Should You Buy Micron Stock Before June 26? | MU Stock Analysis

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마이크론은 AI 확산으로 메모리·스토리지 수요가 증가하는 반도체 업황 상승 국면에 있음. 2분기 실적이 가이던스를 크게 상회했고, 3분기 매출 66억달러·매출총이익률 25.5% 전망. 2024년 DRAM 수요 증가율 중반 10%대, NAND 20%대 중반 전망. 주가는 선행 PER 15.94배 수준으로 크게 저평가되진 않아, 실적 발표 전 매수보다 발표 후 매수가 저위험이라는 견해.

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01. hey everyone Micron Technology is slated to report quarterly Financial results on Wednesday June 26th and investors are curious if they should buy Micron stock before the company announces earnings so I'll answer that question in this video I'll also provide a preview of what investors can expect from Micron when it does announce those earnings result in its previous quarterly earnings results which Micron announced on March 20th the company said Revenue increase to 5.82 billion and that was a big jump from the 3.69 billion the company reported in the same quarter the prior year Micron operates in a cyclical industry its revenues and profits go up and down based on the cyclicality of the industry right now Micron is on the preus of a big upturn in the industry especially as artificial intelligence is increasing the computing power requirements within devices including telephones computers laptops iPads Etc and so the demands from these devices for in increasing memory increasing storage are going to be great news for the industry in which Micron participates and so microns can benefit from that uptrend as well now in the second quarter the company's results gross profit margin and EPS were well above the high end of the company's guidance and that's been the story with Micron so far is the results are coming in much better than it expected coming into the year Micron was forecast ing low single digigit growth in personal computer sales it looks like that's coming in better than expected initially Micron told investors it was not going to increase manufacturing capacity but just a couple of weeks ago it did announce that it was indeed going to increase manufacturing capacity after all because demand is coming in much stronger than Micron anticipated in just a few short months so their their product portfolio positions us well to deliver a strong second half of 2024 We Believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of this multi-year opportunity enabled by artificial intelligence and that's what I was talking about earlier artificial intelligence is increasing the computing power needed on these Edge devices and so these devices are are going to want to have more memory more storage more capabilities than prior generation Cycles so that's going to create a boost in demand for micron's memory and storage units now in terms of what to look for for the next quarter Micron told investors to expect revenue of 6.6 billion and gross profit margin of 25.5% the revenue number of 6.6 billion would be up from the 5.8 2 billion in the previous quarter and the gross profit margin of 25.5% would be up from 18.5% in its previous quarter so both of these numbers will be better than what the company delivered in the second quarter the earnings per share meanwhile will be less the diluted earnings per share of 17 cents expected would be a decrease from the 71 cents the company delivered in earnings per share in the previous this quarter looking at the longer term Outlook Micron told investors that calendar 2023 Dr bit demand growth was in the low double digigit percentage range and storage or nand bit demand growth was in the low 20 percentage range so both a few percentage points higher than previous expectations this was in 2023 demand came in higher than expectations for their big segments right dram and nand so for 2024 they are forecasting demand growth for the industry to be near the long-term compound annual growth rate for Dram which is around mid teens for nand and given the higher Baseline of 2023 demand these expectations for 2024 have driven an increase in the absolute level of 2024 demand for both drram and nand versus their prior expectations so in other words demand is coming in better than they had thought even though they had thought that revenue and demand was going to be increasing in the double digit Range High double digit range but now it's even better than expected and over the medium term demand growth of mid teens for Dam and low 20 percentage in nand so solid rates of growth for the medium term right mid teens is 14 15 16% % and low 20% range is something like 20 21 22% growth for these two critical components for micron and given that they're recovering from the bottom end of the cycle this growth is going to deliver surging revenue and profitability I S I should say surging profitability for micron because they're coming off of that bottom and so they're going to utilize more of their capacity and that's going to going to lead to strong economies in scale which Micron has demonstrated before to boost profitability so as I highlighted if you look back for a decade in Micron you can see the cyclicality of the business right ups and downs with the cycle that's normal for micron and right now you could see it bottomed and now it's on that uptrend right the company forecasting strong growth and you've already seen evidence of the turnaround in its revenue and so you're already starting to see that in its cash flow from operations it bottomed out in the end of the previous cycle and it's now returning to the up cycle and the company at its peak can deliver very strong cash flow from operations to sales hitting 60% levels in 18 2019 2018 so I wouldn't be surprised if in this cycle it jumps back over 40% cash flow from operations to sales as this cycle develops right this AI wave this AI investment is not just a you know onetime thing this is creating an increase in demand several years going forward and that's going to benefit Micron Technology for several years according to what management is saying and operating profit margin similar story here you see the cyclicality with the most recent downturn being the most severe given the big decrease in sales for personal computers tablets Etc electronic devices overall because of the boom cycle in 2020 2021 then the big bust cycle because people were spending more money away from home not buying as much Electronics these are long lasting Goods right if you buy a if you buy a personal computer or laptop or a tablet or a smartphone you're going to use these for at least a couple of years in most cases and so if you buy one in 2020 and 2021 you're probably not going to buy in 2022 or 2023 so that created a big gap in demand and a big cyclical downturn and now as those products will need replacing and upgrading that's when Micron is going to benefit because now unlike two three years ago these devices are going to want incrementally more storage and incrementally more dram because of artificial intelligence to run some of these AI models these AI apps these AI enabled devices are going to need more computing power and that's going to be great news for Micron Technology so the 5.94% the stock after earnings the days after an earnings release make a stock extremely volatile there's violent price movement surrounding the stock and unless I feel a stock is so undervalued that it's you know prudent to buy it before or maybe split it up I usually give the advice of saying it's always more prudent to buy after earnings Micron I don't think the stock is undervalued significantly enough to require buying ahead of the earnings release I think whatever you see out of Micron in the earnings results even if they're better than expected and the stock price jumps let's say by 20% that stock price jump is going to be because of better than expected results and so you're still going to be getting a good value to get Micron stock even after earnings so I don't feel you need to rush in here and buy it before earnings even though I do have micron rated as a top 25 stock if you're on the fence about buying before or after I would suggest buying after earnings as it's a lower risk moment you again