저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 과거 투자 실패 사례를 분석하고 교훈을 정리한 영상. 결론: 과거 실패 사례(타깃, 허벌라이프, 밸리언트)를 통해 경영진과의 목표 불일치, 확신 없는 베팅, 질문 있는 회사 투자의 위험을 배우자는 내용. 2014년 상당한 성과 후 2015~2016년 큰 손실(2015년 약 -13.5%, 2016년 약 -20%)을 기록했다고 설명. 타깃: 2007년 약 20억 달러를 투자해 부동산 분리 등 가치 개선을 추진했으나 경영진과 충돌, 프록시 전쟁 끝에 이사회 진입 실패, 2011년 지분 매각. 허벌라이프: 2012년 약 10억 달러 규모 공매도(다단계 사기 주장), FTC 조사에서 혐의 미확인으로 주가 반등, 2017년 매도 시 약 5억~10억 달러 손실 추정. 밸리언트: 2015년 약 33억 달러 투자 후 가격 조작·회계 의혹으로 붕괴, 2017년 매도 시 약 40억 달러 손실 추정. 교훈: 경영진 역량만으로 가치가 보장되지 않고, 규제·정치 등 외부 요인과 불확실성을 고려해야 하며, 강한 경영진도 실수할 수 있다는 점. 애크먼 본인도 2000년대 이후 단순·예측 가능한 자유현금흐름 창출 기업, 진입장벽, 낮은 외부 리스크, 강한 재무구조, 우수한 지배구조라는 8가지 원칙으로 복귀했다고 언급. 대상 자산 중 직접적인 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 출연자 전망은 과거 회고 중심이며 미래 가격 예측은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome to just invest today and in today's video we're going to be analyzing bill ackman yes bill ackman is an amazing investor and he's like an investor that you guys should be looking up to because he's made very good investments but in today's video we want to know what he did wrong so we can learn from those mistakes remember learning from these mistakes that these investors make are going to make us better investors so we do not make those same mistakes so in this video we're going to learn from the mistakes that bill achman made so in 2014 bill ackman had really good success in the market i think he beat the market better around 30 to 40 in the market so he had really good returns beating out the smp but then in 2015 in 2016 he had really strong struggles so in 2015 he had like a negative 13.5 uh percent on his investments and then in 2016 he had like around a negative 20 on his investments so let's look at what he did wrong in some of these investments so in this first part i'm going to give you my thoughts on what i think bill ackman did wrong and then we're going to hear from bill ackman himself on what he did to improve his stock returns in the future in 2018 2019 2020 and what he did right so in 2007 bill ackman invested around two billion dollars into target so target was underperforming the market and he thought he could actually move it around have a shake up in the stock and see if he can uncover some value in target and in 2011 he actually decided to sell the shares because you got to think about it he is an activist investor so he tries to be really active he tries to get on the management side of the investment so when he did this he got into a little proxy war with target because target didn't really want him on the board because he thought he could unlock some value because remember target was on some a lot of land and he thought he could under lock some value by putting it into a real estate trust to get some value in that get some more buybacks and stuff like that so actually what happened what actually happened was that didn't happen it didn't go the way he wanted it to go so they got into a proxy war went to court he couldn't get on the board and he actually did not unlock the value that he wanted to so then he showed his shares four years later in that investment so guys even though target had a lot of value we got to make sure that our goals are the same as management goals because in this story bill ashman's goals were not the same as management goals he had a different set of ideas than what management had and that's when all the legal battles came about and everything came about so when we think about this you got to think about it like we just want to buy very good companies that are doing very well already with the same goals as us as management because trying to turn around a company is very hard to do um so we got to look at these companies with competitive advantages so we don't have to really turn them around we can just look for the short-term problem that's going to be fixed very soon and we're going to gain that all the all that way back because remember target had to deal with walmart which walmart was a big juggernaut at that time so you got to think about that too so in 2012 bill ackman actually made a big investment he actually shorted herbalife he thought that herbalife was actually running a pyramid scheme so that was his thesis for his shorting of the stock so when you show the stock you got to make sure that you know what you're doing so i wouldn't recommend shorting a stock but bob ackman is a very good investor and he actually thought that herbalife was running a pyramid scheme so that so he put a short position into that so that was his thesis on the stock at that time so that one billion dollar short position created a lot of drama in the market and it sends shares flying down because the federal trade commission actually wanted to investigate what the herbalife was doing seeing that actually was running a pyramid scheme so that send the shares flying down and they released an investigation i think it lasted around like two years and it came up they weren't carl icahn actually didn't believe that uh bill ackman's thesis and actually went against him and actually invested in the company so ba so uh carl icahn and bill ackman had a lot of exchanging of words and they're fighting each other claiming no this is a short position and kakan's like no this is a strong company in 2014 when the ftc didn't find anything wrong with herbalife the stock actually shot right back up they found no allegations of a pyramid scheme they didn't find any fault in the company's accounting practices or anything like that so bill ackman's bet on what he thought was it could be a major collapse because they're running