저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 주식은 최근 변동성에도 여전히 리스크 대비 보상이 좋으며, 지수는 신고가 방향으로 갈 수 있다는 낙관론. 고용지표는 예상을 크게 상회했지만 여전히 실업률이 높아 정책(추가 부양)은 지지받을 것으로 봄. 연준도 과도한 긴축보다 과소 대응 위험이 크다고 봄. 시장 회복 국면: S&P500 3월 저점 대비 50%, 이후 76% 되돌림을 넘어섰고, 과거 회복 패턴상 신고가 가능성을 언급. 단기 조정은 바람직하다고 보나 시장 내 대기 자금(사모펀드 현금, 기관 자금)이 많아 하락은 제한적일 것으로 봄. 경기 민감주(항공, 카지노, 크루즈, 레스토랑, 소매)가 과도하게 하락해 회복 여력이 크다고 봄. 아메리칸항공 등 일부는 이미 급등했으나 추가 기회 존재. 카니발, 제너럴다이내믹스, 스냅온, TJX 등 17개 아이디어 언급. 항공주 급등 및 ETF 자금 유입, 개인투자자 강세 베팅은 투기 거품 우려를 낳지만, 실물 기업이 회복하면 문제없다고 봄. 다만 하드히트 산업 중 일부(라스베이거스 등)는 2023년까지 정상화가 어려울 수 있음. 코로나 2차 확산 위험: 집회 등 슈퍼 전파 이벤트가 있으나, 지역별 추적 결과 경기민감주가 버티고 있어 2차 파동 위험은 줄어든 것으로 해석. 출연자 전망: 주식시장 신고가 가능성 및 경기민감주 강세 지속 전망.
다듬은 글
a lot of people in just a few months ago I had not seen this coming luckily for us today we have a market guest that did see this coming I want to bring on to start the show fun strat Global Advisors Tom Lee joins us right now and when we look at this Tom it's hard to say you've been right for so long but I'm gonna highlight some things that you've been right about keep in mind and back when we were in freefall back in March when the S&P was at 20 to 60 Tom said that we would see a snap back to 2,800 by April that was right when he said that we crossed recovering about 50% of the losses that we saw since February that the games would only accelerate just like we saw back in O nine that was right and now Tom you're calling for returned all-time highs and as we said pretty close to those it looks like that is the momentum right now but I want to start in terms of if you were so contrarian to get to this point with the jobs number right now I'm wondering if you might be a little bit contrarian you're thinking now because this this jobs report blowing away expectations does that possibly maybe get the fed and you know congressmen and women right now thinking that there is no need for an additional way of stimulus what do you say about the jobs number we got today yeah is that that's a good point you know good news is good news until it's bad news I think Congress is still dealing with the fact that we have record unemployment and so even if it's a beat and it was a nice really a shocking beat for this for the main payrolls I think phase 4 still has a lot of support because at the end of the day you know we don't you know millions of Americans aren't working and the Fed similarly with a Main Street program and the idea that the consequences of maybe overshooting our miss batas is really under shooting and we saw what happened in December when the Fed moves you know kind of too much in the wrong direction so I I think stocks are still good and rich rewards here despite that maybe and maybe the move this past week well let's talk a little bit more of that risk reward right because as I said when we cross this the 50% tradesmen line you would have pointed out that most of the recoveries that we've seen in the past have indicated that that is an all-clear signal now as we move past the 76 percent retracement line what does that say about the recovery here to get to all-time highs how sure you that this insane step higher that we've seen over the last few weeks we continue to not necessarily see what's I guess what I'm asking is what's the propensity in your mind for maybe a short-term pullback here I think I pull back you know I'd love to see it pull back because I know that people would rather see a market that is two-way one that you know pulls back on dips so that it doesn't feel they're unforgiving you know but there's so much money on the sidelines you know I you know there's five trine of monthly market to trillion of private equity cash orbits raised another trillion you have a trillion dollars that's flying into corporate equities and I know that in our many conversations with our clients this past week I would say about half are still uncertain on the sidelines because the market has moved with such vigor but the economic data maybe with the exception today has it has really just been muddling and I think maybe today will be a call to action actually to get some of the money on the sidelines oh yes you know the pushback is pretty sound when we think about the trend turning here for sure and the surprise of the jobs number we got today still very impressive when you think about how the trend has been you know just terrible economic data getting worse and worse but still by historical standards I mean we're still not sitting in a strong economic position when you look at the fact that we still have lost 42 million jobs over the last ten weeks you think about how much of that is here now I mean the fact that we recover to this point long term how is that gonna play out when you think about what happens when you get to the end of the year and you're still are sitting at what economists are expecting to be a 10 percent unemployment rate which was the worst of the o 8:09 recession yeah it's tragedy um you know part of the reality is it's 75% of the ESPYs market cap is our bond proxies you know they're defensive or secular growth they don't move with the economy that 25 percent the epicenter stocks have been destroyed because of everything you've described I think it's gonna be really important whatever it whether it's policy or business strategy or just pure empathy people want everybody wants America to get back to work I mean I I you know I'd love to see it though the more confident consumers are and consider Commons this held up the more they're likely gonna venture out and you know Gordon Haskett had a great survey this past week that show that there's a huge increase in people's willingness to step out so I think the stock market is telling us to equal recoveries can be quite vigorous and I think that's maybe the the positive message I'd say is that the stocks aren't moving ahead that aren't just connecting from fundamentals they're telling