저자: Kevin · 외국인
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블룸버그 칼럼을 인용해 테슬라에 대한 혐오가 근거 없으며 실적(매출총이익률 26%, 순이익률 16~17%)이 경쟁사를 압도한다고 주장. 발표자는 2025년 500달러, 2030년 1500달러 목표가를 언급하고 자신의 25년 목표가가 500달러라고 밝힘. 20% 마진 시나리오 모델링으로 주당 가치 민감도를 설명. 태양광 차량·선박은 실용성이 낮다고 평가.
다듬은 글
now we've got to touch on a Tesla and a price Target by a company that has billions of dollars under not only management but specifically in Tesla stock we're going to go through what their price Target is for both 2025 and 2030. but first what I'd like to do is look at an opinion piece by a balloonberg uh journalist and I have to say it's pretty good I think it really hits on some sentiment and I love the title musk has turned Tesla's quote failing into winning and really what what he's starting off by saying is that there's so much fear uncertainty and doubt that's placed on Tesla that it's almost like the old Shakespearean line of me thinks thou protest too much I've changed that slightly but that's what we generally colloquially say uh and that's really to say that it seems like so much of the hate for Tesla is misplaced now there's so much criticism while at the same time as there's so much criticism you end up with a company that outperforms over and over and over again it's really incredible I mean I have to say from a personal point of view uh I I could not believe when somebody came up to me and said that they actually uninstalled Twitter solely because of Elon Musk that they won't buy a Tesla solely because of Elon Musk and I'm thinking to myself like how much CNN are you watching because the hate is totally misplaced they can't actually give you a really good reason for hating on Tesla one of the things people do who hate on Tesla is they talk about uh recalls and and I love this this was a fantastic uh quote here it was actually from a Forbes article Sawyer Merit here uh quoted this Forbes piece it was fantastic since January 2022 Tesla has had quote 21 or quote unquote recalls for about 4.1 million vehicles with some Vehicles counted multiple times 99 of those Vehicles were fixed using a software update that did not require customers to go into a dealership or replace car parts and remember like when you get a recall for a car it is an opportunity for the dealership to sell you more service right so in some regard the recall game is actually profitable for companies they get people to bring their cars into the dealership thinking they're getting something for free but of course when you go in inconveniently taking time obviously out of your day to actually go there and do it and have somebody drive you back and drop you off or whatever you actually often get sold some form of other upgrades or service because you may as well get that additional service done because you're already there you've already gone through the inconvenience of going there so the sunk cost fallacy sets in people are more likely to spend money on their vehicles because they're already there but going back to the rest of this tweet right here from this Forbes piece meanwhile Fiat Chrysler Kia Hyundai VW BMW had no software fixes and Ford Nissan GM and Mercedes did have software fixes but they were able to only fix one percent of the Ford recalls two percent of the Nissan recalls 32 percent of the GM recalls and 17 of the Mercedes recalls were fixed via software updates whereas again with Tesla 99 of Teslas were fixed using some form of software update here's that Forbes piece by the way if you want to look at it Tesla recalls 4 million Vehicles since January of 2022.
you could uh read the rest of that Forbes article if you'd like but really there there does seem to be this hysteria around hating Tesla and what's remarkable is despite all of this hate somehow Tesla continues to get stronger and this is what the Bloomberg writer here is saying while everyone thought musk's entanglement with Twitter would be damaging to Tesla or the recall fod the uh you know business practices lawsuits whatever what you end up getting are results that prove otherwise Tesla they say is now turning 100 of Revenue into an industry-leading 26 dollars of profit for their per uh for gross profit now keep in mind that is expected to go down to about twenty dollars so I don't want anybody to freak out when we see margin potentially go down to twenty dollars at least in the next few quarters after some of the price reductions that we've seen and until some of those uh commodity costs actually start flowing through is lower borrowing any for further increases keep in mind the Tesla in their last earnings call told us this they told us they expect to potentially see gross profit go down to twenty dollars and then of course the goal would be to see that rise back to thirty dollars about that thirty percent margin but even at twenty six dollars this is seen as the widest gross margin uh really in the industry and if you look at their net profit margin the way this they wrote this and then showed a chart here was a little confusing but this chart right here here is actually a chart of their net profit margin Tesla's net profit margin far exceeds any of its competitors and what you really want to pay attention to is byd is right here on the right it's this Orange Line let's go let's use the laser here there we go uh it's this orange line right here you can see that their net at least on this chart here for last year sitting somewhere under five percent right around three to four percent is where byd sits Volkswagen knocking on the door of uh probably what half of that maybe maybe somewhere around two percent uh Toyota is over a little bit higher at about seven percent uh and Tesla on a net basis is sitting up here at uh 16 to 17 net that's really incredible now what's also really incredible is you just had the uh the the uh who was it uh uh yeah toy Mr toyoda who is the CEO over at Toyota he ended up saying hey about a month ago he was interviewed and and the Wall Street Journal ran this story he ended up saying ah I'm part of the silent majority everybody wants a hybrid car this is Toyota often regularly deemed one of the most reliable vehicles in the industry right uh vehicle manufacturers in the industry with some of the highest resale values they're convinced on hybrids yet within a month of that it turns out he's getting the boot and they're replacing him with a CEO who realizes no no we need to double down on electric vehicles not just hybrids but let's keep going with the with the Bloomberg piece here so you've got 30 analysts have a buy recommendation on Tesla a record for the company since their IPO in 2010 number of upgrades on the company Rose a 32 last year even though Tesla share price is plummeted 65 percent amid a nasty bear market for Tech related stocks Bloomberg's consensus rating which quantifies analyst forecast reveals no other automaker was so emphatically upgraded perhaps the reason why analysts are so enamored is because Tesla continues to prove doubters wrong and these were some interesting quotes here listen to this model 3 sedan sales increased from basically zero to about half a million units in 2022 uh they had so they had less than 2 000 in 2017 ran that up 278 times to about half mil in 2022.
