저자: AliCormanKentri · 외국인
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5/15 시장은 CPI가 예상에 부합하고 소매판매가 예상보다 약해 금리 인하 기대가 커지며 나스닥·S&P500·다우가 신고가를 경신했다. 10년물 금리와 달러 약세가 하락했고, 주택건설주(ITB +3.7%)와 건축자재주(AAC +5.8%)가 강세였다. 브로드컴은 돌파 신호 후 상승했고, 엔비디아는 다음 주 실적 발표를 앞두고 돌파 여부가 관건으로 언급됐다. 쿡 시장 폭은 나스닥에서 상대적으로 약했다.
다듬은 글
good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today it's Ali Corman kentri here with a breakdown of the action in today's session Wednesday May 15th where the Bulls are running Ken strong gains new highs what's not to like what's not to like yeah all-time highs for the NASDAQ S&P 500 and uh Dow Jones uh we'll talk about the economic data in just a little bit but three stocks I want to talk about really good day for the home builders let's take a look at lenar Len uh also want to take a look at a stock in the building sector uh ASAC a ZK and then finally in the chip sector broadcom avgo sounds like a plan Ken we'll get to those stocks but first let's take a look at the major indexes the NASDAQ leading the way with a gain of 1.4% today the S&P 500 up 1.2% the Russell 2000 today with a 1% gain getting above 2100 and the Dow with a gain of about 91 of a percent as you mentioned also joining the NASDAQ and S&P 500 at new highs so we've come roaring back but uh today this move definitely was sparked by some favorable economic data yeah I mean really no no big surprises in the Consumer Price Index we had the latest reading on wholesale uh prices yesterday and then we had the Consumer Price Index uh today so every single component of the Consumer Price Index basically came in in line with expectations so no uh no big surprise uh obviously consumers are still dealing with high prices out there uh core prices which exclude food and energy on a year-over-year basis they're still up 3.6% uh uh down a little bit from 3.8% uh the prior month so no big surprises um in the uh in the CPI data and then we had weaker than expected retail sales so again the fed you know uh bad news is actually good news for the Fed so even though retail S Sales were a little worse than expected um you know the FED wants to to see SL some some signs of a Slowdown here we've been talking about looking for signs of softness in the labor market um that has been a long time coming but the weaker than expected retail sales also fueled some buy uh some buying you had a lot of weakness in the US dollar and a big drop in that 10-year treasury yield okay so we can take a look at that here too yeah big drop there Ken so finishing the day around 4.36 or so yeah down about 10 uh 10 basis points or so and you can see kind of coming right into a a long-term support level here that dark line is the the 200 day uh moving price average of that 10-year yield so we'll see if it uh kind of bottoms uh near here but stocks certainly were encouraged by the big drop in interest rates and really the the the tame consumer prices and the the weaker than expected retail sales data just raises the likelihood uh that the FED uh will be cutting uh rates this year and maybe that First Rate cut will come at the September uh the September meeting all right we will have to see about that okay and I think something else just to add context before we get into to individual stocks can is whether you're looking at the NASDAQ or the S&P 500 of course you know big milestone we're back at uh all-time highs the 21 day back above the 50-day line so we've had this green light for investors and it seems like today underneath the surface there were a lot of stocks acting right and coming from a lot of different groups so that breadth seemed like it was there yeah I think uh perfect example on IBD live uh this morning I mean we we had no shortage of stocks uh to to talk about so you know we often talk about the fact that when you're in a a healthy Market you know the the the market tends to serve up a lot of buying opportunities on a silver platter sometimes you may seem like you're in a good Market but you know new buys are kind of hard to find but today uh I agree broad-based uh strength even the NYSC composite which we don't look at uh very much that's a zero NYC uh this is a very broad-based index like the NASDAQ Composite but you can see this uh made a nice uh nice move as as well uh into all-time high uh territory so I think the Dow might have hit an all-time high just by a couple of points uh it wasn't it was close but uh I think it uh two two points or so maybe here yeah two points or so but it does look like an all-time CL closing high so broad-based strength I will say you know I mean we've been kind of you know complaining about breath a little while even though the the it has gotten a lot better even today uh advancers only beat decliners by less than two to one in other words it wasn't even two to one positive on the NASDAQ so that was a little uh peculiar to me on such a strong update for the NASDAQ breath on the NYSC was a little better than uh than than two to one so I would call breath on the NASDAQ disappointing but uh the overall day uh very bullish and a lot of a lot of good movers below the surface yeah absolutely and you mentioned the 10-year yield and the dollar so I should have looked at it earlier but here it is now a big move down in that too along with the yields yeah it's interesting that both uh both the tenure yield and the this uup the The Long Dollar ETF are kind of coming into some uh some key support levels here for for the uh uup that we're looking at now uh that is uh coming right down to its 50-day moving average so maybe it uh it finds uh support here but clearly the market you know liked like the drop in the dollar and like the drop in that 10 year yield as well all right let's now take a look at ITB because what's a group that also responds favorably when you start seeing interest rates come down home builders so here's a look at ITB up 3.7% today a nice move yeah kind of broke out of a little mini uh downtrend here you can see it broke above last week's um last week's high and there was a little volume uh in the ITB as well today you can see volume Rose quite a bit from uh Tuesday's level above average so uh yeah I