저자: CameronStewart,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 매출 4B→11B(연 11%), EBITDA 852M→3.2B(연 25%), 잉여현금흐름 약 3B로 우량하나 EV 145B, EV/EBITDA 약 45배로 고평가. 10년 후 주당 가치 약 317달러로 현재가 312달러와 비슷해 IRR 약 5%에 그침. 주당 약 100달러 부근이 적정 매수가. 주식보상(stock comp)에 따른 희석도 지적.
다듬은 글
hello welcome back to rational investing my name is Cameron Stewart CFA thank you so much for joining it I greatly appreciate the enthusiasm on the channel and all the interest thank you so much please comment subscribe let me know what you think let me know what you want to do let me know what you want to see today we're going to look at NVIDIA it's a hot stock everyone's been asking about it it's part of our a little mini series intel AMD in the video before we do it i want to remind you our core values what we look for this is an intrinsic value channel we are dedicated to finding the value of a company comparing it to the market and looking at when the market eventually realizes the price is undervalued they will close that gap and we will make excise return I'm primarily interested in be in the market that's what this challenge dedicated to do and we search for stocks that we think we're gonna do it over a decade how do we do it we looking five key attributes we look for top-line revenue growth earnings growth is defined by eBay da free cash flow growth solid balance sheet and a well-priced stock I'm gonna direct you go back and look at my Domino's versus Google IPO video that is a clear example of what a well priced stock can do for the return Domino's absolutely smoking Google with 5,000 percent return over 15 years why because it went public and a cheap price is overlooked and even though I give it v last characteristic and our stack up it's probably the most single highly rated aspect that you can look for when making an investment buying a good company at a great price is much better than buying a great price great company at a bad price all right enough of that you're here to watch in video let's dive right down now this is their annual report nice 10k a good solid 300 pages definitely print out definitely read it what you're gonna find is an outstanding company hats off to the leadership team there they have built one heck of an enterprise it is well positioned within the market it has great cash flow it has great balance sheet I really really like it but let's go through the numbers and let's see why I would sonot here we go revenue revenue starts it's four billion dollars and goes to ten billion almost eleven billion dollars outstanding top-line growth that's eleven percent on an annual basis which is really big for a large company and I'd love to see it so that the first box is checked top-line revenue growth let's look at eBay da so we're taking operating income we're gonna add depreciation amortization and we get a bit up eBay da has gone from eight hundred and fifty two million dollars to three point two two billion that is an annual eBay dog growth rate of 25 percent that's Danny I have standing hands down like when I look at when I look at the financials my little growth there's no denying yet top lining revenue growth a double digits bottom bottom line revenue growth of twice top line that means margins are expanding and top lines growth that is parabolic fantastic eBay da and we're gonna run into a little issue here eBay da we begin with a debt they have debt but it's manageable that's fine right debt less cash I love to see that when they have excess cash in fact Benjamin granny go all the way back to secures analysis the famous and Benjamin grab would love the balance sheet here because it's one of the rare instances we have current assets are greater than all of debt absolutely outstanding they have so much cash so much AR and so little debt that their their their their current assets will take out all the debt but that is a rarity in these days with leveraged companies and I love to see it kudos the CFO for maintaining that I really like it so when we get value alright we're going to take debt we're gonna less excess excess cash which they have will take the market cap that shares outstanding times price we'll add it all up minus the cash and you get enterprise value enterprise value started at 6.7 billion and it has ballooned to one hundred and forty five billion dollars fantastic growth and for those people who bought and NVIDIA a decade ago my hats off to you you could instant message me and let me know about this one because I would have loved it onto that rod the stock has gone up tremendously and you can see that from the value here right we're when we talk about expensive or cheap stock I don't mean the actual price you pay that's just a number it flashes on a screen I'm talking about the relative price to enterprise value that is how many years of cash flow of eBay da are you giving up to buy the enterprise of the company right if I take the enterprise a hundred and forty five billion dollars and I divide it by their earnings of 3.2 that is 45 years of earnings that I'm essentially giving to the seller the person I bought the stock that that means if they don't grow at all I have to wait 45 years for that for that investment to pay back now that's not why people that buy them by the deal because that sounds terrible they're buying because of the growth I get it but the growth they have to experience for that to pay off is tremendous and think about the Google IPO right Google went public at 22 times even 22 times is kind of expensive and Google had meteoric growth but its return all been great is not as good as Domino's that was cheaper okay so I think if you're getting in at this 45 target that is very very expensive and it's gonna affect the return certainly as they grow that 45 multiple is gonna come back down to an industry average or a market average like the SP Y around 18 times and you're gonna it's gonna cap your return but everything else looks fantastic top-line revenue growth definitely check it double digits earnings growth check debt outstanding Ben Graham would love this company but the price prices looking expensive let's look at cash flow cash flow we see the same picture here right strong operating cash flow dump a 20% year-over-year growth just like eBay daf check mark accounting standard that's fantastic capex capex is considerably less than cash flow from operations that means every time they make a little investment into infrastructure it pays off big in X cash flow right they generate cash flow of three hundred