저자: CameronStewart,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아 밸류에이션 분석. 매출·EBITDA 고성장과 무부채, 현금 풍부를 확인하나 시장 멀티플이 10배→54배로 크게 팽창해 가격이 비싸다고 판단. 10년 후 적정가 약 290~295달러 제시, 현재가 247달러 기준 연 5% 수준 수익률 전망, 멀티플 축소 위험 경고. 인텔이 AMD·엔비디아보다 나을 것이라는 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
hello welcome to rational investing my name is cameron stewart cfa thank you very much watch the channel all the comments and subscribers i greatly appreciate it this week up we're going to look at nvidia as part of our three-part series we did intel we did amd now we're going to do nvidia take a look at this monster monster growth stock figure out how much cash money it makes and what we think we can earn if you buy the stock today and hold it for a decade ready let's get to work but all right before we start on nvidia i want to remind everyone the five key factors that we use to value all stocks with this channel number one top line revenue growth gotta have it number two earnings growth enterprise level earnings need to be growing number three uh strong free cash flow number four low debt number five well-priced stock what is a well-priced stock i want a conservative forecast that's going to beat the market that's it very simple to say very hard to do let's dive into nvidia let's take a look at their revenue so the nine years of revenue 2013 4.1 billion dollars grew to 4.6 5 6.9 continued to grow with a little step down in 2019 but it continued to produce a monster monster all-time high for them 26.9 billion dollars great job team fantastic that is a 26 percent annualized growth rate which has been fairly steady uh whichever well i i take that back it's it's more than doubled the last couple years but they were even managing to grow it here in the last decade which which i really liked ebitda followed the same trend right monster growth every single year absolutely amazing and then last year they just crushed it the pandemic uh crushed earnings for these guys and they're forecasting uh further crushing of earnings again enterprise level i'm not looking at eps earnings per share i'm looking at enterprise level ebitda earnings that's a 41 growth rate you'll notice the growth rate here is faster than here that means margins are growing so ebitda margin is getting wider and wider and wider as this growth is outpacing this growth let's take a look at how much debt they have 1.3 billion dollars to 11.6 billion dollars that's a strong growth rate of 30 percent but it's nothing when you look at their earnings last year they made 11.2 billion dollars of earnings they have 11.6 billion dollars of debt no problem one year operating and they can pay that off completely but what we also want to look at is excess cash outstanding that's simply cash that's on the balance sheet that's not even in the checking account to run the business it's so much cash it's excess and it sits typically in the short term investment line on the balance sheet that's the one i pull and i thought it was fascinating you've got 3.5 billion dollars of jack sitting in the short-term investment line of the balance sheet in 2013 and total revenue was 4.1 billion so they had almost as much cash as they had revenue sitting on the balance sheet that's amazing it's a rarity i would say and then that number's done nothing but gone north as they've made more and more cash over this time and they're at 19 billion dollars of cash on the balance sheet not including what's in their checking account and what i like about that is that cash can pay off that debt right away you might even argue why even have this debt some of this is operating lease which isn't actually debt it's like your rent payments or you lease equipment and you don't buy it for cash you just lease it there are reasons to do that there are reasons companies have debt on their balance sheet while they still have lots of cash but nevertheless we want to take into account market cap absolute smoke show uh nine billion dollars has gone to 620 billion dollars in market cap that's incredible if i add the market cap and the debt less the cash i get enterprise value enterprise value 7 to 600 that's almost 90 percent growth over that period of time absolutely amazing we covered this before net debt zero they have zero debt that that's checks our boxes we want to see and i want to stop here and give a pause and show you this amazing curve that has happened uh to the to the owners of nvidia over the last decade market multiple you bought a company had 10 for 10 times ebitda which is what semiconductors trade for they trade in single digits uh eight seven ten times that's fine fine fine range for a company you bought it at eight billion dollars seven eight billion dollars enterprise value it was making four billion so you can see right there four billion a year revenue decent earnings uh had more cash on the balance it was a great time to buy the stock right there and then what happened they continued to perform sales grew earnings grow grew and market multiple expanded tremendously from 10 times roughly to 54 times that means every single dollar they made was valued at 10 times back in the day is now valued at 54 times currently so what's happened here is you had a dramatic expansion of both earnings and market multiple which is compounded to give a hockey stick curve to the historical return on nvidia and the question is what happens here i will also note here that in 2000 when it was this 2017 2018 the market multiple halved from 45 times to to uh to 21 times and what happened to the stock price right there 61 to 35 dollars it halved like that in a year and that's what happens when you get something with a high market multiple you can have a year where growth doesn't live up to expectations something happens and it's half right away and you lose half your investments be very careful with buying stocks that are that are high rated like this we we should not see this continue and i think over time this number is going to come back down and that's going to weigh on return if you bought the stock here fantastic great for you buying it here is a different decision that we need to make we're going to take a look at that all right let's take a look at cash flow that's my favorite statement it's your favorite statement let's take a look at the cash flow statement so cash flow from operation the first third of the cash flow statement right 800 million dollars of cash flow operation has grown to 9.1 9.1 billion dollars that's a 35 annualized growth rate that's in line with ebada so they're expensing the cash that's coming through i like that they are doing a good job on the accounting side kudos to the team cap x is extremely extremely light for some company that's making nine billion dollars of jack basically ten percent of the money they have to reinvest in the business that is very very light and it means most this money is going to flow all the way through now they borrowed a little debt here but that's basically not it doesn't really matter uh they have they have zero debt they can they can totally borrow money if they wish uh what i'll do is i'll zero this out so you can see what the cash flow per share looks like without the debt because it is kind of an