think the homeb Building Group in our database we have 197 groups that we uh track and the Home Building Group was uh maybe the third or fourth best performer up uh three and a half to 4% today so home builders some of the big Winners today so speaking of let's take a look at lenar in that group group uh nice outsized move here today outperforming that group up about five and a quarter of a percent in some strong volume today Ken yeah it was really hard to keep track of all the movers in the in the Home Building Group we actually added a home builder uh to to a leaderboard U uh today uh that was uh actually kbh KB I was looking at toll but yeah K there was a lot of a lot of good movers uh today and you can see be home was so strong it you know finished near its high it's just past that 5% uh buy Zone but uh I thought lenar it was really you know take your pick there were just a lot of lot of really good movers here so I thought Lenard's move was was pretty uh impressive as well hasn't fully broken out here I think it was a clear Buy Signal today but you can see it's just below that uh left side high so maybe it uh maybe it drifts lower here uh but this Market is so strong you know we're seeing big days like this often followed up by another big day so it could it could follow through uh tomorrow but uh you know lower interest rate environment good news for the home builders and uh boy the the whole group just took off today exactly yeah and it's not just the builders it's uh a lot of Building Products firms as well in this themes so let's go to AEK getting back above its 50-day line today a move of about 5.8% some heavy volume here too yeah also in the in the building uh building sector you can see they do uh basically building products for not residential and Commercial uh markets uh but this is I think a stock worth uh worth watching the industry group is still you know filled with with leaders uh you can tell that by you know the rank of 22 out of 197 uh so AAC is a is a good one to watch here I think it was an early Buy Signal for for some Traders today uh it is another name uh to to watch to see if it uh just can can keep moving higher here and maybe it'll uh get a little resistance at 50 and drift lower but I think it's still a high quality name that has done very well uh with recent breakouts so we'll see if this is going to make more more progress towards that 50 level um you know composite rating of uh of 96 accumulation distribution rating of D minus that's skewed a little bit um in fact if you go to the weekly chart here uh for AAC I want to just uh yeah you see that uh that that big uh down week in in heavy volume was actually a support week right so it looks like um you know that that was actually pretty pretty solid action on on the weekly chart of support week means the stock closed lower but finished all the way up near its weekly high in in good volume so I think overall this uh this pattern looks good and I'm not worried about that heavy volume decline last week because again it rallied up near highs and it ended up being a support week yeah exactly and three tight closes in there as well so that also bullish okay let's round things out with a look at avgo this is broadcom full disclosure I bought this one yesterday so looking pretty good here in the chip sector Ken with a gain of about 4.1% today yeah and I think I think actually the Buy Signal was yesterday because you had a nice clean breakout over a trend line so yesterday maybe a setup day and then you know volume came into the stock uh again today and here here it is uh uh just right at the top of of a base here so uh we're going to hear from Applied Materials uh tomorrow not in the same Industry Group as as broadcom but still a chip uh Bell weather like like broadcom is so um Applied Materials acting well ahead of its earnings report tomorrow uh but aago I think uh or broadcom uh used to be called avago Technologies wondering when they're going to change their ticker symbol but right uh yeah so but broadcom is definitely uh you know name worth watching here again just kind of right up against that left side High you know it's probably buyable now or it it could drift a little lower here and maybe see slightly lower entry exactly I think move above 1,400 and change with that resistance there uh potential opportunity to add and then maybe top it off with a full-fledged breakout so we'll have to see what we get there is a risk on the table next week with group Pier nvidia's earnings so we'll we'll have to see let's pull up Nvidia real quick too because that made a that made a noteworthy move uh as well today I mean this was a little mini breakout you can see over the past five six days or so it was just kind of you know drifting sideways forming what we call a little last ShakeOut a little handle area holding support and uh makes a nice move today volume still below average but much much higher than the prior uh three up sessions so um Nvidia earnings next week will definitely be a a market mover yeah uh potentially make or break time for this so a breakout or a fake what are we going to get Ken I don't know uh well you know listen I'm look I was looking at the uh the estimates you know we have we have estimates in uh in marketsmith so you go to the weekly chart for NVIDIA and you they're expected to report another triple digit uh uh quarter so I mentioned earlier this week HSBC came out with a raise their price Target to more than 1300 saying that uh fundamentals haven't really been fully priced in here so you can see the earnings growth 47 4% that's what they're expected to to show and revenue uh more than uh more than tripling so pretty pretty impressive numbers here yeah love that we can see that right there on the market surge charts we'll be watching closely all right thank you Ken and thanks everyone for tuning in that is it from us for today but we will be back with more tomorrow morning on IBD live so make sure to tune in investors.com IBD live for all the details we'll see you there and then we'll also see you right back here tomorrow after the close is
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