저자: Kevin · 외국인
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비트코인·암호화폐 ETF 승인이 임박했다고 보며 ETF가 대중 진입을 쉽게 해 가격 상승 촉매가 될 것이라 주장. 블룸버그 분석상 소량 크립토 편입이 나스닥100을 상회했다는 근거 제시. 단기적으로는 데스크로스 등 약세 신호가 있어 변동성 확대 가능성을 언급하나, 지지선 부근에서 회복 시 ETF 진입 적기로 봄. 2022년 크립토 가격 폭발을 기대.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here there are some big changes on the horizon for crypto and bitcoin and a lot of this has to do in my opinion with the coming of a bitcoin and crypto etf this is going to be huge for bitcoin and crypto and in this video we're going to break down the pros the cons time frames and potential price action when we finally get a bitcoin and crypto etf but first we got to start at the bottom and that's not realizing that we've been trying to get a crypto or bitcoin etf since 2013 the sec has been delaying or denying applications ever since when the winklevoss twins first submitted for a bitcoin etf in 2013 and just this year the sec said oh yeah maybe we'll approve you in april oh no no never mind we'll delay that we'll deal with it on june 17th and then just hours before the june 17th deadline in 2021 the sec says yeah we need some more public comments on the potential for market manipulation and thus we have yet another delay for the bitcoin or crypto etfs but folks we've got a lot to understand a lot to unpackage here regarding why we even need one pros cons and all that so let's get right into it but first let's break down some of the fundamentals the easiest way to do this is by starting with some evidence from bloomberg intelligence bloomberg intelligence was asked what is more likely in 2021 100 000 for the price of bitcoin or 20 000 for the price of bitcoin and so to help answer this question they looked at the growth in the average annual price of bitcoin which is this pinkish line here which we can see the growth in the annual price of bitcoin has regularly been going up this is obviously on a logarithmic scale so that way we can actually see this trend on a chart here and it's not just a parabolic move up but what we're also going to be able to do is compare the volatility of bitcoin on a 260 day average over the volatility the s p 500 and so anytime you get these peaks these are massive periods of volatility over and above volatility in the s p 500 and what we're noticing is more and more specifically here in 2019 and 2020 to 21 we're noticing that the volatility of bitcoin is much closer to the volatility of the s p 500 the closer this ratio is to zero the less volatile crypto is compared to the s p 500 and this is where bloomberg actually goes as far as saying we might see a transition from gold to bitcoin much like we saw a transition from horses to cars from slow and old technology to better and faster technology that's able to serve the same purpose getting us from point a to point b or being a store of value or transacting with currency or whatever it may be now what's interesting is since the inception of the bloomberg galaxy crypto index in august of 2017 which tracks cryptos at a rate of 30 bitcoin 30 ethereum 18.5 xrp 9.3 bitcoin cash 6.6 litecoin and so on they track the prices of crypto and what they did recently is they compared wait a minute if we just invested 20 of our money that we would ordinarily put into metals like a bloomberg all metals index which is kind of like you know it's got gold in there obviously right so if we just took 20 of the money that we would ordinarily put into metals into the bloomberg galaxy crypto index how would our returns have performed and bloomberg found that with just 20 percent of cryptos in a normal metal fund the new combined index would actually outperform the nasdaq 100 and do so with lower volatility as long as you are rebalancing quarterly in this example they found that you would be up 170 percent versus closer to 140 percent for the nasdaq now let that sink in for a moment what they're saying is you could have invested in some of the biggest tech companies over the last four years the biggest 100 or you could have just put 80 of your money into the bloomberg all metals index and just had 20 of your money in crypto and you would have outperformed the nasdaq 100 so really there's an argument that you have a bigger risk not investing in cryptocurrency then you do have a risk of losing your money investing in cryptocurrencies now that's obviously very exciting for the crypto community but it's really amazing because it's a sentiment that's spreading through wall street and it also makes sense because when we start looking at populations we see that more and more people are starting to feel more and more comfortable with cryptocurrencies for example the financial times just did some research and found that 2.3 million people in the united kingdom now hold some form of crypto assets that's up 25 from just last year and only 38 of crypto users actually think cryptocurrencies are a gamble that is down from almost half at 47 last year so you're starting to see some major transitions in cryptocurrency fundamentals and this starts becoming really important especially when we start talking about a crypto etf we're also more recently starting to see crypto hodlers finally buy and pick up more and more crypto and this is the first time we started seeing more and more crypto being bought by bitcoin toddlers since october we've seen net changes to the downside in crypto and just recently here in june 2021 we've actually finally started seeing a positive reading of bitcoin handlers adding to their positions with some of the recent price drops we have the hodlers in other words are buying the dip okay but now folks let's understand that crypto is becoming more adopted wall street bloomberg is starting to look at crypto as a potential mix in with gold because the returns are amazing and even if a small portion of your portfolio evaporated because accidentally some coin you bought just didn't do well you'd still be better off having a balance of crypto or variety or diversity of crypto than not and that's something that a crypto etf can provide you but a lot of folks still wonder kevin i can just go buy bitcoin you could even and i don't recommend this but you could even swipe up on robinhood and get bitcoin or at least the appearance of bitcoin obviously it's much easier to have a wallet or platform and go buy your bitcoin there because then you could transfer it you can transact with it obviously all the benefits that come with something like a meta mask or block file whatever so why then do we need a bitcoin etf or a crypto etf let's talk about six big benefits and then we'll get to some cons because there are some but first we gotta hit our sponsor today which is me check out the amazing programs that link down below and if you use the coupon code in the description you'll get 40 off the amazing programs making youtube videos real estate sales property management stocks on the psychology of money you name it we've got some amazing programs the top two in case you're wondering are stocks in the psychology of money and real estate investing zero to millionaire all right folks number one reason why having a crypto or bitcoin etf is so functional is because number one it makes buying easier an exchange eliminates the complexity of having to pick a