저자: Kevin · 외국인
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3월 31일 발표된 2월 PCE 지표가 예상보다 양호해 인플레이션 완화 기대를 밝힘. 근원 PCE 월간 0.3%(예상 0.4%), 전년비 4.6%(예상 4.4% 상회 표현 있음), 서비스 물가 월 0.2%로 둔화, 상품 물가 0%. 연준 긴축 지속 가능성과 신용 긴축을 언급하며 '일시적 인플레' 가능성에 낙관. 1월 수치는 계절조정 왜곡으로 해석.
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now though we gotta talk pce we've got the pce numbers coming out right now and the pce numbers that we are looking for inflation numbers that is the fed's preferred inflation gauge personal income comes in slightly higher at point three the expectation was 0.2 personal spending comes in slightly lower at point two versus point three waiting right now for the inflation gauge which is the deflator month over month year over year we still don't have that number that number should be out in just a moment remember link down below you can get into those lifetime access for as little as thirty dollars uh monthly I believe it's somewhere in the thirty dollars month there it is the deflator numbers and we have deflator month over month matches 0.3.3 okay we got a match deflator year over year comes in a little lower let's go 5.0 versus 5.1 expected 5.4 prior excellent excellent oh we got a revision down on the prior as well and we got a revision down on the prior month over month deflator from 0.6 to 0.5 this is fantastic good news good news we've got pce core deflator month over month yes we gotta Miss point three it comes in low 0.3 versus the 0.4 core expected this is great especially on the heels of Europe the European Union just saw core prices Accelerate from 5.6 to 5.7 percent above the expectation of 5.6 in Europe so this is really good uh I mean obviously it's not a plummeting but it's below expectations thank goodness thank goodness the last thing we need is more runaway inflation pce deflator year over year comes in at 4.6 the expectation and prior were both sitting at 4.7 this is excellent so what do we have we have a little bit more income for people fantastic 0.3 versus 0.2 that is good people however are saving a little bit more personal spending comes in at point two versus point three real personal spending negative 0.1 you have that deflator month over month matching expectations for uh your headline your headline year over year coming in one tenth below at five percent we're almost in that four percent range let's go uh and you got a prior revision down again of that headline number to five three from five four which is great and then that month over month number very very important core pce deflator the fed's favorite numbers here folks comes in under expectations 0.3 versus the 0.4 expected 4.6 uh for the year over year instead of the 4.4 expected and we got a revision down on that month over month uh core deflator number this is fantastic let's listen to CNBC for a moment while I pull up the actual report up the Dow was up about 90.
it's up 130 not huge yeah boy saying that Bitcoin moved from under 28 000 back above uh 28 000 and then as you can see the 10-year was 355. it's now 352 or so uh in the two-year uh also has the yield has has backed off a little bit but uh Steve said let's get reaction to this data from time I'm excited to beat a fellow for the Hoover institution he's a good fellow and I love when we say a fellow we got distinguished fellows Good Fellows that's a whole different thing uh Tyler great movie though and former acting chair of the Council of economic advisors all right these introductions always take forever uh let's just go ahead and get to the report it's pulling up give me just one moment here uh again this is the fed's preferred inflation measure this is fantastic news we're going to look at the actual uh document now uh it's darn iPad stand by five seconds it goes fast okay it's right here all right so here's the personal income uh increase 79 point or 72.9 Bill 0.3 percent personal spending Rose Point two percent this gives us a chart of uh basically the numbers that we just looked at so if you want to take a screenshot uh Now's the Time oh wait uh can I put a banner up no I can't do it right now that's it anyway all right so uh the increase in cursive current personal income in February was led by an increase in compensation mainly from wages and salaries but no no sign of really a wage price spiral here right it's okay that wages are still going up I want people to remember that when you hear the words wages are going up that's not a bad thing we want wages to go up we just don't want them to spiral out of control and by no measures or wages spiraling out of control by no measures zero there's not a single piece of evidence that suggests the wage price spiral is coming and I say that very passionately because I want to make sure you could be in a position where where if we're playing Halo together all you hear is this game the lead that's it that's all I want to hear gain the lead okay like we we want good news but look if all of a sudden this is what's the lead you know we need to know about it we need to get together we need to get you know off our Bud we need to do something about it the good news is we're in the lead right now okay we don't have a wage price file no no indicators of a wage price spiral none uh and and if you don't believe uh if you don't believe it send me some data because I I don't see it just because Walmart raised wages because they lag doesn't mean Walmart's creating a wage price spiral what it means is Walmart's gonna suck over the next year in my opinion uh personal outlays increased okay prices uh let's see if we can get some price detail here um let's go into the charts all right related materials so let's get the full release with the tables I want all of the tables please that way I could look at uh the pieces inside of the report uh and see by the way heart goes out to that journalist in Russia who uh was just arrested from The Wall Street Journal did you know that his last piece that he wrote was basically a hit piece on the Russian economy talking about how not only has the Rupal Fallen like 20 but they're basically running out of cash in Russia and their economy is about to collapse like it doesn't surprise me that he posted that from Moscow and he was basically immediately arrested don't you all remember when they started the war in Ukraine they're like um if anybody talks crap about us we're gonna arrest you like they gave a fair heads up I feel and it's it's still terrible like I don't there's no way I think this guy from The Wall Street Journal should have been arrested but um but yeah that was ballsy man that like that's some straight up balls right there wow uh and now this is what they're doing to him in jail kept brainwashing all right so what do we got seasonally adjusted rates give me give me percentages these numbers are ridiculous here we go this is what I want all right so February point three percent increase in wages supplements to wages uh that's over here on the right side you can see this that's all point three percent that's good Proprietors income uh okay whatever what do we have over here oh that's gonna piss off some people rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment uh one point four percent that's a pretty dang big move here under the rental income segment now uh what What's fascinating about this is we expect widely expect that the uh real estate price slow down so still to be seen in both pce which Real Estate makes up about 25 percent of pce and uh and about 34 percent of CPI we I widely still expect that to come plummeting down it was just yesterday that uh maybe it was the day before yesterday but Neil kashcari comes out and says the rent deflation is coming rents are going down so so it's coming which is good uh all right so personal income on uh receipts on assets 0.2 fine personal current transfer c8.5 whatever personal consumption expenditures there's really no good data here like give me give me like the full chart the full breakdowns this gives us some more headlines okay let me try to get some other supplemental charts this these charts are done a little bit differently from CPI so they don't as easily give us all of the uh the various different uh components oh here we go what is this seasonally adjusted in a quarterly rates no okay let me listen to CBC for a sec we'll figure this out I would not break out champagne bottles um as you know economists are want to do quite often Joe but but I would say you know maybe we can think that things are headed in the right direction again which is what you would think would happen after these very strong interest rate increases by the fed and the question becomes what does this say about how far the FED has to go when you have a good number maybe you can think something less is needed pile on top of that with Tyler and both Megan we're talking about which is what's going to happen to the credit Channel and maybe inflation uh is is looking a little more optimistic this morning than it was at 8 29.
