저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시장 리스크의 핵심은 이탈리아가 아니라 금리 인상이며, 연내 추가 긴축과 정치·무역 불확실성 속에 연말 주가 상승폭은 제한적(약 0~10% 범위, 당시 약 5%)이라는 신중론. 이탈리아 정치 불안: 시장이 과도하게 반영하고 있다고 봄. 그리스 사태 때와 달리 이탈리아 국민은 유로 탈퇴를 원하지 않으며, 1950~60년대 리라 인플레이션 기억 때문에 건전한 통화를 선호한다는 근거를 제시. 연준 정책: FOMC 의사록을 지나치게 비둘기파적으로 읽는 시장 참가자가 많다고 지적. 올해 금리 3회 인상(이전 3회 포함 가능성)을 여전히 예상하나 이는 소수 의견으로 인정. 이번 주 금요일 고용지표(실업률, 임금, 비농업 고용)가 중요한 변수라고 언급. 무역 갈등: 예측이 어려운 변수이나 대체로 해결될 것으로 보며, 농촌 지지층의 반발로 트럼프 행정부가 관세에 신중할 것이라고 전망. 북한 문제도 불확실성 요인으로 언급. 트럼프 정책: 친기업·저세율·저규제 기조는 시장에 긍정적이라고 평가. 연말 전망: 2018년 주식시장은 0~10% 상승 범위로 예상했고, 당시 약 5% 수준. 금리 인상, 11월 중간선거 불확실성(민주당 하원 탈환 가능성), 세금 감면 효과의 2018년 선반영(2019년 감익 우려)이 향후 6개월 상승을 제약할 것이라고 봄. 출연자 전망: 전반적으로 신중(cautious) 태도 유지.
다듬은 글
welcome to trade nation I'm Sara Eisen stocks are rebounding and day after Italy's political turmoil rattled the market but could sharp gain stick wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel is here with some answers welcome professor Siegel nice to see you happy to be here so last time we talked to you mid-april here for trading nation you were pretty cautious on the markets has anything changed no it hasn't really changed i I think Italy is being overplayed I don't think that's the major threat of the market I still think the major threat of the market is higher interest rates going forward I think that too many people read the FOMC minutes as being too dovish I still think though now I'm definitely in the minority that they will hike three more times this year three before that that's like that's not the consensus yes no longer the consensus certainly moved sharply lower with what the what is going on all the news from Italy and that's sharp we lowered that expectation but I don't think that's going to do much for the strong jobs picture we have I think this Friday is very important again to see what's gonna happen unemployment rate what's going to happen to wages and of course the non-farm payroll why do you think the market is overestimating the impact of Italy whether it's in financial markets are on Fed policy given last time this happened about seven years ago with Greece it did provoke a pretty big market reaction for prolonged period of time and led the Fed to change course well if you remember actually I was I was on CNBC two years ago when brexit occurred and I said that no other nation was going to leave the euro I said if Greece didn't leave the euro no other nation that's the nation that really needed to yet it didn't have the courage to do so and to stop despite all the posturing of the.you know the our left far-right parties the Italian public did not want to leave the euro I actually thought that matter Ella's dismissal of the president was not a good political move I think the coalition probably would have collapsed on its own but nonetheless they wouldn't have left the euro now he just mixes up the populist feeling again and when I probably get new elections and etc but the truth of the matter is the memories of the lira there were thousands to the dour they inflated dramatically in the 1950s and 60s and the amount the Italian public has memories or their parents have memories they don't want to go back to that and despite all the drawbacks of the euro they'd rather stick with sound currency rather than go to another lira do you not think that the trade tensions which are proving somewhat unpredictable from the administration will also impact financial markets and the Fed policy yeah absolutely I mean that is wild card and it has been a wild card for the last three months I mean the betting is still there's going to be a resolution without the tremendous disruption I mean I do think that Trump is getting some negative feedback from some of his political support in the farm country rural countries about some of the tariffs that have been added he I think feels he has to tread very very carefully on this doesn't mean for sure you know he won't go full or full blast forward but my feeling is is that the caution cautions going to be the word here yeah and of course we have North Korea situation he may have himself in a little bit of a bind there because I think he's got expectations of the public up and he doesn't want to - those either there's goal with Trump there's always going to be uncertainty into the mix the thing that's positive is that he is pro-business he is Pro low taxes low regulations and to the market that's that's the most important thing so I'm going to pin you down here we were just showing 27:25 do you have a prediction about where it's going to end the year well last December I said it's going to be a tougher year 2018 and 17 I said we're going to be zero to ten percent I guess we're about five now I actually haven't checked it I think we could be just about in this range because not only going to have interest rates I think rising as I said I still think for rate hikes we're gonna have the political uncertainty midterm elections are less than six months away Democrats are favored by the shrewd betters to take over the house more uncertainty there and then also my feeling is is a lot of the earnings boost which is this is a great year for earnings no one argues with that but the tax cut is front-loaded which means that the write-offs on capital equipment are going to accrue to 2018 and not nearly as much in 2019 I think those estimates are going to be brought down so those three factors are going to pretty much stall out much of a increase I think that we that we hope for for the next six months a very cautious sounding Jeremy Siegel thank you thank you nice to see you from Wharton today and thank you all for watching trading nation I'm Sara Eisen we'll see you next tim
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