brokerage and simplifies the process for people who might not be informed in terms of how to best buy cryptocurrency it's kind of like a gateway for regular people who aren't super knowledgeable about crypto to get into crypto think about this if you already have a fidelity account or you already have a retirement account at td ameritrade or schwab whatever then it'd be nice to just type in btc and click buy and get some kind of exchange traded fund that basically tracks the price of bitcoin that's wonderful that's awesome it makes it way easier now you could also go to like metkevin.combf and block file give you up to 250 dollars when you sign up for a brokerage account with them so that you can buy your cryptocurrencies there met kevin.com bf they'll give you up to 250 totally for free if you sign up depending on how much money you deposit over there but folks think about it it's so much easier to just use the existing brokerage you have so that's the number one reason we have four crypto etfs and a bitcoin etf being a really good idea the second benefit is generally people feel somewhat confused in terms of how to safely store their cryptocurrency with an etf the financial company takes liability for this they can store your bitcoin in cold storage they could ensure that bitcoin or crypto is safe there are a lot of things that they can do to make sure that on scale your cryptocurrency is safe now some of you watching this videos video might be thinking kevin it's easy to to store my crypto like i can print out the codes for my bitcoin and then i'm good that's fine but for most people most people are intimidated by the idea of okay hot storage versus cold storage okay so one means you're online one means you're not and i'm supposed to put all my money on a code and store that but what if i lose that because there's an earthquake or a fire or something there's a lot and so the even though it might sound simple for us for the vast majority of people who first hear about cryptocurrency they get concerned about safety having an etf removes that concern for those people number three it also simplifies tax calculations you know buy and sell and you make a profit or a gain it's potentially a lot easier for you to through your existing brokerage report your taxes your gains and your losses number four the and this is one of the big ones you could potentially see an inflow a massive inflow of money and a dramatic price increase for bitcoin we saw billions of dollars flood into canada's first bitcoin etf when it was first approved we just need an american version of that the fifth neat thing is if you have an etf you can also easily for everyone have options trading and simplified short selling now i'm not a big fan of short selling but i will say it'd be nice to be able to swipe up on robinhood and get myself some options on crypto and if that meant i could swipe up and get some calls on bitcoin be something i'd be looking at doing right now anyway uh and no guarantees don't don't do what i say because if you lose money it's ultimately your fault but anyway just the thought i had that's it not financial advice number six having a crypto etf would allow people to buy crypto with margin at any brokerage now i understand that you can already use margin at some brokerages to buy crypto i understand there are risks and downsides to this but it's not ubiquitously available i can't log into jpmorgan where i have a seven million dollar credit line and just go hey guys i want to buy some btc it's gonna be no you gotta wire it and there are wire limits in terms of how much you can wire per day yourself oh you're sending it to a crypto brokerages oh well okay we're gonna have to review this it's a pain in the frickin butt so these are things to consider when we're thinking wait a minute you know i mean it would actually be kind of nice to have a crypto etf now there are some downsides and we're going to touch on those because well you can't have positives without talking about the downsides now the biggest downside of using an etf is that well if you buy cryptocurrency in an etf you're not able to use it as a currency you don't actually own the coin you don't have the private key because you've got the convenience but you just own shares of a fund you don't actually own the coins themselves so you now lose the functional ability of being able to transact with crypto and you can't vote in any kind of rule changing forks in that cryptocurrency this also potentially leads to the consolidation of power to larger brokerages that create these funds i mean imagine if vanguard has a swipe up for the btcv or whatever like bitcoin vanguard etf and all of a sudden vanguard has all of our votes they have a whole lot more power in voting on our behalf because we've put our money into their fund and they have the votes and we don't so these are some pros and cons to consider but right now we also have to consider are we actually going to see a crypto or bitcoin etf so we already know that the decision that was supposed to come here in june has been delayed again the sec wants more information but the good news is this doesn't mean that it's not going to happen we actually have a lot of signals that are very positive for a bitcoin or crypto etf coming first it's helpful to know that gary gensler the chairperson of the sec the security and exchange commission is somebody who's actually well known in the blockchain community and he's an advocate of digital assets he previously taught a class at mit on blockchain technologies and kathy wood said in january that she doesn't believe we will see a bitcoin etf until its market cap hits two trillion dollars that would put bitcoin somewhere around a hundred ten thousand dollars but recently she's been revising her opinion saying you know what it can actually come way before two trillion dollars so more and more we're seeing folks start revising their estimates to indicate that probably by the end of 2021 or sometime in 2022 we should expect a bitcoin and crypto etf so for me i'm kind of marking the calendar for december on and then through 2022 to expect some kind of crypto etf now what do we think is going to happen between now and then and what happens when we actually have a crypto etf but before we talk about having a crypto etf we got to touch on the death cross because we've got some potential problems in the short term that we got to get over all right folks here's a bitcoin and take a look at some of these technicals the death cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average and look at this folks it's literally about to happen now the death cross is usually an indicator of a price crash coming in fact previously when this has happened in 2014 and 2017 and in 2019 after a death cross we literally saw bitcoin drop anywhere between 55 and 71 after a death cross now we don't actually expect bitcoin to fall that much this time because we've got some pretty strong support levels beneath this death cross and where we sit now right now the price of bitcoin is sitting at thirty five thousand eight hundred and thirty five dollars at the time of this recording we do believe that we have support levels at about thirty two thousand dollars and another one about nineteen thousand eight 800.
