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VijayKedia

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At what profit should I sell the shares | Vijay Kedia | Govind Parikh #sellstock #warrenbuffet

Undermoney · 2025-01-19 · 유튜브 시청 541 · Board Views 5 · International

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저자: VijayKedia · 외국인

요약 보기

주식 매도 시점은 경영진 방향 변화(예: 설탕→우유→비스킷 확장)와 밸류에이션이 비합리적으로 높아질 때라고 설명. 설탕·비료 같은 경기순환 업종은 원가 관리, 농가 정산 방식, 강우 등 상대적 우위가 있는 기업을 골라 장기 보유하는 전략을 강조. 인도 비료 정책(요소비 보조금 vs 인산비료)이 바뀌면 코로만델 같은 기업에 큰 호재가 될 수 있다고 봄.

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01. would you sell a company yeah of course I think there are two places where you can sell your stock uh one is when the focus of the management changes as as you said that J I bought and they wanted to buy uh sugar companies and both are cyclical right so I thought ke that's this is not the reason that I bought J te then later on they thought of buying some milk company so I thought now they are going to make some tea stall kind of things you know from tea to sugar sugar to milk so then biscuit Starbucks India then biscuit Factory so I so I I sold my stocks because that was because man the perception of the management has changed and second uh uh when you can sell your stocks when the valuation of your stock becomes so high that it is irresistible for example atoto uh when I bought that time maybe the P was 5 or six or something or whatever it is at one point of time p ratio of atoto was 45 whereas the leaders baj Autos p ratio was 25 so that was irresistible to me so that is why I sold uh unsustainable something that you feel would be unsustainable yes of course 45 for a automobile company for a three-wheeler company for a smaller size company is of course irresistable it never happened so far I think in my history so that was irresistible illogical yeah so I heard that quote you know you should sell when either the markets go mad or the promoters go mad so that is okay that's that's interesting so that's about exiting right the other thing I want to ask about is buying good companies in tough sectors and sugar is one sector that confuses everybody you know you lose a lot of money in Sugar the Cycles some people can time it some people can't time it B I want you to come in on that because you've bought good companies in tough sector sugar fertilizers you bought Eid Parry you bought coramandel uh how do you Wade through some of these tough sectors actually coramandel is not in sugar fertilizers and sugar both yeah no they don't have sugar but we we bought Eid P we've been holding for a long time it's it's got It's got very deep value in the company each Eid par share holds a corund share so if you see the discounting is so big question number one I mean issue number one the second thing is you see the management in sugar I was told that a lot of or most of the bill owners are you know little cheats when the farmer comes with a lry you know they say 10 ton lry they say it's about 9.6 9.5 like that they make money on that first and then they keep making money they don't pay the farmers where Eid Parry has got a system where a l comes in immediately a SMS will go to the owner that in the next one and a half hours your L is going to be weit so you please send somebody so he is a farmer is assured that he is going to get uh 10 tons for for his 10 tons money he'll get for his 10 tons second thing is they have a policy of uh crediting the farmer on the 14th day they have zero are in fact some of the executives I met they said we are fools actually all over India everybody has got can areas we have zero areas but these things help in bad times when there is you know less rainfall I mean Tamil Nadu there's not been rainfall at all last 2 three years so in these times when others are having 80% say 60 70% shortage of cane these people will have 30 40% shortage of cane plus the Comfort level is so much in the company that you know and coral is growing very well fertilizer industry I mean uh I think the problem in fertiliz I mean I can talk at length on that it may be boring for everybody but fertilizer basically the policies have to change the phosphatic fertilizers and UA Ura is subsidized and phosphatic is not subsidized so government can do that in the first year it's very difficult to raise the Ura prices you know so once that happens this corund become a you know huge story it may happen you know in the next government comes to power because continuous usage of UA it spoils the you know soil where you have to use Dap You to use dap only but because UA is subsidized and it's very cheap Farmers tend to do that and Modi knows that very well and I think in the next government hopefully when he comes or any other government comes I think they will have to do that ultimately we have to look at Progressive things you know we can't go back

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