저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 워런 버핏의 주주서한(1994~1995)을 인용해 투자 원칙을 설명하며, 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 버핏의 투자 규모 딜레마: 버크셔 해서웨이가 커지면서 1억 달러 미만 거래는 의미가 없어졌고, 최소 투자 기준이 1억 달러로 올라가 투자 가능 대상이 크게 줄었다. 딜메이킹의 유혹: 피터 드러커 인터뷰를 인용해 거래 자체의 흥분과 로맨스가 투자자를 잘못된 결정으로 이끌 수 있다고 경고한다. CEO의 제국 건설 욕구: 동기 부여와 자존심이 강한 경영자가 사업 논리와 무관하게 인수를 밀어붙이는 경향을 지적한다. 1960~70년대 복합기업 열풍과 이후 해체 사례를 예로 든다. 원칙 유지: 합리적 가격에 좋은 사업과 정직하고 유능한 경영진을 사는 원칙을 지키고, 투자 계획에서 벗어나지 말라고 강조한다. 대기 자금과 조급함: 현금을 놀리는 것이 불안하지만, 그 조급함에서 나온 투자는 후회로 이어지기 쉽다고 본다. 외부 충격과 공포: 베트남전, 석유 파동, 소련 해체, 1987년 대폭락 등 과거 사건을 예로 들며 정치·경제 뉴스가 투자 전략을 흔들 수 있다고 경고한다. 역발상: 거시적 공포가 가장 클 때 최고의 매수 기회가 많았다는 점을 강조한다. 결론적 메시지: 외부 사건을 예측하거나 그로 인해 이익을 추구하기보다, 좋은 사업을 식별하는 데 집중하면 장기 성과는 외부 충격의 영향을 적게 받는다.
다듬은 글
for today's investment advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett will'll be taking a look at his 1994 letter to shareholders Warren laments the fact that brick Shure Hathaway has grown to 11.9 billion from $22 million when Warren and his business partner Charlie Munger took over management of course today brickshire Hathaway is worth a lot more than $22 billion at the time of writing brickshire hathway is worth over $400 billion now why would Warren Buffett be lamenting the fact that brickshire hathway has grown so much by 1994 isn't it the dream of many CEOs to be at the helm of a multi-billion Dollar business Empire well for Warren Buffett given the size of brickshire hathway any business acquisition he makes has to be of a certain size in order to have a material impact on brickshire Hathway's bottom lines a $1 million deal might be significant when brickshire hathway was worth just $22 million but insignificant for 11 billion company in 1994 Warren set $100 million as the minimum deal size to Warrant consideration for brickshire Hathaway Warren Buffett spells out his investment dilemma a fat wallet however is the enemy of superior investment results though there are as many good businesses as ever it is useless for us to make purchases that are inconsequential in relation to Brick shar's Capital we now consider a security for purchase only if we believe we can deploy at least $100 million in it given that minimum bricker's investment Universe has shrunk dramatically now given these constraints it's easy to waver to bend one's investing standards and strategy for the thrill of the deal in Warren's 1995 letter to shareholders Warren points to an interview that business thinker Peter trucker conducted for Time Magazine which describes the thrill of the deal I will tell you a secret deal making beats working deal making is exciting and fun and working is grubby running anything is primarily an enormous amount of grubby detail work deal making is romantic sexy and it's not just a constraint of size it's tempting to bend and rationalize why it makes sense to make an investment that deviates from your original investment plan and philosophy the mind is very Adept at rationalizing the irrational when it wants something even when it's harmful Warren Buffett describes the scene some years back a CEO friend of mine in justess it must be said unintentionally described the pathology of many big deals this friend ran a property casual insurer was explaining to his directors why he wanted to acquire a certain life insurance company after droning rather persuasively through the economics and strategic rationale for their acquisition he abruptly abandoned the script with an impish look he simply said ah fellas all the other kids have one some CEOs go through a kingdom building phase and seek to expand their financial Holdings irregardless if the business deals make sense or not Warren points out many CEOs attain their position in part because they possess an abundant of animal spirits and ego if an executive is heavily endowed with these qualities which it should be acknowledged sometimes have their advantages they won't disappear when he reaches the top during the late 1960s and early 1970s many companies were merging and acquiring a host of different companies in a conglomerate Mania in the names of diversification Synergy and the new science of corporate management many of these conglomerates were later break up piece by piece Warren Buffett warns against this to bend one's investing philosophy which in Warren's case we believe that our formula the purchase at sensible prices of businesses that have good underlying economics and are run by honest and able people is certain to produce a reasonable success rather than give into the itch of deal making or Investing For investing sakes stick to your original investment game plan to wait for the ideal pitch before you take a swing some investors get antsy when they have money sitting in their bank account they want to put their money into action to invest in something in anything speaking personally I know this feeling all too well you want to see your money invested in something to see the numbers rise and fall to watch your screen light up with activity to have some sort of action it's not very exciting to watch your money sitting in a savings or checking account but these are dangerous moments that frequently results in buyer remorse just like going to the mall looking for something to buy rather than needing something and going to the mall to purchase it once again waren warns against listening to political and economic commentary that might sway you from your investing strategy as Warren points out 30 years ago no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of Vietnam War wage and price controls two oil shocks the resignation of a president the dissolution of the Soviet Union a one-day drop in the da of 508 points or treasury bills yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4% there will be many factors both externally and internally that will try to sway you from your investing plan or strategy The Thrill of the deal the fear of trade Wars inflation deflation and War War to name just a few speaking personally once again it seems like I can't go anywhere without the Spectre of fear looming over me political unrest economic malaise drug epidemics Global Health epidemics bribery and Corruption the 24-hour news cycle never ends however to invest is to a degree to be optimistic in the future and as Warren points out imagine the cost to us then if we had let fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital indeed we have usually made our best purchases when apprehension about some macro event were at a peak fear is the foe of the fattest but the friend of the fundamentalist a different set of major shocks is sure to occur in the next 30 years we will neither try to predict these nor to profit from them if we can identify businesses similar to those we have purchased in the past external surprises will have little effect on our long-term results like And subscribe to the strange world Eon channel time
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