저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 소액 투자자라면 대형 자금이 놓치는 극단적 저평가 종목을 찾을 수 있으나, 이는 많은 노력이 필요한 길이며 월가의 투기·과장 광고 분위기는 경계해야 한다. 버핏의 과거 성과: 1951년 벤 그레이엄을 만난 직후부터 10년간 연평균 약 50% 수익을 기록했고, 1956~1969년 연 29%(다우 7%)였다고 언급했다. 당시 자금이 작아 1만~1.5만 달러로 극단적으로 싸게 거래되는 기업에 투자할 수 있었다. 소액 투자 방식: 버핏은 현재와 같이 미래 현금흐름 대비 가장 싸게 거래되는 기업을 찾는 방식을 그대로 쓸 것이라고 했다. 소액이면 투자 대상 범위가 훨씬 넓어 기회가 많다. 자금 규모와 기대수익: 자금이 커질수록 투자 가능한 종목 범위가 급격히 줄고 기대수익 곡선이 떨어진다. 수천만~수억 달러 규모에서는 경쟁자가 많아 같은 방식으로 수익을 내기 어렵다. 필요한 노력: 버핏은 레퍼런스 북(Moody's 산업·운송·금융 디렉터리)을 두 번 통독하며 모든 기업을 살펴봤다고 밝혔다. 이런 방식은 대규모 자금에는 비현실적이지만, 소액이라도 열정과 노력이 있다면 좋은 기회를 찾을 수 있다는 입장이다. 찰리 멍거 의견: 똑똑한 사람이 자금을 모으지 못하면 알려지지 않은 종목에서 비정상적 저평가 기회를 찾아야 하지만, 긴 시간과 힘든 작업이 필요하다. 월가 비판: 월가의 똑똑한 사람들은 쉽고 빠르게 돈을 벌려 하며, 타인의 돈을 관리하거나 희망과 탐욕을 수익화하는 데 몰두한다. 헤지펀드 열풍, 강세장에서 쉽게 돈을 던지는 투자자들, 최근 월가 대박은 탁월한 성과보다 광고에서 나왔다고 지적했다. 멍거의 경고: 현재 상황은 '부적절(indecent)'하며 열풍과 쉬운 돈 추구가 지나치다. 투자 광고는 오도하고, TV의 주식 투기 강조가 과도하다고 비판했다. 리스크: 소액 투자의 성공 가능성은 있으나 장기간의 힘든 노력이 필요하며, 대중적 투기 열풍에 휩쓸리지 말아야 한다. 출연자 전망: 구체적 자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없음. 전반적으로 시장 과열 경계 및 장기 가치투자 관점을 강조.
다듬은 글
I'm Michael Zenga from Danvers, Massachusetts. This is the city whose orchestra Mr. Buffett so generously sent to the Rose Bowl Parade last year. So you are a very popular person in my city. Good morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. Mr. Buffett, I wanted to ask you this question last week when I met you after the Gillette annual meeting, but I was scared.
Now I have nothing to pressure me, so I'll start. As I read, between 1956 and 1969 you achieved the best quantitative results of your career. 29% annualized versus only 7% for the Dow. Your approach then was different from yours now . You looked for a lot of undervalued stocks, paying less attention to competitive advantage or favorable economics, and sold them pretty quickly.
As your capital grew, you changed your approach to buying undervalued, great companies with favorable long-term economics. My question is: if you were investing a small amount today, what approach would you use? Well, I would use the approach that I think I'm using now: try to look for businesses that I think are selling at the lowest price relative to the discounted cash flows that they will generate in the future.
But if I were working with a small amount of money, that universe would be huge compared to the universe of possible ideas I'm working with now. You mentioned that the period from 1956 to 1969 was the best. Actually, my best period was before. This was right after I met Ben Graham in early 1951, but from late 1950 for the next 10 years the average return was about 50% per year.
And they seemed to be 37 points better than the Dow for the year or something like that. But back then I was working with a tiny, just meager amount of money. So I would flip through the tomes of business descriptions and find one or two that I could invest $10,000 or $15,000 in that were just ridiculously, absolutely ridiculously cheap.
And, obviously, as money became more abundant, the universe of possible ideas began to shrink sharply. Times were better for it then, but I think if you were working with a small amount of money, with the same experience that Charlie and I have, the same ideas and the same abilities, you could make very significant amounts, but once you start dealing with millions, many millions, the expectation curve just drops off dramatically.
That's the nature of these things. A lot of, you know, when you move into things that you can invest millions of dollars in, you have a lot of competitors looking at it, and they don't look at it the same way I did when I started. When I started, I flipped through the reference books page after page.
I mean, I've probably looked through 20,000 pages in Moody's industrial, transportation, banking, and financial directories, and I 've done it twice. And I really, you know, looked at every business. I did n't look at some of them very carefully. Well, that's an impractical way to invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.
So I would say if you are working with a small amount of money and you are really interested in the business and willing to work, you will find something, if you are me, I have no doubt about that. You will find things that promise very large profits compared to what we can provide with large sums of money.
Charlie? Well, yes, I think that's right. A brilliant person who can't get money from other people and works with a very small amount of money should probably work with very unknown stocks, looking for unusual undervalued opportunities. But, you know, you could. It's such a small world. This may be a path for one person to rise, but it is long and hard work.
Yes, most smart people, unfortunately, on Wall Street, think they can make a lot more money a lot easier, just, uh, one way or another, and I , uh, get a percentage of other people's money, or, or, uh, providing services in some way so that people...I mean, monetizing hope and greed—that's a way to make a lot of money.
And now it's very...just take hedge funds. I mean, I've had a couple of friends call me in the last month who don't know anything about investing money. They were unsuccessful at everything, and you know, one of them called me the other day and said, "Well, I'm starting a small hedge fund, $125 million." He talked about it.
And it's like the idea that since it's only $125 million, maybe we should invest $10 million or something like that. I mean, if you looked at Schedule D of his 1040 tax return for the past 20 years, you would think he should be mowing his lawns. But he can get his $125 million . I mean, you know, it just amazes me how willingly people throw money away during a bull market because they think it's easy.
And, of course, that's exactly what they felt. And that's how it was with stocks a few years ago. Next year they'll come up with something else. But, uh, the biggest fortunes made, you know, on Wall Street in recent years have been made not through great results, but mostly through great advertising.
Charlie, do you have anything to add? Well , I would say it even more strongly. I think the current situation is indecent. I think there's too much mania around. Too much chasing easy money. There's too much, uh , misleading advertising about investments. There's too much , uh, emphasis on stock speculation on television.
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