however after that we start zooming down closer to about the ten thousand dollar levels and i don't even have a line drawn that low so hopefully we don't see any kind of madness like this but we have also had folks like michael bury predict the large correction coming to cryptocurrencies specifically because of high leverage but now why would i be bringing up the death cross in this video well because like it or not technical traders watch the death cross if the death cross happens and we end up falling to a lower level of support we could potentially end up seeing volatility in the short term skyrocket but in the long term if we stabilize at either that 32k level or around that 20 000 level and then slowly work our way back those could end up being ideal moments for a crypto etf because it would mean that we hit a very very bearish technical and bitcoin didn't evaporate bitcoin as usual survives again it as usual prevails again and that's what we expect to happen we expect if there is any kind of fall in the prices of crypto that crypto will slowly climb its way back up and that slow ascent could be the perfect time to start a crypto etf now another thing that's neat about the crypto etf uh whether it's a crypto etf or bitcoin etf is that we might also see things like an ethereum etf we've already had ethereum etfs filed for another thing this could paint a perfect opportunity for is the creation of multifaceted etfs where we have an ethereum etf a bitcoin etf or an etf that has a mix of ethereum and bitcoin and other coins which actually provides more liquidity and potential more of a price positive or positive price action push for those other coins we have already started seeing some amazing price action in ethereum for example and this could be accelerated by an etf which is very good for ethereum consider this when we overlay the bitcoin market cap with the ethereum market cap as a percentage of total market share of the crypto markets we see that bitcoin's total percentage has actually fallen while ethereum the whiteline's total percentage has risen ethereum's percentage going as high as about 23 and bitcoin's percentage of market cap going from a high of almost 80 percent of the market to right now sitting around 42 of the market and in my opinion crypto etfs will just help accelerate these trends of giving more power to more versatile cryptocurrencies i think a crypto etf and bitcoin etf are going to be phenomenal both for bitcoin for ethereum and for other coins this is wonderful however we do have another risk another risk is the fact that we know pretty openly that celebrities are getting paid big dollars for promoting random alt coins like consider kim kardashian who was paid to promote ethereum max on her instagram or floyd mayweather who promoted ethereum max or other influencers who took sponsorships from gemini now it's totally possible that these are just straight legitimate sponsorships but one of the risks is there are a lot of people who know nothing about cryptocurrency and this is a double-sided risk today people might not know anything about cryptocurrencies but see ethereum max be intrigued but then find it too complicated to invest or invest in something they're clueless about and then lose money which might jade them against the entire crypto market whereas if we had crypto etfs it's entirely possible that people could buy a crypto etf that maybe includes one of these sponsored coins like maybe there's a crypto etf that includes ethereum max but it also gives you a bigger exposure to bitcoin and ethereum and a smaller exposure to something like ethereum x now this is no slam on aetherium max i've got no qualms and i've got no commentary on this other than to say that crypto etfs will probably make it a lot easier for many different folks to get involved in cryptocurrencies and to me a crypto etf is exactly the kind of mass market catalyst that we need to push crypto to the next level that is big prices rocket ship to the moon no guarantees could end up being temporary but honestly i think this is exactly what we need now of course there are endless other issues to deal with such as el salvador and the world bank and the imf being concerned about crypto regulation being concerned about crime the by mining ban of cryptocurrencies in china we've got hedge funds looking at cryptocurrency more as an offset to gold we've got hedge funds shorting crypto currencies because lately well it's been making money and we've got a death cross on the calendar to me we have a ton of fun between now and big potential for crypto but in my opinion my time frame for crypto is starting at the end of this year i'm getting really excited for 2022 for crypto and i'm looking at this death cross on the daily basis because if i see an opportunity here to dive in i'm gonna take my opportunity i'm gonna go pick up some coin because i think over the next few years we're gonna see an explosion in valuations thanks to these etfs there's a lot of crap between here and there but i'm really excited about tracking all of this and if you found this helpful and you want more crypto content make sure to hit that subscribe button it sends me a signal that you like this kind of content that you want more of this and i'm super excited to provide it for you thanks so much for watching and we'll see you
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