저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 2011년 주주서한 기준 투자 3분류(통화기반·비생산자산·생산자산)를 설명하며, 생산자산(주식·부동산·농지) 선호를 강조한다. 통화기반 투자(채권·국채·예금): 원금 상환 측면에서는 무위험에 가깝지만, 인플레이션과 세금으로 구매력이 잠식된다는 점이 핵심 리스크로 제시된다. 인플레이션 근거로 1965년 이후 달러 가치가 86% 하락했다고 언급되며, 현재 저금리 환경에서는 통화기반 자산의 수익률이 매우 낮다고 설명한다. 예금은 FDIC 보호(일정 한도)가 있어 안전하지만 수익률이 미미하다고 평가된다. 비생산자산(금): 산업·보석 용도 외에 생산성이 없으며 가치는 투자자 심리에 의존한다고 비판한다. 버핏 서한 예시: 전 세계 금 약 17만 톤(1온스 1,750달러 기준 약 9.6조 달러)으로 미국 농지 4억 에이커(연 약 2,000억 달러 산출)와 엑슨모빌 16개를 살 수 있다는 비교가 제시된다. 생산자산(주식·부동산·농지): 배당과 이익이 나오고 가격 전가로 인플레이션 헤지가 가능하다고 설명한다. 20세기 다우 지수가 66에서 11,497로 상승했다는 장기 데이터와, 영상 시점 약 20,600 수준이 언급된다. 버핏의 농지(1986년, 오마하 북부 400에이커) 및 뉴욕대 인근 상업용 부동산(1993년) 투자 사례가 소개되며, 상업용 부동산은 연간 배당이 초기 투자금의 35%, 특별배당 포함 150% 이상이라고 설명된다. 리스크·조건: 주식은 어떤 기업·투자수단을 고를지가 관건이라며 별도 영상에서 다룬다고 언급하고, 세제 혜택(401k, IRA)도 소개된다. 투자 방향 결론: 진행자는 버핏이 선호하는 생산자산 유형을 본인도 선호한다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's 2011 letter to shareholders laid out three major categories of Investments as seen Through The Eyes of a legendary investor currency based Investments these are investments denominated in a given currency think bonds treasury bills corporate debt or even savings accounts these types of Investments are generally thought as low risk compared to other Financial assets like stocks however Warren Buffett is quick to point out that the idea of risk is more complex than it seems treasury bills issued and backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government is about as close to riskless as you can get in the investment World in fact the interest rate on the US treasury bill is the riskless rate that many people use in calculating the value of financial assets but waren Buffett has a more sophisticated view of risk which not only incorporates the risk of being paid back in full in the time and the interest agreed upon but also the risk of losing after tax purchasing power take the humble savings account it's also a riskless investment because most banks have pretty good credit rating and it's regulated by the government to make sure that they are reasonably solvent but if for whatever reason the bank becomes insolvent and goes bankrupt well your funds are guaranteed and protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation which is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government up to a set dollar amount so your savings account deposit at a FDIC insured bank is reasonably riskless but anybody who's actually taking a look at the interest they've earned on their savings account will surely be disappointed as they are pittance we are currently living in a very low interest rate environment and financial assets tied to interest rates like treasury bills bonds and even savings accounts are paying extremely low returns returns that evaporate once you take into account inflation which erods purchasing power Warren points out that since 1965 the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% it takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time and investors in currency based Investments not only have to fight inflation roading away their returns but also taxes so currency based Investments like a savings account or a treasury bill is riskless in a sense that you're repaid with interest in a timely manner but the risk of a loss in purchasing power is far from riskless Warren does point out that there have been times in the past like in the early 1980s the interest rates were so high that it could combat the eroding effects of inflation and tax taxes and still produce a healthy return but currently interest rates are at near historic lows in many countries which make currency based Investments a risky proposition the second major category Investments are assets that will never produce anything but a purchase and the buyer hope that someone else who also knows that the asset will be forever unproductive will pay more for them in the future the major asset that Warren Buffett talks about in this category is gold now I remember a few years back when the idea that peak oil the idea that we have hit peak oil production and will slowly run out of oil will end civilization as we know it gold became a really popular investment due to Gold's historically great investment track record when people are fearful I'm not so sure why gold is so favored by people fearing a dystopian future true story I had a coworker once ask me wouldn't I want some bars of gold if Society collapsed I told her no if Society collaps I rather have a cow seeds Farming tools clean water in all honestly gold will be the last thing I would want that's Gold's problem its uses are very limited some industrial use and jewelry it also doesn't produce anything if you own 1 o of gold for an eternity you will still own 1 o at its end Gold's value largely depends on the sentiment of other investors somebody who thinks gold's price will rise even further in the future because the utility of gold is very limited and unable to keep up with Supply I think Warren puffett puts it quite beautifully in his letter to shareholders the problem with gold and assets like it today the world's gold supply is about 170,000 metric tons if all this gold were melted together it would form a cube of about 68 ft per side picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield at $1,750 per ounce gold's price at the time of this rating 2011 its value will be about $9.6 trillion call this Q pile A let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount for that we can buy all the US crop land 400 million Acres with output of about $200 billion annually plus 16 Exon mobils the world's most profitable company one earning more than $40 billion annually after these purchases we would have about 1 trillion left over for walking around money no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge can you imagine investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B A Century from now the 400 million Acres of Farmland will produce staggering amounts of corn wheat cotton and other crops and will continue to produce that valuable Bounty whatever the currency may be Exon Mobile will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions and remember you get 16 Exxon mobils the 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything you can f the cube but it will not respond the third major investment category are productive Assets Now those that know who waren Buffett is probably think that he's talking about stocks and companies true stocks and well-managed financially sound companies certainly produce assets both in terms of dividends and earnings to its shareholders the capital gains on stocks can be the financial cherry on top of the investment Sunday Warren Buffett points out that the Dow in the 20th century increased from 66 to 11,497 and at the time of this video the Dow is at 20,600 68 and paid loads of dividends a company's earnings are also hedged against inflation because the price of products and services they sell will go up with inflation also capital gains and dividends are generally taxed more favorably than regular income and doubly so if the stocks are held in a tax sheltered investment account like a 410k and Ira now the problem with stocks and Equity Investments is which company do you invest in or which investment vehicle do you invest in but that's a whole other video but productive assets isn't limited to just stocks it also includes real estate and farmland Warren Buffett has invested in both in 1986 he purchased 400 Acres of Farmland north of Omaha farmlands productive capacity is quite easy to understand we all got to eat in 1993 Warren Buffett along with a small group of other investors brought a retail property that was adjacent to New York University figuring that the university wasn't going anywhere annual distribution from this retail property now equal 35% of his initial investment and he also enjoy special distribution that total more than 150% of his initial investment he hasn't even visited the retail property once unsurprisingly Category 3 or productive assets is Warren Buffett's preferred investment type and frankly it's also mine thanks for watching please subscribe as I'll be making more videos that detail Warren Buffett's investment Philosophy from his annual letter to shareholders till next time
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