a scheme did not work out so in around 2017 he actually decided to sell his position and he kind of he i think he lost around 500 million to one billion dollars on his investment so guys even though i don't recommend short positions on stocks i still want to look at the mistake that he made on this investment i felt like that he was just assuming what the stock was going to happen and what was going to happen but he didn't know for sure so he was kind of guessing when we invest we want to have some kind of certainty that our projections our thesis is right so we really want to ask the question can we see this company is this company going to be bigger in five years guaranteed yes or no when we can answer that question then we can put our money into that company if it's at a good price but we have to answer that question first before we make an investment we can assume and kind of predict or try to act like we know what's going to happen but as long as we think the company is going to be bigger in five years that stock is going to be going up because we're always thinking long term when we're making investments so one of the last mistakes bill ackman made was actually investing in a pharmaceutical company called valiant values basically was making genetic drugs and uh for gastrointestinal issues skin diseases and yeah they're making drugs for those type of issues and in 2015 he actually invested 3.3 billion dollars into this company so during this time that um bill ackman invested in this company it got caught with a lot of what questionable things it was doing questions about pricing practices and improper accounting allegations within months the company was collapsing valiant was soon under fire for boosting drug prices pushing them through dubious methods that were not completely disclosed to investors there were so many questions over the company's accounting practices as well so all that stuff actually hurt the stock price for valiant and bill ackman still supported the company he didn't really believe in any of that so he kept investing into that company even though they were doing a lot of questionable things that kind of dropped the share price that people didn't really believe in so around 2017 bill ackman actually decided to sell this company he actually got a 4 billion loss and it was just too much problems with this company there's too many issues and too much uncertainty with this company um a lot of debt few acquisitions and just dubious stuff that they were doing and he decided not to believe them as much anymore so he sold those shares even though bill ackman lost a lot of money on this investment he actually came out learning a lot about this investment and what he can do in the future to make sure he doesn't make these mistakes again so he found out that managers confidence in deploying capital doesn't always translate into value added for a business change in regulations politics and other intrinsic factors can always be accounted for knowing what you don't know is always something sometimes hard to find strong management teams can still make mistakes charlie says you want a company that a fool can run because one day a fool will finding companies with strong most can still do well even with bad management at the helm so these are things that we got to look out for and this is what he learned with this valiant investment even after all these bad mistakes that bill ackman made let's hear from him see what he has to say about this as investors we always gotta get back to the basics of what we did before and how we can keep those returns so let's talk about for a moment um some of the campaigns you've done as activists some of them have worked out some have not uh chipotle has seemed to have worked out but you did a couple that were difficult ones or herbalife or valiant uh they didn't work out what would you say is the mistake you made in hindsight and that you would try to avoid in the future sure so there's sort of eight principles that have driven our investment success and when we have veered from those eight principles uh we've lost money and uh after the uh two thousand we went through a very difficult period circa 2015 2016 the two investments you mentioned were big drivers of that it was uh you know if you will experiences making mistakes and learning from them and it was a moment of reflection for the firm and i went back to the core principles that have driven our success for the first 12 years and i had a member of the investment team literally engraved them in a stone tablet not dissimilar from moses's ten commandments and i had that stone tablet put in what you might call a deal toy sits onto everyone's desk in the office and uh we've adhered to those principles you know ever since and you know we've been fortunate uh to return to the success we had for the first uh dozen years so i think it's about keeping to your our principles are basically one invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that are in high returns on capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical um but you know occasionally we've diverged and there's uh those times you know there's a certain discipline that comes with investments and there always seems to be a countervailing quality that caused us to diverge but in really each case we've compromised on business quality or complexity we've been harmed from an investment standpoint if you like what i have to say can you please like this video and subscribe to my channel and i'll get you back at the next video later
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