us the fundamentals might come back really strong all right well let's talk about some of those those opportunities because you talked about the epicenter stocks you highlighted that last time we chatted that some of these opportunities were there for some of the stocks that had been the most beaten down mainly Airlines Casino stocks restaurants included when you're looking at some of those names I understand the surge in American Airlines and saying that they're gonna see what was it about recover 50 percent of its domestic schedule in July that's up from 20 percent versus last year what they had expected in terms of recovering that schedule in the month of May but we've seen American Airlines up 66 percent in the last two days so you're still saying there's opportunity and some of these hard hit names as they've already started to be some of the strongest for career stocks are you saying it maybe take a breather on those and wait for a little pullback and then jump it Zach you know we published a list this morning for our clients and I you know in 17 ideas like we you know myself rob's climber our head of technical strategy and Brian rafter our head of global portfolio strategy really sat down and came up with 17 stocks that I think are early in the recovery you know thank good some of the casinos like when it's Carnival Cruise Lines even though it's bounced it is still many floors below ground level and you know airlines have definitely moved so things like General Dynamics and snap-on might be better you know derivative the place.but and TJX um on the retailer site so I think there's still tons of opportunity and and again I think that's where the dry powder is gonna go it's gonna seek sickly sensitive stocks and those things in a way had massive operating leverage I mean that's why eighties but one thing that you know keeping in mind if you if this is the worst economic recession in our lifetime in the country's lifetime and if cyclical --zz don't die they're unkillable these things survive like the apocalypse and therefore they're multiple should be going up huge so I think the cyclical ZAR gonna know really big I'm glad at least you tempered at your call there on the airline's is about to pounce and and highlight a few things there but pointing out some other derivatives that might be a better place I mean I'll just hit the point again just because we talked about you know the surge in that you can look at Jets I mean that's a good example in terms of the inflows there as Bloomberg highlighted a 64 consecutive days of inflows it reached early this week access up there it used to have 33 million now up close to a billion dollars even the CEO of that ETF said that board millennial day traders were the reason for that rally and he said it way you know it'd be a joke if it weren't backed up by statistics that we've seen on the Robin Hood a trading platform so I mean when you look at the the reaction here and you can look at the highlighting of the data from CBOE saying that stock traders are back to making their most bullish bets since 2011 I mean when you put these pieces together I understand that statistically the the data would show that this recovery is playing out as you would expect from market collapses but still when you put all the pieces together is there not a piece of you saying that okay maybe this is starting to shift into more speculative bubble territory oh yes you know there's there's a lot of speculation and as you know most stocks and uh you know that are speculation and of you know disappointing people you know you know we you don't really want to buy hope because I said I think a lot of cyclical names that have been completely bombed out that are real companies are gonna come back really strong I mean I think wins an example you know I mean when is not gonna be replaced by competitor despite getting obliterated up through March yeah I mean it's a good point of it even in that name we've been highlighting a couple of Vegas guests this week noting that things there might not return to normal total 2023 yet we've seen an incredible rally in those shares over the last couple weeks I guess the main point would be you know they would say that this would take until 2023 but you're saying that there's still opportunities here for a long-term investor looking for the hardest-hit names that's still money on the sidelines and yet when you look at all of this there's still the looming pandemic out there that no one seems to want to talk about I know you're not a health expert but you've at least conceded the point that maybe there could be a second wave here that would kind of undo a lot of what we're seeing but it seems like the market right now is pegging the chance of that to about 0% yeah extra Zach yeah I agree with you first of all we've got so many protests across the country those are all super squirter events that's why northern Italy and Spain got hit so hard was the Champions League soccer match I mean this is that times 10,000 so we have super spreader events taking place everywhere in the country so by June 11th well no but something to keep in mind if the markets not oblivious to this the epicenter stocks would be cratering if there was incremental risk and you know county-by-county we are tracking it so I think the fact that they're holding up is actually ironically telling us if kite isn't a second wave so I'm again letting the market sort of tell us what I think's happening and I think of vigorous recoveries happening and maybe the second wave risk is really diminished alright we'll be keeping our eyes on that keeping our eyes on the market as always Tom Lee you've been right up until this point we'll see what happens on the all-time highs call a fun strike over with managing partner appreciate you taking it back great thanks hey investors sou
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