저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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팔란티어 주가가 CEO의 12억 달러 지분 매도 발표와 펜타곤 예산 삭감 보도로 14% 하락. 정부 매출 비중이 크나 상업 매출 성장이 더 빨라 영향은 제한적. 선행 PER 162배로 여전히 매우 고평가되어 현 시점은 매수 기회가 아니며 더 나은 진입점을 기다려야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
paler stock fell 14% today after the CEO there was an announcement that the CEO would be selling $1.2 billion of his own shares in paler stock then things got worse when there was a report from The Washington Post that the Pentagon will be forced to implement spending cuts and of course paler gets a great percentage of its revenue from government contracts so all of that sent share prices down 14% on the back of that news but investors are now curious is this a buying opportunity right paler stock has been soaring and investors have rarely had an opportunity to buy on a dip here so is this that opportunity should investors Buy on this dip I'll answer that question in this video after discussing the new paler stock this is today's price action in paler stock it's down 13.9% it's down a little bit more in the aftermarket hours following trading action on the day now like I highlighted the company's G government business is very important the US government business is very important and you compare it to its us commercial Revenue which was 214 million government revenue was 343 million that was up 45% but more than just the revenue it generates palente contracts with the government have been a strong signal to businesses to employ paler Services because businesses look at that US government revenue and they say well if the US government trusts paler with these important defense contracts then we should consider paler also and so if the government business declines because of budget cuts in the Pentagon that could be one less source of signaling for paler although I don't think paler needs it anymore I think paler has grown to a sufficient scale where it doesn't need that signal anymore where paler can go into Enterprises now them demonstrate their capability and secure sales in that fashion and so the government business while maybe 5 years ago it was a critically important part of its overall strategy today it's not as critical and you can see already the commercial business is growing faster than the government business and overall there is more opportunity in Enterprises than there is in governments there's only so much you can get with governments because there's a limited amount of governments a limited amount of government institutions whereas Enterprises is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for paler in the long run so there's a bit of give and take here the news is not good news in terms of the potential budget cuts in the Pentagon it's not good news for paler but it's not as devastating as it would have been let's say 5 years ago because of how successful they've been in the veloping that commercial Revenue business okay the next thing I wanted to talk about is the CEO share sale so paler CEO is going to plan on selling $1.2 billion of company stock and that's never a good sign but sometimes it's not a very bad sign sometimes what I like to say is if a owner has so much of his or her wealth inside of the business that creates a sort of risk aversion attitude from the owner sometimes let's say you're an owner of that business and your entire family's wealth let's say you're worth $10 billion but it's all in the company's stock like all of your wealth is in the company's stock then you might become a little risk averse right you don't want to make any decisions that could cost your family's wealth by the billions and multi-billions of dollars and so diversifying away from some of your shares is you know not not such a bad thing as it seems right the Optics are terrible the Optics are terrible because just a few weeks ago paler CEO was going on about how successful their company is how they're delivering things that other companies can only dream about delivering and how valuable and successful the business is going to be in the long run and after saying all of those things you go out and you make this $1.2 billion sale of the shares it almost seems like like if you're if you're an observer and you don't think about it too deeply it almost seems like the CEO is pumping up the stock to get the price to go up and then selling it to take advantage of that higher share price that's what it seems like from the outside looking in but if you think a little more deeply about it these are things that the CEOs need need to do right I've talked similarly about when nvidia's CEO did a similar share plan uh sell share plan sale you know getting rid of some of the shares so that all of his family's wealth is not tied into one business and locked into that one business and so I I don't mind these I know there's another side of the investor community that says no I want my CEO to be Allin and everything to be relying on this business I want them to live or died by the results of this business and I can understand that argument but there's also the other side of the argument where you want the CEO of the business making effective decisions you don't want them to be risk averse in their decision making because there's billi billions and tens of billions of dollars of their own personal wealth riding on the line and so I'm okay with these decisions to sell the stock but at the same time I would prefer if CEOs would not be hyping up their share prices I'm not a big fan of that I understand that's the one of the CEO's jobs is just to go around and hyping up the share price and talking about how valuable they think their company is and how their company stock is going to go up and they're going to be supremely successful I'm not a big fan of that but I understand they need to they need to do those decisions I'd rather have the CEO just come out and share with me the results that the company is achieving and leave it at that don't tell me that you think the share price is going to go up to the trillions of dollars like some CEOs do I don't need I don't need that I could do without it just tell me how your business is performing and let me make the judgments about where the stock is going to go in the future whether or not I want to own this business so now speaking about valuation paler stock is supremely expensive even after this drop it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 162 that's very very expensive it's a great business to be sure but it's trading at a price in my opinion well above the intrinsic value of the business it's trading at a level that already incorporates nearly all of its positive prospects for the next 5 years and so even after the drop the 2 so I wouldn't see this as a buying opportunity if the forward price to earnings ratio were to fall very significantly then I would consider that a buying opportunity and the forward price to earnings ratio doesn't need to fall because the market price Falls right there's two sides of this there's the numerator and the denominator the numerator is the market price the denominator is the earnings per share so the forward price to earnings could fall because the company's earnings prospects improve and so if I see that and I see its earnings prospects improve and that lowers the forward price to earnings that could be a buying opportunity as well so as an investor that's on the sidelines that's waiting for an opportunity to buy palente your stock that's another thing that you can look for is improvements in the earnings per share prospects for the long term not just market price decreases what you saw in this video or what you you saw in this news is two things you saw the market price drop considerably but the news that the Pentagon could be decreasing their budget is news that will lower paler earnings per share prospects in the long run the probabilities of their earnings per share growth just decreased because of that news if indeed the P Pentagon does decrease those budgets so you saw a decrease in the in the numerator but you're also seeing a decrease in the denom minator in the earnings per share expectations for the next year and 5 years so you got a bit of both in this development so in summary unfortunate news for paler stock investors but that's okay because you've had such a great run this stock has just performed so well in the last year so you've probably made great Returns on this investment and so a 10% drop should be not too big even though it doesn't feel good a 10% drop is not such a big thing if you've already gained so much in the last year with this stock but I wouldn't see this as a buying opportunity I would keep waiting uh for a better entry with paler stock
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