all right more oh you're thinking I got it I got what I was looking for right here this is what I was looking for services okay this is really important so Services uh seasonally adjusted monthly rate for February Services point two percent thank God look at that look at the last months folks thank freaking God look at the last months okay look at this look at this January 1.2 percent for pce services December 0.6 November 0.4 October 0.5 and remember if you multiply these by 12 you could see how hellish this is that's six percent inflation that's 4.8 percent that's seven point two percent that's that's like a lot I can't even do the math on that that's 12 plus 2 times 1.2 2.8 that's like 14.4 or something like that that's crazy those are some crazy inflation rates right on on Services right here that's exactly where we do not want to see services are they seasonally adjusted monthly rates but look at what we have right here boys and girls 2.4 percent that right there calls for celebration and a mention that you should get 12 restocks using Weeble by going to metcaven.com Weeble and by getting kevin.com life this that's actually probably the best line out of this entire report right here this is fantastic that's very very good so I like to see that uh so really nice move there on uh service says okay personal income disposition uh uh let's see then you got expenditures yeah these are Goods expenditures so Goods expenditures actually came in at zero so we've had Goods deflation before see this over here there in November December is your goods deflation here's Goods deflation in in July and August as well but look what happened in in December and January and uh or sorry in January you had 3.6 that's insane that was why everybody freaked out about the January numbers right and then what do you have here zero so you literally have no inflation in Goods right now and not only that uh but you have uh uh you know Services inflation plummeting I mean this is absolutely fantastic I like this report this is a very good report uh let's let's take a look at how uh El stacos are doing so let's go over here let's see here okay so we got the QQQ is up about a quarter of a percent I'm actually surprised it's not up more than that because these are some pretty good numbers I mean you did get a pop-off so let's go ahead and show you the strut bottom uh push that button uh and then see because it's green what do we do gain the lead uh Tesla is uh up at points uh about up about three quarters of a percent GameStop lost the lead they're a little negative here uh anything moving largely let's see any big remote uh big moves here uh dwac is still up about nine percent uh that's you know with the Trump indictment yesterday we expect a lot of users to kind of track Trump on Truth social but but yeah this is actually a very good reaction I mean well it's it's a modest reaction it's a good report it's listening here that it might be just shown in the price or the interest rate of debt yep I would say if you look at the senior loan officer surveys they suggest that actually lending standards have tightened already by the end of January pretty massively up to where we've been at peaks in previous recessions so there is a question about how much more they really are can or will Titan um and if you look at why the bone the banks in the U.S got into trouble it's not really because yeah I mean she's basically saying and I've heard this argument quite a bit over the last few weeks basically saying look the banking tightening has already happened like there's not going to be much more and so I think the way to put this is is very simply this is a fantastic pce report it should make you very excited about transitory inflation potentially actually becoming true now we don't want to get blindly drunk over this right and expect that that's it the problem's over the FED is going to have to keep telling us that rates are going to stay high to psychologically convince markets that crap the fed's Gonna Keep the foot on our neck and they're going to drown honest in the mud of a recession but that's exactly the kind of pressure that they need to keep on us to keep getting reports like this because that January report which I think I said 17 000 times the January reports were a horrible month of seasonal adjustment bad news but this report this fed report helps to show that that was just a nonsensical January seasonal adjustment Report with a big pull forward into January now actually something we talked about with course members yesterday we went deep into some thoughts on Google yesterday but we actually noticed a little bit of an advertising hiccup uh details in the course member livestream from yesterday but we noticed an advertising hiccup in March thanks to the banking crisis and that could end up leading to some misses on revenues for some ad companies uh thanks to some changes in spending we were seeing in uh in about mid-march so interesting but that also has implications for some of the uh the retail companies which we think potentially did extremely well because of uh the inclusion of January I I challenge you to do this this is another thing we were talking about we did a fundamental analysis on Lululemon I challenge you to do this look at when Lululemon's calendar for the fourth quarter ends in other words why did they do so well on their last report look at what the last month is of the last quarter uh that they reported and uh and you should go I see what they did here not not to cast too much shade but it is it is very interesting very convenient so um with that scent that gives us an update on the inflationary numbers this is the fed's preferred inflation gauge and they're good this is fantastic no Goods inflation soft Services inflation and numbers that came in below expectations these are great these should motivate you to think about building your wealth in this Nike Swoosh recovery by using the services link down below whether it's buy now pay later or pay in full to get the courses on building your wealth check those out as well as my real estate startup houseac.com thanks so much thank you
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