Nvidia Delivered ‘Superstar Performance’ in Q4, According to Dan Ives

요약 보기

엔비디아 4분기 실적은 데이터센터 수요와 CapEx 확대에 따른 '슈퍼스타급' 성과이며, 다음 분기 가이던스도 시장 컨센서스를 크게 상회한다. 주가는 4개월간 정체됐지만 AI 인프라 지출 확대의 파급효과(AMD, 마이크론, TSMC 등)가 아직 충분히 반영되지 않았다고 본다. 경쟁 우려(AMD, 브로드컴, 빅테크 자체 칩)에도 수요 대비 공급 부족이 지속되고 있어 목표가를 300달러로 상향했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Dan Ives of Wedbush raising his price target on the stock to 300, writing this. Nvidia is at the beginning of this transformation of superstar narrative playing out for the tech world. Dan joins us now from Dan, welcome to the show. I'm going to repeat myself. I feel like a broken record, but it's going to be asked if that's the case.

02. Why is this stock done? Nothing for four months. Look, I think right now I'm in the streets, this glass half empty view. You look at these numbers, these are Michael Jordan like I mean, in terms of the, you know, the beat that you saw in data center, the 70 billion for next quarter minutes, that's almost five or 700 bips above street.

03. Look, I think you hit it right now. Everyone focus on the losers. How is going to hurt? The reality is, is that it's all about CapEx numbers and data center demand. We saw from in video the bubble essentially gets thrown out the window. And look, I think this is a stock that's ultimately like up 3 to 5% today.

04. And in my opinion, like $300 we talk about, that's probably B's keys to where this ultimately goes. And then we're just in one of those narratives. You follow the numbers, superstar performance, and yet you follow the market response to and the market's telling you that much of what you're saying is well understood and well-priced.

05. And now we're starting to get our hands around what the transition is going to look like to Rubin from here, starting to understand potential constraints, maybe even deceleration in Camp X from here. Dan, what's your response to all of those things? Yeah, my reason to be if you look at physical air today, it's less than 3% of revenues.

06. Print media and I could argue it's probably me 15 to 20%. When you look at the next four years that's now factored in. The industry continues to beat them out over the last few years. And they do. They underestimate what the demand is going to look like. And when you look at the trillions of dollars of spending over the next four years, there's one ship in the world, few in it, but it's the derivative impacts.

07. And then Jensen hit on in terms of the software doomsday trade right now, coal, the air, goose trade. I mean, software is going to play a huge role in terms of the use cases. And that's and that's another ripple effect in terms of the air. Dan, the fact that they had 75% margins to be in the case, they can charge whatever they want, that the demand is so great that they can raise prices significantly more than their input costs.

08. And I just wonder where is the competitive mode around that? Right. I mean, how much better are there chips right now that allow them to charge whatever they want at a time where AMD is trying to come after them? Broadcom is trying to fashion chips from Microsoft and Google and all the others in order to compete with them.

09. Where we are right now is their world. Everyone else is paying. Right. And I think if you were, I'd see there by 3 to 4 years ahead of any competitor with their third read chip in each 200 restricted in China, even though obviously no revenues that's better than what they probably by a year or two. You know obviously competition is going to continue to increase over time.

10. Big tech will build their own chips. But right now demand supply is 12 to 1 for NVIDIA chips and that's one. When you look at those margins, you look at numbers. I mean, the fact that this is a stock is under 200 relative to where I think all earnings is going to play out. Now, I continue to view it as a table pounder named despite obviously a muted reaction, at least initially.

11. Well, then how much do you see actually some competition being posed from the others? AMD got a lot of attention this week due to their arrangement with Metta. I just wonder, given how much they have raised prices and given the fact that not everybody needs a michael Jordan, some people just need an average college coach or even a high school coach to help them get to the next phase of a technology.

12. I mean, where do you see some of the pull coming from in terms of competitors? Yeah, I mean, again, even video is the Jordan like and you could be the Scottie Pippen, right? I mean, the point is like Andy is going to play a huge role. Micron is going to play a role. You will go down like in terms of TSMC and just the whole derivatives on the supply chain.

13. Look, obviously Intel is trying to get into the game, but the reality is that everybody is so far ahead. But but you think about the spillover. Many can't get enough chips in media. They're going to have to go to R&D. And that's why AMD is one of our, you know, the A13 and the core winner in terms everything Lisa Su's doing, it speaks to just this overall market opportunity.

14. You're going to have trillions of dollars spent and also of every dollar spent on Nvidia chips or even overall CapEx 8 to 0 multiply across the rest of the tech. That speaks to what our view is on saw for an infrastructure street is massively mispricing the ripple effects. It's going to happen here and risk of totally to rounding the conversation and pulling a take.

15. Everyone wants to know who Dennis Rodman is. Now, Dan, who's Dennis Rodman of the chip? Well, I mean, look at it. Look, I think if you do Dennis Rodman here, that probably be the talent here. Yeah. If I can put that in there to maybe go into that. Now, that's a good response. I think that I like that.

16. I'm actually I'm impressed on the spot with that. And maybe the Steve Kerr would be the Microsoft. There we go. Something sensible that makes sense.