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5 Hello investors, this is Ju-a Boot. Did you have a pleasant weekend? The weather has been so nice lately, hasn't it? Take this opportunity to go out for walks, exercise, and spend more quality time with your family. The stock market isn't exactly great right now, but that does n't mean we need to be too aggressive.
Today's main topic is to first take a look at the opening of semiconductor stock prices for this week. Then, we will continue to examine the market conditions for stocks and try to formulate a response strategy together. 4 Semiconductor Stock Opening. Right now, it is April 19th, and the current time is 12:14 AM.
What you are looking at right now is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. If we look at the current flow of the index, as we examined last week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is in a position where it can rebound from the previous low. I mentioned that we should examine how that signal manifests.
I said this signal is when the 5-day moving average crosses over. Currently, the stock price is breaking through the 5-day moving average. Therefore, there seems to be a very high probability that this signal will appear. Hmm, we need to look at the final confirmed day's performance. So, today the stock price broke through the 5-day moving average with a bullish candle, but I will review tomorrow's evaluation to see if it maintains that level and if the 5-day moving average turns around.
Also, there is this buy signal. The psychological line has broken out of the bottom. I explained the psychological line once last week, didn't I? It was the investor sentiment indicator. Based on this calculation method, the stock price has fallen significantly over the past few days, so it is a psychological indicator used to determine whether the price is currently in an oversold zone or a buying zone.
According to that psychological indicator, the semiconductor index was recently in the oversold zone. A buy signal appears when the price breaks out of the oversold zone. So, as the stock price rose today, a bottom breakout signal appeared on the psychological line. Therefore, based on psychological criteria, a buy signal has been issued.
Also, orders are currently coming in for the second stage. Now, if the second stage signal is completed, we need to watch until the closing price. We can't just watch the settlement, can we? Even if it drops a bit more from here, just in case... Even if the stock price drops further, the chart you are looking at on the right is the monthly chart.
On this chart, there is a long-term moving average. But do you see the red line here? What does that mean? It is the 24-month moving average. Since it represents the average price over 24 months, it is a very long- term moving average. It is currently rising from above and below with a strong slope.
Also, the current divergence from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is only about 3%. This means that even if it falls from here, there is a very strong long-term moving average line supporting it from below. So, even if it drops by a maximum of 3 to 4%, there is support from below; you can think of it as having a safety net.
You have endured this far, so there is no need to cut your losses or get extremely stressed out. You can simply watch the market from now on. If it forms a breakout point here, provides various signaling patterns and signals of a bottom breakout, and rises in this turn as the 5-day moving average is, then it will flow exactly as we planned.
When it was flowing, what did I say? I mentioned that while a signal indicating bottoming out might appear right now, it is not a signal that leads directly to an uptrend. The reason is that trading volume still exists above, so if it rises from here, it will face resistance again. Therefore, some believers predict that it will go up, form a box range, measure its energy, and then rise again.
Yes, that is what I expect to happen. Now, please observe whether it continues in that manner. So, now is the time to respond. Next, give me a smirk. It is exactly the same as the smirk. Regarding semiconductors, the Philadelphia Semiconductor error and the opportunity are being handled one-on-one because it seems to be ending in the city and county.
And then, um, shall we take a look at Nvidia? Nvidia is quite interesting, isn't it? As I explained last week, Nvidia hit a straight bottom here for the first time—when was that? To put it simply, it hit a straight bottom. Then, later on, it gave a long bullish candle here, bringing another bottom signal.
And around early March, specifically March 10th, it received and hit the bottom here once more and rose strongly. Now, and The current position is right there. It is near $216. So, current analysis suggests that this is likely a strong support price level. Let's take a look at how the price is changing.
The screen you are currently viewing is a bit small, so you might not be able to see it clearly. However, there were many semiconductor-related stocks gathered here. I’ve gathered Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Intel, Texas Instruments, and others, hoping for a deal that might end with gambles and negotiation.
If you look at the main semiconductor-related stocks, they are all currently in positive price, and all the candles are showing bullish patterns. They are likely to see suckers, and they are currently showing short wicks. Since this is not the closing price, you need to check the trend. If a 5-day moving average forms a line from above, that would be great.
As for Nvidia, the slope of the 5-day moving average is currently downward, so it seems to be cutting its upper wick and looking to the future. However, we need to examine how the closing price turns out for this one as well. Now, next up, the top market capitalization stocks. Let's take a look at the stocks starting with Apple.
Apple gave a bullish candle but is pulling back a bit, so the price has dropped to negative levels. Microsoft is in a flat range, while Amazon has also shown a negative candle. Tesla broke through $1,000 but failed to form upper or lower wicks, showing a mixed trend now. Google is in the same situation.
Now, semiconductors are doing better than these prices, right? The trend in semiconductor stocks is currently better than that of the major tech stocks. The index was forming in positive territory but has now dropped back to negative levels. Although there were many people saying that semiconductors are bad, they are currently showing that they are the first to move when a rebound occurs.
You need to carefully examine whether the price will maintain this trend and cut back a bit. After that, we will continue the discussion. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ index. It is currently 12:30. Let's see how it is. Okay, let's take a look at Q. If you look at the chart, the price drove strongly with this bullish candle early in today's session.
However, since the 5-day moving average hasn't been broken yet and there is a risk of a downward movement, it touched the 5-day line here and is falling again. Nevertheless, the current trend hasn't been broken yet and is maintaining a slight concession. So, as you can see, fluctuations are continuing; the selling pressure is significant, but the buying pressure at low prices is also considerable.