I don't think it's in necessarily really fair to use that 278 number because obviously if I mean you could just say they increase sales infinitely from zero right but from a comparison point of view it's very interesting that the Toyota Prius has seen its sales Fall 66 during the same period And while the next biggest arrival for electric vehicles saw their sales at byd rise just 17 times now byd is crushing it okay don't get me wrong anyway he's crushing it they do not have anywhere near the margin Tesla does they have somewhere around one-fourth to one-fifth of the net margin we just saw that on the prior chart but anyway uh this was this is pretty remarkable and and I think they make a really good argument here that hey look despite all of the hate around Tesla Tesla's killing it but beyond that some of the price targets from people with massive amounts of money like Baron funds which is billions of dollars of assets under management are really incredible let's take a look at some of these price targets so this is a um uh you could actually read this full article in uh Seeking Alpha uh anyway uh the baron funds letter was was posted here and they talk a little bit about the history of them investing in Tesla first making uh 1.6 percent of their asset under management uh uh purchase into Tesla back in 2016.
uh and since then obviously a Tesla has grown substantially they did end up selling around 6.8 million shares between 2020 and 2022 about a fourth of their shares to reduce their allocation to Tesla because it ran so much their average cell was about 221 a share slightly above where it sits now uh and and of course this was over the last two years here but they still hold 17.6 million shares of Tesla which is valued at about 3.1 billion dollars pretty remarkable but look at their price target for the baron fund and and it's just the show this is you know when people are bullish in the industry it's it's really interesting to see if they're actually putting their money where their mouth is and here's an example where they are we believe Tesla's share price would reach 500 per share in 2025.
now I'll try to Pat myself on the back here but that happens to be my price target for 2025. maybe they're watching my videos if you are I'd love to do an interview with y'all and if you're not that's okay because I don't want to read my own opinion I want to read other people's opinions uh but anyway uh and their 2030 price Target which I don't really have a 20 30 price Target uh I mean I I've mentioned some out there there's somewhere out there we've done some numbers on in the past but it's not super Salient in the back of my mind but anyway 1500 is there 20 30 price Target and they are still reiterating that price Target today that's based on our expectations for Tesla's long-term sales growth High industry-leading profit margins achieved for its exceptional products not only are there approximately 80 million cars sold per year but the quote car park worldwide that needs to be replaced is more than 2 billion Vehicles these are cars powered by pollution emitting ice engines internal combustion engines I mean that's kind of like saying an ATM machine right automated teller machine machine right it's ice engine is kind of like internal combustion engine engines now we gotta be careful on that but anyway uh if you just say ice it sounds a little funny so anyway gas cars gas guzzlers Fair simpler anyway this is pretty remarkable and a remarkable price Target and it makes sense I mean after all the profit margins alone speak for themselves at Tesla where is it where oh they were on my uh in my Bloomberg piece stand by uh the charts over here are ones that we talk about regularly at Tesla and we could really use these and and model uh some of the more in my opinion worst case scenarios with with Tesla pricing by seeing hey how what does tests look like even if we end up with only a 20 margin in potentially lower growth rates right uh and so if we do that well let's model it together let's see what we get so let's go to a 20 uh gross margin let's assume 20 vehicles uh or over here by 2025 let's assume 4 million vehicles and we'll go with uh 47 000 Revenue per vehicle we'll keep everything kind of stable here uh that we generally do so sort of re-explaining this whole sheet again if we go with just a 20 gross margin which is pretty weak we expect that to rise up to 30 percent again the end of the decade maybe within the next few years who knows uh at uh at a 30 percent assumed growth rate which is lower than that's probably the lowest part of the range that that Wall Street is generally expecting you're still sitting at about 400 bucks per share at a 30 growth rate and then a 1.67 x Peg which is a very reasonable ratio very very reasonable for for a company growing at 30 to be selling for 1.67 times Peg we're closer to like point eight point point nine right now on on what Tesla's selling for uh but it's it's a long-term average is substantially even above 1.6 but anytime anyway so if we just change that to where the margin is approximately right now and we go to say uh oh I don't know let's go with an expense of 74 that gives us profit of about 26 so if we go with about a 26 margin uh that number changes to 533 bucks pretty quickly but you could see how every one percent makes a difference you have 533 bucks we just change margin one percent uh 533 turns into 511.
