저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 워런 버핏의 2000년 주주서한을 바탕으로 투자와 투기의 차이를 설명하며, 개별 기업 투자는 불확실성이 커서 추정이 어렵고 그 경우 투기라고 본다. 핵심 프레임: '손안의 새 한 마리가 덤불 속 두 마리보다 낫다'는 격언을 기업 평가에 적용. 세 가지 질문(새가 확실히 있는가, 언제 나오는가, 몇 마리인가)과 무위험 금리를 알면 덤불의 최대 가치를 계산할 수 있다고 설명. 무위험 금리: 장기 미국 국채 수익률을 기회비용의 기준으로 사용하는 것이 간단하다고 설명. 새가 있는지 여부: 사업 아이디어는 종이 위에서 그럴듯해 보이기 쉽고, 창업 초기 기업의 수익성 분석은 산업, 경영진, 경쟁우위, 위협 요인 등 광범위한 지식을 요구한다. 전문 벤처캐피털도 판단이 어려우며, WSJ 인용으로 벤처 투자 스타트업의 약 4분의 3이 수익을 내지 못한다고 언급. 언제, 몇 마리인가: 변수가 너무 많아 정확한 수치 예측은 어렵고, 범위로 추정하는 것이 낫지만 범위가 너무 넓으면 쓸모가 없다고 설명. 투기와 버블: 확신을 가질 수 없는 신생 산업·급변 산업에 대한 자본은 투기로 분류해야 하며, 투기 자체는 불법이 아니지만 합리적으로 인식해야 한다. 버블 막바지에는 투자은행이 가치 창출보다 투자자에서 은행가로의 부의 이전에 몰두하며, IPO 중심 사업 모델은 행운의 편지와 비슷하다고 비판. 버블 끝물을 정확히 알기 어렵다는 점도 강조. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 언급 없음. 시장 전망이나 특정 자산의 방향 예측 발언 없음. 리스크: 과도한 밸류에이션, 버블 말기의 투기적 참여, 불확실한 신생 기업 투자. 출연자 전망: 해당 없음(내레이션 영상).
다듬은 글
today's investment wisdom comes from Warren Buffett's 2000 letter to shareholders which was written after the.com bust earlier that year as such it was apt of Warren Buffett to remind the investing Community the difference between investing and speculation waren points to an old axium by the Oracle asoft that is applicable to evaluating companies many of you will have heard of the axim before a bird in the hand or worth two in the bush Warren explains that if you can know the answer to three questions in regard to this Axiom you're able to know the maximum value of the Bush and thus able to rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the Universe the three questions are how certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush when will they emerge and how many will there be what is the risk-free interest rate that's it those are the deceptively simple question that you need to answer in order to know the maximum value of the Bush of course Warren Buffett isn't really talking about bushes and birds rather he's talking about companies and how much money or value the companies are able to generate out of the three questions the risk-free rate is the easiest to answer waren suggests that you can use a long-term yield of a us-backed Government Bond now why would you want to know the risk-free rate well the risk-free rate is kind of like the opportunity cost for any investment because an investor can always choose to invest in a US Bond versus any other investment it's quick and rather easy to identify the yield of a long-term us backed Government Bond all it takes is a quick scan through the financial section of a newspaper Google finance Yahoo finance or a host of other Financial oriented websites the other two questions are much harder to answer and requires a large degree of guesstimation how certain can one be that there are indeed birds in the bush or in other words how certain can we be that a company will generate money as anyone with a get-rich quick Uncle will tell you many business ideas sounds plausible or downright appealing on paper especially combined with euphoric investing environment as seen in the theom era but to be able to analyze a company especially in the early stages of its potential to generate profits is a challenging task it requires extensive knowledge about the industry that the company operates in who is operating the company the company's competitive advantages and weaknesses and threats even professional Venture capitalists whose sole job is to evaluate the Financial viability of companies have a difficult time evaluating if a company they are invested in will ever make money according to the Wall Street Journal three out of four startups that venture capitalist fund fail to ever make money for its investors the remaining question and probably the most difficult question when will the birds emerge and how many will there be if it's difficult to analyze if a company will be profitable it's Monumental is to analyze how profitable company will be and when you can expect profitability I'm reminded of another saying that business owners would probably recognize or not in agreement man plans and God laughs there are simply too many variables to analyze and model to come up with concrete number for when and how profitable a company will be warm Buffett recognizes this Herculean task and posits that using precise number is in fact foolish working with a range of possibilities is a better approach however Warren Buffett points out that usually the range must be so wide that no useful conclusion can be reached Warren Buffett just underscored why it's so difficult to invest in individual companies too many variables and considerations to be able to generate concrete numbers and if you use too wide a range then any estimations that you come up with is useless it's kind of like trying to estimate how long you're going to live for far too many variables to know for sure but saying you live somewhere between 0 to 200 years isn't really useful these are the mental exercises that according to Warren Buffett you must engage in when you're investing in IND idual company and if you don't or can't then you're speculating there are many times when the most brilliant of investors can't muster a conviction about the birds to emerge not even when a very broad range of estimates is employed this kind of uncertainty frequently occurs when new businesses and rapidly changing Industries are under examination in cases of this sort any Capital committed must be labeled speculative Warren Buffett is quick to point out that there's nothing per se wrong with speculation neither illegal immoral nor an American but you have to recognize when you're speculating and be rational about your decisions when speculating waren points out how effortless money sedates rationality and even when you know that you're speculating and you have to exit before the bubble pops it's much too tempting to continue dancing while the music is playing they know that overstaying the festivities that is continue to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash that they likely generate in the future will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice but they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of is one hell of a party therefore the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight there's a problem though they all dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands waren goes on to warn that during euphoric investing environments like those seen in the doom boom Wall Street and investment bankers are less concerned with value creation but with wealth transfers and mainly wealth transfers from the investing public to the pockets of Bankers by shamelessly merchandising birdless bushes promoters have in recent years move billions of dollars from the pockets of the public to their own purses and to those of their friends and Associates the fact is that a bubble Market has allowed the creation of bubble companies entities design more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them too often an IPO not profits was the primary goal of a company's promoters at bottom the business model for these companies has been the old-fashioned chain letter for which many feel hungry investment bankers acted as eager postmen be especially careful near the the tail end of a stock market boom that's when investment bankers are more concerned about the marketing and selling of IPOs than creating real value in real companies of course the difficult part is knowing if you're near the end of the bubble before the bubble bursts and everybody stampeding through the tiny exit consider subscribing to The Strange World the Eon channel ERS till next time
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