At a time like this, whether the buying or selling pressure is stronger will be determined by today's closing price. The 5-day line is here, and if the closing price forms above the 5-day line, we can interpret this as the "Byeong-guk" signal of Stage 2 (9 o'clock) having appeared. There are two scenarios.
Let's examine these two Shari 5s for the future. Let's make a prediction and figure out how to respond if the market flows as predicted. The first scenario is confirming the "Byeong-guk" signal we discussed earlier—the scenario where the 5-day line breaks out like this. Now, for the second scenario, if, just in case, this signal does not appear...
If the stock price falls along the same length, will it just drop sharply like this? No, absolutely not. There is one more bottom line being held below. Now, looking at the previous low, the bottom line based on the Nasdaq 100 index is somewhat there. If you look, it is the same here; the 24-month moving average is rising strongly from below.
Let's take a look at the extent of the discrepancy, which isn't large. It is about -3%. Now, in the case of a bad trend where it just drops sharply from here—if it falls right down to the previous low—the discrepancy is -3%. I am saying that even if the second scenario of a continuous decline from here occurs, there is no need to be too discouraged or surprised.
A -3% discrepancy is something we can simply endure. This is because we are not engaging in short-term trading where we buy today and see a price drop tomorrow. Since our intention is to safely buy at the low point with this conviction, and then hold on while observing the market synergy, we will continue to monitor and check, but we will refrain from short-term trading.
Short-term trading in a mixed market like this... I mentioned in the last broadcast that it is even more dangerous. We will continue with a flow where we buy at low prices and wait for a signal, responding to the market's "junior" positions. Ultimately, the key seems to be the last week of April, the week when major tech stocks have their earnings announcements clustered together.
Also, the market is currently discussing a probability of nearly 90% that the FMC interest rate hike in May will be 0.5%. So, when that happens, perhaps the market is acknowledging the possibility of a 0.5% rate hike on May 13 or 4 and is currently in the process of reflecting that in stock prices. If that is the case, the moment the FMC raises 0.5%, the market could once again give a signal, such as an answer.
This is because the price has already reflected it. I am saying that it has become a shelf-type pattern. It is a trend. If you look at it now, this is a weekly chart. The candle from two weeks ago is currently positioned high up here. Now, let's make an assumption. If... Assuming the price maintains this state without falling further, and considering the two-week period leading up to the FMC meeting in early May, if the candles form during these two weeks, the 4-week moving average will naturally halt its downward slope and prepare for a breakout.
The timing fits perfectly. If we follow this scenario, I have a hopeful expectation that a full-scale trend shift might occur after the FMC meeting in the first week of May. However, these conditions are currently just predictions; regarding how it actually unfolds, I will respond by observing market trends and seeing what phenomena occur when that time comes.
So, how will I respond? It will essentially be whether to make additional purchases or wait a little longer. I recommend a buy strategy based on the 5-day moving average crossover point; at this stage, I recommend a 1-set ETF. Also, focus on the 20-day moving average crossover point, and when that appears, I strongly recommend a 3x leverage ETF.
What I mean by this is that you should adjust the leverage (multiplier) of the ETF at that time depending on the trend. Okay, the 5-day moving average is coming down right now. I mentioned that if the 5-day moving average stays down like this and then forms a tunnel, it is a buy signal. You have bought it, but you shouldn't just buy anything blindly.
I recommend buying a 1-2 multiplier 2t. The reason, as I explained, is that there is more supply above, so even if it goes up, the price needs to maintain a range-bound trend. That is why we are going with a 1x multiplier. Oh, and it is not the 5-day moving average, but the 20-day moving average that is currently on a downward path.
As you saw earlier, the 20-day moving average was falling like this. In that case, the time will come when the 21-pyeong line, which is allowing this, breaks out upward again. When that happens, I recommend buying this 3x multiplier at that time. The reason is right here. When the 20-day moving average turns around and the time comes, the 61-pyeong line will also make progress like this.
And the 5-day moving average will naturally be making an upward turn here. Then, you have probably heard a lot about "positive alignment." These three moving averages are in positive alignment, and... When it turns into a consolidation pattern with an upward slope, I will use a 3x multiplier to drive the price.
However, just because the 5- day moving average has changed right now doesn't mean the long-term 61-day and 20-day moving averages will shift. Therefore, I recommend a conservative approach using ETFs based on the numbers. This is the standard strategy; this is the standard play. However, for those who are already holding 3-basis positions at this time, cutting your losses now and riding the wave will result in losses.
You will have to leave this humble position. I absolutely do not think it is necessary to suffer such losses. It might be a bit heartbreaking and you might experience some stress while stuck in a 2-box range, but what can you do? You have no choice but to endure. You have held on through the downtrend so far, and if you put in a little more effort when the uptrend shows a consolidation pattern, you will be able to recover from the downtrend once again when the time comes for a sustained upward trend.
For those considering a new purchase now, please follow the standard strategy. Buy at the 1-basis level now, and wait a bit for the 3-basis level. It is a very good strategy to adopt a strategy of moving from a 1x position to a 3x multiple position later on. There is nothing you can do about what the game currently holds.
If you are making a new purchase, sticking to standard play is very safe. Also, I recommend using your knowledge as a way to maximize your returns. Thank you for watching this long video at such a late hour. Let's stay together until the day we become rich. Thank you.
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