so you're looking about 20 every one percent of margin at Tesla is worth about 22 dollars per share it's quite a bit because that margin is going to fluctuate and I do think there's going to be some fear around what happens in the q1 Q2 earnings for Tesla uh specifically because marginal probably be its weakest during those quarters and those will be quarters that uh that that were also still evaluating hey is inflation ever going to go away is the Fed ever going to relax so uh these These are uh you know these these are things to uh pay attention to uh from some comments here uh we've got someone saying Mr Toyota is a genius slash sarcasm someone's laughing too how much a CNN are you watching I mean I hate to say it but they seem to be one of the pure ones that seem to be bagging on them pretty pretty heavily here have you guys seen The Electric solar powered Yachts you know I think I hate to say it but I think a lot of anything any solar powered engine for now probably just clickbait most of the solar power that we can actually support on any kind of vehicle right now just goes into pre-conditioning cabin temperatures for either cars or boats uh you know anything widely if it's if it's powered solely by solar it'd probably take you know 12 hours or more of sitting in the sun potentially days of sitting in the sun to actually fill up your batteries is it possible yeah I mean to some regard we could put a Tesla you could put a solar panel on a Tesla and potentially charge the sucker up if it sits out in the sun for a couple weeks you know I mean eventually it'll it'll it'll charge it up solar power isn't quite there uh for for compact form factors yet now can you do it with solar Farms absolutely big fan big fan of solar forms I think we should have a lot more solar Farms out in in uh you know the desert areas of California or Vegas we've already got solar Farms but we should have even more I think that's a phenomenal way to do it and now you're also producing solar at scale throwing solar panels on on smaller Vehicles though I think is mostly just click bait and and trying to make people you know be able to say oh I'm green you know that'd kind of be like oh my jet has a solar panel on it it's like that's it's just it's like [ __ ] excuse me but for for you know the what what it's actually producing so I'm not I'm not a fan or a believer in any kind of solar panels on vehicles and I probably won't be for a very long period of time because the solar panel technology its capture rate is still very very weak I mean its efficiency is gosh a solar panel efficiency has got to be somewhere in the 20 range so it's still really inefficient but what's remarkable is as much as we're seeing solar panels spread imagine if we could just increase the efficiency of solar panels I mean they're already good in in bulk Factor good enough to be on the roof of your house for example good enough to be in a solar in a solar arm not there yet for vehicles but but uh there's so so much potential science that can go into making the capture technology for solar so much better uh that uh that that in the long term there'll be some pretty neat advances and yeah I think in the long term in the future sure solar panel of vehicles I think uh would be a possibility but I don't think we're anywhere close to that I think we're 20 30 years away from seeing that but uh you know it's interesting still interesting anyway uh a yacht was unveiled in Dubai the hull of the art was all solar panels that's interesting thank you for sharing that uh let's not possible smart um you guys still don't buy it especially the hull of the ship I'm like you really need the angle of incidence matters so much and I mean maybe you could argue you're getting some reflectivity off of the water to try to power uh this but I wonder how much how much efficiency Falls now if the hull of the ship instead of you know actually pointing at the sun is exposed to um uh to solar the solar radiation uh that that brings the solar energy I don't know I don't know I'm not buying that one and then and then when I hear Dubai too I'm like okay like a world of like facade man come on and I'm like sorry if you live in Dubai but you probably know it or you've been to Dubai it's all facade uh but anyway so you know what it's very fitting actually that the facade of a solar panel boat was unveiled in Dubai
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