저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워렌 버핏의 2013년 주주서한에 언급된 두 가지 투자 사례(1986년 네브라스카 농지 매입, 1993년 뉴욕대 인근 상가 투자)를 소개하며, 투자는 천재성보다 자신의 한계를 인식하고 분석을 단순하게 유지하는 데서 출발한다는 교훈을 전달한다. 농지 투자는 28만 달러에 400에이커를 매입했고, 중서부 농지 가격이 과거 버블 붕괴로 50% 가까이 하락한 시점이 매수 적기였다. 아들 하워드 버핏의 농업 경험을 바탕으로 연 약 10%의 정상화 수익을 예상했으며, 이후 농지 가치는 5배 이상이 되었다고 언급된다. 상가 투자는 1993년 뉴욕대 인근 부동산에 파트너(프레드 로즈 등 전문가 그룹)와 함께 참여했다. 한 대형 임차인이 면적의 20%를 평당 5달러에 임차하고 있었으나 주변 시세는 평당 70달러였으며, 재계약 시 수익이 크게 늘 것으로 보았다. 그 결과 연간 분배금이 원금 대비 35% 이상, 특별 배당 포함 원금의 150% 이상을 회수했다고 한다. 핵심 원칙으로는 투자 대상이 실제로 무엇을 생산하고 앞으로 얼마나 생산성이 있는지에 집중할 것, 대략적인 미래 수익을 추정할 수 없는 자산은 과감히 제외할 것, 금리·경기·시장 전망 같은 거시 이슈와 일일 시세에 휘둘리지 말 것, 주변 전문가와 미디어의 잡음이 판단을 흐린다는 점이 강조된다. 영상 출연자 전망이나 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
today's pearl of investment wisdom comes from Warren Buffett's 2013 letter to shareholders in which Warren Buffett highlights two Investments he's made in the past in 1986 Warren Buffett purchased 400 Acres of Farmland north of Omaha for $280,000 which he points out was a bargain because the bubble for Midwest West Farmland just popped recently with Farm prices in the midwest declined by over 50% the second investment he goes on to talk about in his 2013 letter to shareholders was an investment in a New York retail property that was adjacent to New York University which he made in 1993 now what does Warren Buffett have to say about these two Investments and what makes these two Investments special especially concering the fact that he's done hundreds of business deals and for a lot more money $280,000 for a 400 acre Farm doesn't sound particularly sexy or a mega deal for a man that's worth more than $50 billion in the case of the 400 Acres of Farmland in Nebraska Warren Buffett doesn't have a pension for farming and farming isn't one of his areas of expertise but waren Buffett does have a son Howard Buffett who has worked as a commercial farmer planting soybeans and corn and is quite knowledgeable about operating a commercial Farm through console with his green thumb son waren was able to get an idea what the operating expenses and the expect the return from the 400 Acres of Farmland would be with the information provided by his son he estimated the Farmland would produce a normalized annual return of about 10% with a future upside of improved crop prices and productivity in Warren's 1993 retail property investment near New York University waren Buffett partnered up with a small group of investors including Fred Rose an expert on highgrade real estate Investments who along with his family would manage the retail property once again through conso with trusted knowledgeable sources Fred Rose and others in the small group of investors Warren Buffett was able to calculate the return on the retail property was about 10% with future upside due to better management and at the time there were a couple of Unleashed stores at the retail property once those retail units have been leased Warren Buffett expected even higher returns both investment in the 400 acre farmland and the retail property adjacent to New York University Prov to be widely successful the farm has tried its earnings and is worth five times or more what I paid the annual distribution from his retail property investment exceeds 35% of our original Equity investment and several special distributions toing more than 150% of what we had invested these two deals highlights his thinking when it comes to evaluating an investment be it a few $100,000 or a few billion Warren Buffett points out that you don't need to be highly intelligent or possess a secretive knowledge to making rewarding Investments waren isn't an expert in far or commercial real estate but he was able to draw on Expert knowledge in both investment cases Warren Buffett in his Farmland investment and Fred Rose and others in the small Investment Group in his retail property investment Warren goes on to say that while it's not required to be super smart or even be extremely knowledgeable you need to recognize your limitations and keep the analysis simple waren posited that regardless of interest rates or the political climate soy beans and corn will still be planted in Omaha and because the retail property was next to New York un University its feature was bright because the university and students wasn't going anywhere how many investors get way over their heads when it comes to investing in companies that they have very vague idea or even no idea what the company is doing or selling especially new technology companies that promise to holistically Empower and impact and synergize and globalize while disrupting and proactively leveraging something or the other waren stresses if you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings just forget it and move on no one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility the business of farmland and Retail property are easier to wrap your mind around than say microprocessors and biopharmaceuticals for the average investor another point that Warren stresses is examine what your Investments actually produce and its future productivity in the case of the Farmland it was soybean corn and other edible crops in his retail property Investments it was rents which waren predicted would rise significantly because one significant tenant who was occupying 20% of the retail floor space was paying only $5 per foot for rent while tenants around the retail property were paying $70 per foot for rent once that rental agreement was renegotiated earnings on the property was expected to jump significantly by focusing on what your investment actually produce and its future productivity it will help you better evaluate your investment for the long term with my two small Investments I thought only of what the properties were produced and cared not at all about their daily valuations don't get two Sid tracked by macroeconomic issues such as interest rates or how the economy is doing or Market predictions if the stock market will go up or down in the future these issues are endlessly debated in the media and can Cloud your judgment when it comes to evaluating your Investments as Warren puts it my two purchases were made in 1986 and 1993 what the economy interest rate or the stock market might be doing in the Years immediately following 1987 and 1994 was of no importance to me in making those Investments I can't remember what the headlines or the pundants were saying at the time whatever the chatter corn would keep growing in Nebraska and the students will flock to NYU paying attention to daily Market chatter and checking the prices of your Investments can have big psychological impact as investors get nervous when the market crashes and the world seems to be on the verge of ending or eork when the stock market hits all-time highs and the good time seems to be never ending big Market movements invites the chatter of Market experts financial planners neighbors and co-workers who feel like it's their Duty to impart their financial wisdom Onto You owners of stocks however too often let the capricious and often irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well because there's so much chatter about markets the economy interest rates price Behavior stocks Etc some investors believe it's important to listen to pundit and worse yet important to consider acting upon their comments thanks for watching this video hopefully you found Warren Buffett's investment advice useful please consider liking and subscribing to The Strange World of eon Channel as even more ]
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