and three point five billion dollars they had to put in six hundred million of reinvestment that means almost three hundred give me three billion dollars was free cash they have almost no debt so that cash passes through to the cash flow statements to me to the free cash flow to equity it's fantastic so as a result free cash flow per share is strong and you get an average yield of seven percent excellent that's we want to see I want to say one thing though I think that there has been or not a thing there has been a lot of share based shareholder comp given this company now they're growing the stock price they're hitting their numbers good for them but when they hit their numbers they're getting large bonuses very large bonus if you read this that's in that's in here it's lays it out management company management took eight hundred and forty four million five hundred and fifty five million and four hundred million dollars of stock comp that's dilution to you and last three years that's that's that's massive that's that's over a billion and a half almost 1.7 billion dollars of dilution that in order to keep this this share count flat they are by using their cash to buy back the stock and that means that's cash that can't be distributed to you it is a cash cost and they're paying management don't get me wrong reward management for excellent performance this strikes me as a little rich but not gonna knock them the performance has been amazing so that's that's really the only complaint I can find so let's stretch this forward right if we take this forward and a cash flow basis what does the cash will look like in ten years again I'm going to pick up the growth rate I'm going to give it a twenty five percent growth right a free cash flow per share I'm gonna grow it in the future at a declining rate to be conservative and it's going to produce a value so I pick up my free cash flow per share eight point seven seven eight dollars and seventy seven cents I give it the growth rate and I'm coming up for a long-term estimate of around eighteen dollars of cash flow to equity I give that an average yield and I get a three hundred and fifty-five price tag same thing here with eBay da I pick up the eBay Doc continue the good growth but not not meteoric because we have to have some rationale here okay and I give it a twenty times a twenty times eeep eBay Dom multiple and I get an enterprise value of a hundred and sixty two billion dollars let's just a little bit of debt let's plus the cash they would have and I get two hundred seventy seven dollars let me show you what the issue is the issue is what's the price three twelve okay I got a I got a three twelve price today I'm estimating albeit conservative you might argue that the growth rate is going to be higher and I would agree with you I think the hope the growth rate they should beat that but the point is I'm not willing to pay for it I'll give them some credit for the for the growth early on and give them 25 percent next couple years fine but a long term I'm gonna force that growth rate down because I don't even buy for that means my long-term price target is roughly equal to what it is today and that when you put in an IRR gives me five percent right so just to recap for those new in the channel what I'm doing here is I'm taking the cash flow that I generated in the o'shea time bring it forward I'm entering my purchase price of current share price 312 I'm exiting in my ten-year forecast 317 summon up and discount it for a 5-4 for an IRR not discounting just giving the IRR of this stream of cash flow what that means is you make five percent on your money every year for a decade and that is way too little for the risk you're gonna take in terms of a return that's one and a half times you basically get your money back and a half a turn of your money over a decade and there are other dock investments you can make that will turn more with greater certainty or you can go into debt instruments that I'll pay your roughly that with a little bit more certainty so let's recap here we've got top-line revenue growth outstanding earnings growth outstanding a balance sheet rock saw Ben Graham would love it free cash flows excellent well priced it is not it's too expensive all the growth that you're in experience is already baked in the price and you're essentially giving that up if you buy the stock now what I would do is I wait for the stock to come back down to earth something's gonna happen and it's gonna come down think of it this way all right if they generate an urn they're at 50 what I say 50 times earnings 54 I think that means for every dollar of eBay da Enterprise is 50 $54 and that works going up as earnings growth happens you take the growth times 54 stock price moves up even higher but it works invert adversely as well if they should miss earnings that 54 is a multiply on the downside too so you can see a wide swing on the downside and that is a great time to consider entering the stock what does it look like if I were to distribute that out all right so what we can do is we can give you a range if I do a the current price is 312 I'll go plus minus 10% string that out to give you a range of stock prices and if I plug that stock price into our model it'll give you what the IRR is at different purchase price so what you'll see is if you buy this stock here it is if you buy this stock at 312 which is where we are now you get five percent IRR okay not great you need to wait for the stock price to come down in fact way down below 300 two hundred and twenty seven dollars before it ever gets near what we would be paying for it so for that I'm gonna give this da a man why because I love the stock it's just overpriced so sit back wait for it to come down to earth last thing I want to show you is what I would pay for the stock so if they did three points even 3.2 billion dollars of eBay da I would say II bid on give this a twenty percent twenty times handle or something reasonable or even an 18 for the market right that would give your enterprise value you're gonna subtract the cash you're gonna add the cat subtract the debt you'll add the cash and I'm gonna take this divided by the shares outstanding which is here 100 bucks so I think if you can get this stock for $100 that's an appropriate place to appropriate price to pay for this type of growth all right my name is Cameron Stewart CFA thank you for watching rational investing this has been a review of in video hope you liked it the bike
Comments 0