저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 부채·정치·지정학 리스크가 겹친 환경에서 광범위한 분산투자와 현금 보유를 권하며, AI 투자는 기존 강자 중심으로 접근하라고 말한다. 거시 환경: 미국 정부의 부채 의존이 최근 20~30년간 구조적으로 가속화됐고, 부채 이자 부담이 세수에서 차지하는 비중이 커지며 경제 성장이 둔화될 수 있다고 본다. 금리와 채권시장: 국채 공급이 늘어나는데 수요가 받쳐주지 않으면 금리가 계속 오를 수 있으며, 세계가 높은 금리에 대비돼 있지 않다고 경고한다. JP모건 다이먼의 7% 금리 발언을 인용. 정치·지정학: 미국 양당의 이념 격차가 벌어져 포퓰리즘이 부상했고, 중국의 도전 등 외부 갈등도 겹쳐 있다. 이 다섯 가지 요인이 동시에 나타나는 것은 과거에 없던 상황이라고 본다. 투자 전략: 자산군·통화·국가를 넓게 분산하는 것이 핵심이며, 모르는 것을 인정하고 리스크를 줄이라고 권한다. AI 투자: 기술 변화에 대응하지 못하는 기업은 피하고, 신기술 선도 기업 중 승자를 고르기는 어렵다. 가장 유망한 쪽은 기존의 강한 경쟁우위를 가진 대형 기업(예: 마이크로소프트, 구글)이 신기술을 활용하는 경우다. 현금: 현재 예금 금리가 높아 현금도 괜찮은 자리이며, 장기적으로는 주식·부동산에 밀리지만 전략의 일부로는 나쁘지 않다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Ray doio did an interview in Singapore recently where he said that cash is a good place for your money right now Dalo built one of the biggest investment firms of all time and has now shifted to analyzing hundreds of years of economies to understand the changing environment we find ourselves in today so what are these radical changes that we're going to experience over the next few years and how does Dalo believe that you should be investing to both benefit from the new paradigm while also protecting your wealth from the debt crisis Ray Delio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and grew grew it into one of the biggest Asset Management firms in the world and a large part of his success is attributable to his obsession with studying the economic patterns that Ripple across Generations most people expect things to play out based on their own personal experiences as well as events that have happened within their lifetime but many of the most significant events that the world faces happen over 50 100 or even 200 year Cycles things like world wars pandemics or changes in World Order can happen just once or even no times in a person's life so there's a tremendous need to study the past to see how these events came to be there are three large scale events that are happening today that no one listening to this video has experienced before because they haven't happened in our lifetime the first is the accelerating use of debt by government and you might think wait a second hasn't government always use debt and yes they have uh but recently and by recently I mean the last 20 or 30 years there's been a distinct shift in how government uses debt as a part of their broader policy instead of debt being used occasionally When government needs to spend more than they collect in tax revenue the government now practically never spends less money than they earn in Revenue meaning every year they borrow an accelerating amount of money with no intention of stopping a problem that has been growing for decades but moved forward considerably after the huge debt that was needed after both the global financial crisis and then the pandemic but again governments can borrow increasing amounts of money for very long periods of time the problem the US specifically faces is the inflection point regarding interest payments on that debt for part of government's spending goes towards debt servicing paying the interest on their $33 trillion pile of debt what doio is saying here is that as the debt pile grows a larger and larger percentage of tax revenue goes towards simply servicing that debt paying down the debt paying the interest on that debt which means a larger piece of the money that the government is bringing in is not going towards redistributing into the economy and fueling the economy in the way that tax revenue should and the consequence of that is the e economy grows slower it's not as productive meaning businesses earn less and may need to cut costs and downsize further fueling and economic slowdown but the other problem is the supply and demand equation of the bond market interest rates are impacted by the Federal Reserve decision to raise the federal funds rate or not but it's important to remember that the bond market is also just a free market whose prices are dictated by supply and demand if the US government is flooding the bond market with new bonds because they're borrowing more and more money so they need to issue bonds and sell them in the market then someone needs to be there in the bond market on the other side buying those bonds and if they aren't there to buy them interest rates will keep going up and that's a problem because the world probably isn't prepared for higher rates Jamie Diamond just this week was quoted saying even 7% rates could be an absolute disaster so that's the US debt situation I've spoken about this in a few other videos so I won't go too much longer into this but it's the first of the big three factors that we haven't seen in our lifetime before the next two factors are the internal political conflicts and the external geopolitical conflicts the US has two fairly distinct political camps and unless you've had your eyes and ears closed you've probably noticed that the conflicts have been pretty heated in the last few years and if you've noticed this it's not your imagination the two political parties have actually moved apart from each other in terms of views pretty distinctly over the past few decades the left has gone further to the left and the right has gone further to the right it's why you're seeing a rise in populism political candidates that campaign on the promise of fighting against the elites against the status quo people like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump and then there's external conflicts where another country challenges the world's current order the US in this case being challenged by China and well we know exactly what happened last time there was a real threat to the world order so that's the environment we're currently in we're experiencing five major factors some of which haven't occurred in our lifetime but certainly we've never experienced all five at the same time but how should we invest given the uncertainty over for the next few years doio is a big proponent of wide diversification in your portfolio diversification across asset classes currencies in countries which if Done Right can reduce the risk in your portfolio while still providing a healthy rate of return something doio says here is extremely underrated what he doesn't know is going to be much more important than what he does know despite a number of decades studying macroeconomics and financial markets still to this day he finds things that happen in the economy that surprise him and that's simply because financial markets are complex there's a lot of different moving Parts which means the outcomes of all of those moving Parts isn't always obvious and so diversifying is a good way to protect yourself against some of those unknowns for example if you're unsure about how the US dollar is going to change relative to the Australian dollar and like me an Australian who has business in the US is going to be exposed to that shift throughout my lifetime then I'd want to be Diversified in both currencies Doo then swings to talk about picking individual companies which is something some people may want to do as a part of their overall strategy and the most relevant discussion today is probably around how we can invest regarding artificial intelligence if that's something you're interested in doing and when it comes to Big shifts in technology like AI it's important to think of companies in a couple of different key categories first there's the companies that will completely ignore the new technology and will most likely be left behind or displaced by newer or other businesses those companies generally speaking you probably don't want to invest in they're likely to uh suffer the same fate that every company ultimately faces in capitalism which is uh going out of business then there are the companies that are the bleeding edge disruptors the ones actually creating the new technologies and while some of these will end up being huge success stories it's going to be difficult to pick out the winners from the rest of the bubble think about being in the late '90s and trying to pick out Amazon from all of the other companies Amazon which at the time was a little online book retailer that was the company that you had to invest in not all of these other companies like Yahoo for example which had a hundred billion valuation at some point and then was sold for a few million dollars or something like that a little bit later but it's very difficult to actually know which of the new disruptors are going to actually lead to to success most of them will just be hype companies as a part of a bubble and you'll lose all your money on them the last group are established companies that go on to use new technology to advance their competitive position these are the companies doio thinks come out best an example of this may be something like a Microsoft or a Google wellestablished companies with deep competitive advantages that will use their enormous resources to capitalize on the new technology and then Doo likes a bit of cash at the moment and that's because cash offers a pretty good return right now going to the days of a 1% savings account you can get 3 and half 4% or even more depending on where you are in the world and where interest rates sit right now but cash isn't a terrible place to at least have some money you know cash generally over the very long term will lose out quite considerably to other asset classes like stocks or property but as a part of a broader strategy it's not a terrible place at least uh according to doio w
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