anomaly there it is three thousand two cents is the cash flow per share yielding 1.3 is the cure i'll put those debt back so i have it right but that's what we're dealing with we're dealing with a stock that's making three dollars and fifty cents a free cash flow yielding one point one point three percent uh trading at a 45 times enterprise value multiple so this is a rich stock multiple is high yield low that is a very rich stock let's forecast this business and see what it turns into all right so here we go if i read the quarterly return for nvidia they forecast q1 they're telling us it's going to be very very strong quarter you can annualize that get a feel for what the full year looks like that's a 33 move year over year that puts ebitda just shy of 15 billion which is a monster monster move in this market now i do expect them to continue to grow and so does the street but i don't know if it's going to go to 33 every single year i got to bring it down to some degree to be somewhat conservative for me as my own investor and i'm going to bring that down over time now what's going to happen is the ebitda is going to go from 15 billion to 40 billion dollars as a monster monster move and there's a lot of growth they did to that i'm also giving a very strong ebitda market multiple 18 times i still think that's a premium to all of the semiconductor manufacturers and it's substantially lower than where they're trading at currently at 54 times and i think this number is going to come back down and that decrease is going to weigh on the stock return even though earnings is growing now go back and take a look at my microsoft 30-year video where i look at 30 years of history in the dot com they were trading it at 100 times enterprise value and that collapse and comes down even though every single year the earnings grow the stock price cratered because the stock is both a multi a combination of growth of these stock earnings and the market multiple trades at so this is going to come down that puts it at 700 million 700 billion enterprise value no debt a little bit of cash i get 750 billion dollars enterprise value divided by shares i get 295 dollars per share on the enterprise value method for value in video now if i take a look at free cash flow remember we said about 3 and 50 cents if i put aside debt i grow that at 33 i get 424.27 that basically balloons up to almost just just over 11.50 cents a 11.58 cents and i put a yield on that that's a lower yield so it's a higher yield than the 1.8 it's currently trading at so i'm still giving it kind of a premium and i get uh just shy of 290 289 dollars per share for nvidia out a decade from now now i can look in the stock market today and i can buy all the shares i want at 247 a share and when i look at our value 10 years out i think we're going to be in the 290 to 295 range we're calling it 292.
if i put this into an ir calculator right i get the cash flow which is strong for this business over that period of time i buy it here i sell it here and what it produces unfortunately is a five percent annual return i think a lot of the money that has been made in stock are people who bought it a decade ago at 10 times enterprise value and are now owning it at 54 times that expansion of the market multiple is driving a lion's share of the return yes earnings have grown substantial substantially but if i were to put this stock back at nine times let's see how much the stock would be worth if it's still traded where it used to back then what i can do is i can take market cap ask me i can take enterprise value and i can multiply it times my enterprise value number that's 109 billion dollars of enterprise value and what i can do is i can take this less debt plus cash that's market cap divided by the shares outstanding and i get a price dollar of 48.28 cents if i were to apply the current market multiple which at the time they had they were growing in the future they were still projecting growth so that's still a growth stock back then just not nearly as fast if i applied the same market multiple it's a 46 dollar stock it's currently trading at 240 a share that's a monster decline that decline is going to weigh on the return and for me it's not worth the risk i want the growth i absolutely do it's a wonderful company but i think that the market multiple decline possibility is too much to risk so let's recap the five key factors number one top line revenue growth absolutely smoke shows fantastic earnings growth yes very very high free cash flow yeah check the box low debt it's zero check the box well priced no i think it's expensive i think it was well priced earlier in the decade or 10 years ago i think now it's very very overpriced and i would be careful about buying it if we put this return into a matrix it's currently at 2.47 it's 5 return if it goes up i think it's even less of a buy i can't get it to be a buy i'm talking 100 less than sub 180 which i don't know if it's going to happen so for me i think there's just too much risk here i don't know what the future growth curve is going to look like we already have 25 we have to be 35 30 25 annualized earnings growth which is hard to do out for a decade uh plus then the market multiple needs to be maintained i think in this market of rising interest rates the competitive landscape that is the semiconductor business i'm going to give it um i'm going to give it a met i'm not giving you the bad because i love the company i think it's a great company but i can't get over the fact it's trading at such a high multiple when it could have bought it for a lot cheaper back in the day i'm going to roll my dice go with intel i think it's a cheaper bit investment i'm going to bet 10 years now from now intel will outperform amd nvidia if you want to learn how to do this maybe you don't like my growth assumptions you want to do your own i can give you this financial model check out my website cashflowinvestingpro.com i teach a course on how to become a financial analyst how to learn to do this for yourself i'll give you the excel sheet i'll show you 10ks i'll teach you how to value apple and you can build a portfolio for yourself having valued each of these each of the stocks in your portfolio and you'll be much better positioned for the future if you don't want to do the valuation yourself but just want to get valuation feedback i do one pagers that on my website the cashflow club same website click on the cash flow club in the upper left hand corner of the link and i just summarize businesses that i'm reviewing for this show i do one one show a week on youtube but i release maybe a dozen or so reviews every single month in the cashflow club definitely check that out cashflowinvestingpro.com thank you for for watching the review on nvidia i really really appreciate it hit the like and subscribe button if you will throw a comment down below tell me what stock you want to see next uh also if you want to see other stocks on valuations of various value companies up is going to pop a couple new videos check those out i really appreciate the views again i hope everyone's safe thank you very much watching the video take care and happy investing bye
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