was around $720 million and you have to adjust that for inflation so today that's about $22.8 billion our government today compared to back then is almost 300 times larger 296 times larger to be exact that's insane now you might wonder like wait but like we want smaller government fair but what did we not have in 1913 didn't have social security Social Security began in 1935 21% of our government spending goes to Social Security today okay well I don't know that everybody wants to get rid of Social Security Medicare started in 1965 that's 15% of our spending Public Health 133% military 133% income security so like you know you're down on your luck I need some food stamps just to be able to survive 11% so the government has substantially increased its size in part because it's providing substantially more social safety NBS now we might be anti- those we might be Pro those ultimately that's your decision but we can't really compare to 1913 because we're not comparable at all to those numbers anymore doesn't mean there isn't there aren't things to fix but I want you to think about this from moment World War I you know how much that cost it was $32 billion back then over 4 years if you adjust that for inflation that's almost $900 billion in $225 okay well what's our current annual budget for the Department of Defense it's about $900 billion so that means back then we spent fighting World War I in four years what we spend in one year today so we have four times the military spending but military spending represents less than 3% of our economy this much like if this is our economy the width of the screen is our economy we spend like this much on Military today what did we spend on Military in on the military in World War I 52% 52% of the economy went to military spending so now when we put that together we're like okay well if 52% of our spending back then went to or or of our entire economy right all of GDP went to the military today it's only 3% that means we basically had a majority military economy back then and that's true I mean women were pumping lead in uh in factories to manufacture bullets and bombs we had a wartime economy everybody was based basically involved in the war effort super different than compared to today 3% of our dollars or 3% of our GDP as wartime uh uh spending so when we consider that it sounds nice what VI is saying but it misses some really key part you know I like this analogy that if we spend four times uh as much now as we did during World War I inflation adjusted then what I could really do is take 3% divided by 4 75 back then it was 52% of our GDP divided by 75 yeah right now our military spending uh or our economy compared to our military spending is 69 times larger than what it was back then just sort of another analogy to show you how huge everything has gotten I mean In fairness the United States back then like people were like oh well in the 19th century the United States was able to raise a lot of revenues through tariffs yeah but the government was a fraction of the size a government was like on10th the size of what it was in 1913 in the Civil War and that was also a wartime effort you know it grew 10x between the Civil War and World War I so you're really talking about a baby of a Government Federal Government I mean we still we're we're knocking on the door of the colonic era right where the colonies had to stamp Duty their own revenues so the federal government barely existed for what 70 years at that point 7 80 years so anyway these comparisons to history we have to be really careful about and I'm trying to provide you that Insight because even things that we take for granted today like police and fire and public schools which a lot of those are funded by local taxes right property taxes or sales taxes those didn't exist back then so again some explanations on how things are different let's listen to a little bit more letnik though has on his mind and that he has discussed balance the budget and then let's take care of all of the people like you said the 90% of Americans who are 150,000 or less that's why they elected Donald Trump that's why you've got Elon Musk and Doge you know everybody forgets why if you take a trillion out of the waste fraen abuse of our systems and then you have the tariffs leading what Donald Trump is leading with and then you produce drill baby drill right and then you have the trump card probably raising between 500 billion and a trillion dollars a year you've got a balanced budget you got a fundamental change of Amica yeah yeah just remember raising 500 to 1 trillion per year that means you've got to get to get to a trillion you've got to get to 200,000 people every year buying the gold card the Trump gold card so far Howard how many how many people well we are going to have a we're going to announce over the next two weeks a pilot program which is going to help Congress be able to score that in and help this reconciliation bill but we expect tens of thousands I mean just the inquiries I've had tens of thousand isn't 200,000 but okay tens of thousands of applications at $5 million each we are working our tailes off to balance the budget for the American people and for Donald Trump that's why the elected Donald Trump and he is working really hard at it you say the goal is in the first two years that would be when the midterm comes up so that would be a pretty big deal let me ask you about this I want to play this because Doug Ford and you are about to meet correct the premier from Ontario lot of heated conversation going back and forth I should dou for is coming and the Minister of Finance is coming so the central government is coming as well so Doug Ford was always a big Trump fan um but now he's saying that you know he feels that the United States has turned the guns on their closest Ally he says it's so disappointing I'm sure you're going to hear some of this in a few minutes from him that you are the US is attacking the families of Canada the food on their tables but here let's go do call for number one the back and forth between President Trump today and Doug for why yeah this this we don't need their cars we don't need their energy we don't need their Lumber we don't need anything they have we're your largest customer there's no one that buys more Products off the United States than we do you're going to be paying a lot more for everything right across the board because you can't get aluminum anywhere else you only produce you can okay I'm going to summarize the rest of this first of all the UAW the United Autos Workers Union they want more tariffs why because tariffs are protectionist and they help protect union worker jobs the problem is you've got less than half a million Union Auto Workers that actually work right now you've got maybe 700,000 UAW retirees so you're paying a lot of retire benefits for UAW Auto Workers uh but that's redundant UAW anyway uh but you've got about 400,000 people who are actively working less than half a m let's go with half a m for for a moment half a million actual workers divided by the workforce that we have today of 154 million is less than onethird of 1% of workers so to protect the auto worker what you're doing is you are helping one less than 1third of 1% of workers in America at the cost of the other 99 and 23% because they might have to pay for more expensive cars that's the idea of this right that n usmca uh you know aluminum trade and existing Supply chains made everything more efficient and cheaper over time so the consumer could benefit when we want to rebuild those Supply chains what we do is what happened during covid we raise costs because we break Supply chains we raise costs we have to rebuild them we have to Reg globalize and all of that is hard it takes time consider for example an an aluminum you know electrolysis plant for example it takes massive energy infrastructure it takes massive Investments and probably take somewhere around 2 to 3 years to actually get done so all that said some of the things we're hearing here they sound good but when we actually look at the numbers there are some problems anyway thanks so much for watching I hope you found this Insight helpful and we'll see you all
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